Weekend Sub/Tropical Storm Threat 9/30

0z GGEM is out already?

Euro and CMC have backed off tremendously on the strength of the block to the north with this potential system.  The GFS and CMC/Euro solns seem to have met in the middle of the past 24hrs, developing a system off the SE coast, but looks to be keeping the bulk of, if not the entire system OTS.  I am starting to feel 85% confident in this soln.  Here is the comparisons of last nights 0z's and yesterday eve 0z runs.  The big thing to take notice is to compare how strong the block is to our north from yesterdays runs to last nights.  Because the blocking isn't as strong on last nights run notice the position of the western edge of the ridge is.  As a result of     less blocking notice the position of the trough coming in, and more importantly the eastern edge of the trough does not buckle under the influence giving us a positively oriented trough axis which means progressive steering out in front of it.  
Euro 0z 9/24:

Euro 0z 9/25

Notice just how much stronger and further west the blocking to the north extends on yesterdays 0z.  Same for CMC
0z CMC 9/24

0z CMC 9/25

24-48 more hrs of consistency to the models and it looks like another beautiful weekend for most of our area is on tap, but I will hold off on that call until Thursday.

Wow this is a big change from yesterday and the High/blocking is definitely weaker - yes let's hope that this holds true and the storm moves OTS but only time will tell.

The 6z GFS came west with the system.
At school so can't post a pic or get in depth about changes, but we will have to see how the 12z suite responds. But the GFS has flipped 3 runs in a row now

Yea, the blocking is not as strong and the trough is not as amplified. Still some time to watch this. I'll give it until tomorrow evening. If I had to make a G2H (gun to head) forecast, I would say out to sea.

12z GFS is out to sea with the system. If this system remains out to sea, in which I am now forecasting it to, then we may not see any rain until the October 4th-6th time frame when a cold front comes through.

With the Euro, GEM, and the GFS all way to far offshore to effect us. It looks as if we are in the clear now as long as the 0z suite holds tonight. Thank God. Probably just some rough waves for the surfers to enjoy.

Yes...I'm relieved as well. Looks like the boring stretch of weather continues.

GFS and CMC are still holding onto the idea of a slight retrograde of the system before racing NE putting the LP center somewhere between south of eastern LI to Cape Cod vs the Euro which has none and races it OTS.  If the GFS/CMC track was correct some rain or rain showers, and gusty winds are still possible for the immediate coast line Monday into Tues, esp for eastern half of LI and the SE coast of CT and Mass.  Euro on the other hand keeps the entire area dry.  Since all three models have been somewhat inconsistent with this system Ill wait until Sunday am to completely give up on it.  There is little doubt; however, that minimal impacts for the coast seems like a worst case scenario ATT.
GFS

CMC

Euro

Roc, the CMC is showing a more intense L than the other models and surfs up along the coast!

amugs wrote:Roc, the CMC is  showing a more intense L than the other models and surfs up along the coast!

Mugs the CMC has been notorious all summer for over doing the intensity on bigger systems. I believe this instance is no different. The GFS and Euro never have this thing get below 1000mb vs the CMC has it at like 983mb. If the blocking to the east and North delays the system long enough south of the Cape Hatteras Latitude it has a chance to deepen like the CMC shows because the waters are still pretty warm, but I do not believe this will happen ATT.

Thanks for the info -not that I am going deep sea fishing anytime soon but was just wondering. Interesting how the models interpret the data differently.

Some models are coming in west with the storm. If anything, there will be some rain and windy conditions. Nothing extreme like the EURO was showing 2-3 days ago.