Re: 12/16-12/17 Godzilla: Final Snow Map & Obsevations

by **jmanley32** Thu Dec 17, 2020 2:18 pm

frank 638 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:snow ended, quick band, put down a dusting.
I am in that band right now just got through shoveling I ended up with 11 inches of snow I hope u did great where u are

Amazinf we so close but you got about 3 inches more and your closer to the water, but measuring was hard.

by **RJB8525** Thu Dec 17, 2020 2:21 pm

12/16-12/17 Godzilla: Final Snow Map & Obsevations - Page 31 Oooof10

pretty cool...I'm happy with what i got was just enough anywhere from 6-12 is a good storm to me

by richb521 Thu Dec 17, 2020 2:24 pm

About 7 inches of snow and sleet fell in Hillsborough NJ.

by **aiannone** Thu Dec 17, 2020 2:34 pm

After the last band that just came through ended with 8” here in St James. Not bad for the set up in place

by **sroc4** Thu Dec 17, 2020 3:03 pm

RJB8525 wrote:
pretty cool...I'm happy with what i got was just enough anywhere from 6-12 is a good storm to me

When you get a LP track up the coast and sit just off the NJ coast and then track ENE inside the bench mark it is extremely rare to see the coastal plain inside the I-95 end up with these sorts of numbers; especially when its only mid December with SST surrounding the coast still in the low to mid 50's. The combo of the Arctic HP due N, and the 50/50-ISH Low truley meant business. Without that combo the vast majority of our coverage area would have had change over, and the coastal plain may have not measured anything. Again very pleased given all the logistics.

12/16-12/17 Godzilla: Final Snow Map & Obsevations - Page 31 Daf83910

by **docstox12** Thu Dec 17, 2020 3:33 pm

Great discussion Doc!
Final tally from trained spotter 13 inches in Monroe NY.Very happy with that considering the bust potentials of dry slotting and warm nosing.
27 degrees, partly cloudy and breezy.

by **Snow88** Thu Dec 17, 2020 4:35 pm

Hey everyone

Glad to be back on it

Ended up with under 8 inches here in Brooklyn.

Very nice storm

by **Taffy** Thu Dec 17, 2020 5:42 pm

Started snowing here at 9:15 pm and stopped today at 2:10. Lot's of wind but not enough to produce blizzard like conditions. Right now 23, real feel 11. Winds North @ 12, gusts to 17.

Total was approx 9".

by **Frank_Wx** Thu Dec 17, 2020 6:22 pm

Snow88 wrote:Hey everyone

Glad to be back on it

Ended up with under 8 inches here in Brooklyn.

Very nice storm

Anthonyyyy ciao. Welcome back

Taffy wrote:Started snowing here at 9:15 pm and stopped today at 2:10. Lot's of wind but not enough to produce blizzard like conditions. Right now 23, real feel 11. Winds North @ 12, gusts to 17.

Total was approx 9".

What’s funny is the GFS had Boston at 0 inches all week until the last 36 hours. That’s how you know the blocking to the north either weakened or moved northeast too quickly.

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Thu Dec 17, 2020 6:37 pm

It don't think I posted my final total but it was 12.2 inches.

Doc received 13 inches and Damian I believe was 14 inches so I appear to the be the low man on the totem pole (is that an expression that's even allowed anymore?) in Orange County this round. I'll get you both next time.

BTW I know we have a lot of HV posters here but for the rest of you that don't post, come out of the shadows.

Speaking of coming out of the shadows the best thing to come out of this storm is the reemergence of SNOWMAN and Taffy. Welcome back both of you. Long time members of the board and of course old OTI Alumni.

by **docstox12** Thu Dec 17, 2020 7:00 pm

Yes, CP, Great to hear from SNOWMAN and Taffy again! We can thank this nice snowstorm for bringing back people we have not heard from in a long time.Suddenly, it's 2014!!!!
Glad we made that 12 inches CP, dodged a bust bullet there for a while.

by **hyde345** Thu Dec 17, 2020 7:14 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:It don't think I posted my final total but it was 12.2 inches.

Doc received 13 inches and Damian I believe was 14 inches so I appear to the be the low man on the totem pole (is that an expression that's even allowed anymore?) in Orange County this round. I'll get you both next time.

BTW I know we have a lot of HV posters here but for the rest of you that don't post, come out of the shadows.

Speaking of coming out of the shadows the best thing to come out of this storm is the reemergence of SNOWMAN and Taffy. Welcome back both of you. Long time members of the board and of course old OTI Alumni.

CP I measured 16. I never dry slotted. Radar kept filling in as it came north. It basically snowed from 8pm to 9am, most of it heavy. I love snow as it's falling but damn it sucks to shovel it. My snow blower is shot and thank God the neighbor came over with his and helped me.

12/16-12/17 Godzilla: Final Snow Map & Obsevations - Page 31 Img_1410

12/16-12/17 Godzilla: Final Snow Map & Obsevations - Page 31 Img_1412

12/16-12/17 Godzilla: Final Snow Map & Obsevations - Page 31 Img_1411

by **Math23x7** Thu Dec 17, 2020 7:19 pm

7.6" in Bellerose.

by **HectorO** Thu Dec 17, 2020 7:38 pm

Had a lot going on today. Hard for me to get a super accurate measurement but I'm going to say it was around 10 inches. I went out last night to snowblow a little so the morning's wouldn't be so bad. Not bad at all considering I was reaching for that white towel 2 weeks ago lol.

by **jimv45** Thu Dec 17, 2020 7:38 pm

Hyde good neighbor! I think I short changed my total I said 15 got more then that, I have an old fashion ruler that goes up to 12 that's sad but after cleaning up it was a lot!! I saw a report on the Albany site that someone reported 28 didn't get that where I am but hey my parents in Hopewell jct got about 13 and 3 miles to the east they reported 25 so who knows where these people if true are getting the totals from!

by **docstox12** Thu Dec 17, 2020 8:03 pm

Hyde 345:

Very very nice! Got a Buddy in Hopewell Junction reporting 18.Good for you too jimv45.This was a classic "there will be more snow N & W" storm like I remember as a kid down in Bergen County NJ.Looks like we will be enjoying a White Christmas this year.

by **jimv45** Thu Dec 17, 2020 8:17 pm

Yes Doc it was a great way to start, hope is there for a possible Christmas snow

by **hyde345** Thu Dec 17, 2020 9:06 pm

jimv45 wrote:Hyde good neighbor! I think I short changed my total I said 15 got more then that, I have an old fashion ruler that goes up to 12 that's sad but after cleaning up it was a lot!! I saw a report on the Albany site that someone reported 28 didn't get that where I am but hey my parents in Hopewell jct got about 13 and 3 miles to the east they reported 25 so who knows where these people if true are getting the totals from!

Jim, yeah you probably had a few more inches, great little storm. Some of the totals from Binghamton to Albany are insane not to mention 5-6 inch per hour snowfall rates. Geez.

by **hyde345** Thu Dec 17, 2020 9:16 pm

docstox12 wrote:Hyde 345:

Very very nice! Got a Buddy in Hopewell Junction reporting 18.Good for you too jimv45.This was a classic "there will be more snow N & W" storm like I remember as a kid down in Bergen County NJ.Looks like we will be enjoying a White Christmas this year.

Thanks Doc. 2 weeks ago I thought the chances of a white Christmas were slim so it's definitely nice that we have a snowpack a week before and have the cold to keep it there. I already have 3/4 of what I got all of last year and hoping for a lot more.

by **rb924119** Thu Dec 17, 2020 10:14 pm

algae888 wrote:Rb you also did great with the upper-level features however my interpretation of your forecast was a low-impact event for the New York City metro area on South and east since you didn't put out a snow map so I don't know how well you would have verified if you had made one. Appreciate your analysis as always

Thanks, Al! Yeah, that’s why I said to Frank earlier that it’s a lot easier to verify a synoptic evolution than a snowfall forecast with actual numbers. In hindsight, I really wish that I could have say down and made at least a preliminary map, but I had equipment to tend to at home lol so you’re not alone in wondering how well I would have done with respect to actual snowfall haha that said, I did manage to go through and pull some of my posts detailing some of my thoughts about the snowfall (not necessarily in chronological order haha) so it might be a little easier to try to assess:

12/16-12/17 Godzilla: Final Snow Map & Obsevations - Page 31 Da39e810

12/16-12/17 Godzilla: Final Snow Map & Obsevations - Page 31 315c1d10

12/16-12/17 Godzilla: Final Snow Map & Obsevations - Page 31 39d95210

12/16-12/17 Godzilla: Final Snow Map & Obsevations - Page 31 9fe25e10

by **rb924119** Thu Dec 17, 2020 10:21 pm

In general, I think I fared pretty well, considering I only briefly mentioned numbers. You weren’t wrong in interpreting that I was kind of downplaying the impact, but that was within the context of what my “fight” actually was with this event. I was looking at the bigger, broader picture, and trying to figure out what the overall evolution was going to be and where the biggest impacts would be. So, even though the general 5-8” I mentioned in the region south of I-80 and east of the Delaware River is not a bad storm, relative to the ideas that we were initially being presented with, it was fairly minor. But this is why I really wish that I could have made a map, to see just how well (or poorly) my ideas would have actually played out.

by **rb924119** Thu Dec 17, 2020 10:36 pm

sroc4 wrote:Hey folks. Sorry for the lack of updates last night into this am. Last night I sort of intentionally went radio silent because when we get to now cast sometimes I like to just sit back and let it happen. Esp if there is bad news It drives me crazy to hear about it over and over. I was optimistic that IMBY would reach double digits but watching the warm nose inch its way closer last night it became apparent that it wasnt going to happen. Instead I sat back with the wife and kids and drank wine and enjoyed the moment. Much more relaxing that way. It of course didn't help that my wife gave me a little grief when I got home from work last night and jumped right on the comp to check in here. And I quote "Seriously? You've been watching the weather non stop for a week. Cant you just enjoy it with me?"
Fair enough honey.

This morning I was scrambling to clear the driveway and get to my office to open up.

Id say this pretty much played out how I expected; with no real surprises. I mentioned yesterday that there were going to be aspects of both mine and Rays original discussion on the 11th that were going to verify, and other aspects that will not. The original discussion detailed a great big picture set up for wide spread snowfall which verified quite nicely. The idea that the set up was a poor one and that the majority of our area would be flooded with warm air clearly wasn't the case. That said Ray was pretty much spot on and never wavering with the idea of a warm nose poking into the coast, and that the axis of heaviest totals would past I80/84 which looks to be the case. Bravo Ray. You really are second to none on this board, and I thank you for your input as I still love to learn. The warm nose and because the LP did tuck itself in tight to the coast for the majority of the precip. ket totals along the coastal plain down relatively speaking. That said It appears that pretty much the vast majority of the coverage area with the exception of the Southern and and far eastern portions of LI and the southern half of NJ saw wide spread 6+ amounts with Godzilla amounts wide spread just off the coast. I haven't seen an official NWS map with totals on it yet though to verify the details.

Simply based on what Ive been reading on here it seems my original map was fairly accurate for LI. For that I am pleased. Obv the verification was on the lower end of the ranges it would appear. Im ok with that though. Out by me we did have a window of sleet and rain between about 3am-6:30ish am, but then got another inch or so this morning when it changed back.

Anyway IMBY Im happy to report a final tally of 7.25". For mid December along the coast with water temps still in the low to mid 50's you better believe I am happy with that total.

Cheers everyone and on to the next one!!!

I was wondering why we hadn’t seen more of you, but I’m glad you did what you did. Time is precious, and I agree that hearing all of the same negative news only adds insult to injury.......trust me; Frank’s labels of “crap” and “poo” right over me on the dual-pol screenshots was torturous ahahaha jk Frank, it was the truth, which hurts sometimes lmao anyway, I think a lot of my response to Algae is applicable here as well, regarding the downplaying of impact and what few posts I had actually regarding snow for reference. I’m very pleased with how this evolved on the whole, and would consider all of our forecasts much more successful than most, though again, it would have been nice to be able to put hard numbers down and see. Combined, I think we could have been pretty darn deadly, if I might say. Create our own human HREF lol Regardless, it was fun tracking and engaging in meaningful discussions, real-time battle testing ideas as we went, and I can’t wait to do it again!

by **rb924119** Thu Dec 17, 2020 10:43 pm

Ooh, also Frank, 14” on the nose at my parents’ in the Poconos, only about 6” down by Stroudsburg and Allentown (mom goes that way to work).

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Fri Dec 18, 2020 8:34 am

One example of how intense the snow band from this storm and how lucky (depending on perspective) certain towns were to get parked under it for several hours was Binghamton NY.

Binghamton NY received 40 inches of snow from the storm, 50 miles due south Scranton Pennsylvania received only 11 inches and 50 miles due north Syracuse received only 5.8 inches. That is a sharp cutoff in both directions and had nothing to do with lake effect.

Albany NY received 22.9 inches form the storm which would put the I88 corridor of NY (Binghamton to Albany) as the primary large scale jackpot area of the storm.

by **docstox12** Fri Dec 18, 2020 8:47 am

That is amazing CP, how those bands can change one area's snow totals from a given storm.There were a few models a day or two before the storm, showing that general area to be the jackpot.
That March 2018 snowstorm where we got 27 inches had us under a 3 or 4 inch an hour band for a while.Last time I saw intensity like that was the February 1983 storm in Mahwah NJ where it snowed 3 inches per hour from 6 PM to 12 midnight without any lulls.

by **WeatherBob** Fri Dec 18, 2020 1:19 pm

Doc, I remember the 1983 storm like it was yesterday. I was working to unload the grocery truck in the Grand Union in Clifton. 18 in total in Clifton, NNJ. I did a paper and slide show on that storm for my final presentation in college for my Meteorology degree. That was some storm , started at like 4 pm and lasted to midnight.

by **docstox12** Fri Dec 18, 2020 1:32 pm

WeatherBob wrote:Doc, I remember the 1983 storm like it was yesterday. I was working to unload the grocery truck in the Grand Union in Clifton. 18 in total in Clifton, NNJ. I did a paper and slide show on that storm for my final presentation in college for my Meteorology degree. That was some storm , started at like 4 pm and lasted to midnight.

Bob, you were not very far from me that day, I had my Dental Office in Ramsey.
I remember light snow starting around 1 that day.Left the office around 5 for my home in Mahwah, then called Kinchley's to order a pizza.When I was on the way to pick it up, the snow was light to moderate, but when I walked out the door of Kinchley's at 5 30, it was like all hell broke loose.Could barely see the road 10 feet ahead of me.I went outside my house a few hours later and could not see it from 35 feet away,LOL.You could actually see the snow accumulating.Solid 3 inch an hour rates for 6 straight hours.Wound up with 21 or 22 inches all told.

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