January 2021 Observations and Discussion

Could not wait to get this thread going! Good riddance 2020 is done! Temps down to 27*, looking forward to another rain event for me tomorrow (NOT!)

I am with you Janet Thank God 2020 is over and I hope 2021 brings good health peace and happiness to everyone and most of all let’s hope and pray to God this Covid goes away So we can move on with our normal lives again happy new year everyone

NAO trending stronger = slows down LP and allows more cold to intrude as the HP gets slowed as well and is stronger. From Mike Sullivan on Twitter

Looks like some incoming slop up here around dinner

2021. Best to everyone

January 3rd-4th:

BLUE: a couple to a few inches possible south to north
Yellow: White rain possible to maybe coating non paved
Green: cold rain

rb924119 wrote:

sroc4 wrote:January 3rd-4th:

BLUE: a couple to a few inches possible south to north
Yellow: White rain possible to maybe coating non paved
Green: cold rain

You might have to retire from map-making Scott; Jman’s daughter is making a run for your position just kidding, buddy hahaha seems to be in line with Frank’s thoughts, as well as some recent guidance,though lower with the actual totals compared to Frank’s initial thoughts and some shorter range guidance (GEM suite). Will be interesting to see how this plays given the ideas already discussed

Ahahaha, i was thinking same b4 i read your post rb. Yes scott my daughter will need to take over if she takes her time her coloring is great, looks like this if shes just being impatient. totally kidding no reason put out a great map for a nothing system. Honestly I think rain will be much further north into NYC and even into my area, yeah you say white rain but I dunno, we will see. I got a update on my daughters friend if banter, and its somewhat good news.

Based on what I see NOW I don't see 6"+ with this one. 2-4" NEPA, NW NJ, to the I84 corridor. I think a sloppy inch maybe NW of the 95 straddling the I78 corridor. The ULL just goes too far north for my liking here with a poor antecedent air mass. A possible stall of the low pressure dumping prodigious snows has been shown for CNE/NNE, but guidance is really split on that.

I'm under a winter advisory from 7pm until 10am. Mixed rain and snow with snow accumulation of 2-3". Ice 1/10".

32 degrees, wind at 3.

jmanley32 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

sroc4 wrote:January 3rd-4th:

BLUE: a couple to a few inches possible south to north
Yellow: White rain possible to maybe coating non paved
Green: cold rain

You might have to retire from map-making Scott; Jman’s daughter is making a run for your position just kidding, buddy hahaha seems to be in line with Frank’s thoughts, as well as some recent guidance,though lower with the actual totals compared to Frank’s initial thoughts and some shorter range guidance (GEM suite). Will be interesting to see how this plays given the ideas already discussed

Ahahaha, i was thinking same b4 i read your post rb.  Yes scott my daughter will need to take over if she takes her time her coloring is great, looks like this if shes just being impatient.  totally kidding no reason put out a great map for a nothing system.  Honestly I think rain will be much further north into NYC and even into my area, yeah you say white rain but I dunno, we will see.  I got a update on my daughters friend if banter, and its somewhat good news.

Both of you....ggrrr. Lol. I made it on my iPhone; not my pc, by taking a snap shot and using my finger. Lol. It’s the best I could do on mobile.

I posted my final call map in Banter for both of you Ray and Jon

I’m saying “Yes! to the map”

Sleeting here now.  Winter Weather Advisory until 10 pm for sleet and freezing rain.  I am positive that advisory was not there earlier today.

Light freezing rain. Deck is getting a bit of glaze.

32/30

Rgem and 3K nam look nice for the city north and west for Sunday Sunday night

I am getting sleet/rain mix at 36.3*. Interesting where the rain/frozen line is. Can I hang on and not get the rain?

Sleeting here with some rain mixed in as I was out.
Sunday night looks interesting. Need this wave to get out before we figure out Sunday.

Light snow sleet mix here on the north shore

algae888 wrote:Rgem and 3K nam look nice for the city north and west for Sunday Sunday night

I think they're going to come in line with the Euro and GFS soon. I think this storm will tuck more at the 850/700 mb layers just because the ULL is so far northwest. I was hoping that wouldn't happen, but I see no evidence of that ULL not getting to Lake Erie area. What may happen though is the storm starts to intensify and crawl as it hits the Gulf of Maine which benefits more of CNE/NNE. I know the RGEM and NAM are showing 2' amounts in CT and MA as the storm stalls as it heads Cape Code, but I'm really skeptical due to the track and lack of cold air.

Here is the RGEM run

Sunday into Monday Folks
EURO 850 Vort in deep purple - good location off the SNJ Shore


700 MB Vort looks good as well off the Jersey Shore



Interesting to see how this will play out

Is Al Gore in charge of this map??

amugs wrote:Is Al Gore in charge of this map??

haha well, 50% probability of above average temps also means a 50% of not!