February 1st-2nd Godzilla, Part III: 1st Call Snow Map

NWS Binghamton has me in a region of 8-12", specially marked as the "Zone of Greatest Uncertainty" because 20 miles NW is 6-8" and 20 miles SE is 12-18" and they decided they'd handle it by issuing a WWA with expected totals of 4-7".

It's a blip ask on I wouldn't worry much if anyone sees sleet #1 it'll be brief #2 don't go out in it unless you wanna look like Freddy Kruger...

weatherwatchermom wrote:

Irish wrote:

weatherwatchermom wrote:

amugs wrote:Can u say money shot??
HR 42 EURO

Good morning ...what the heck is that gold blob??? The only one ...right over my house???lol

Sleet?

lol I know I wanted mugs response...it's crazy the whole state snowing and that one tiny spot sees sleet... just curious to his opinion

Gotcha, could be a golden shower.

docstox12 wrote:

GreyBeard wrote:Yeah we all look good for this one, mostly. Bright red sky at sunrise this morning hopeful that is a harbinger of things to come.

"Red sky at morning, sailor take warning"! Amazing how these old timey words of wisdom always prove out!

As a boater and fisherman I’ve taught my daughters this saying. Now in the summer evening’s my kids see pink skies and run around yelling we can go on the boat tomorrow!!!!

jmanley32 wrote:

amugs wrote:Matty  Ice in da house - was waiting for you kid!!
This is some sick sick banding -2016 style 3-4/5" puking snow rates!

wow im directly under the darkest part of that band, dare i say we are close enough in time that being in the jackpot is a good thing .  4-5 inches of snow / hr i dont think ive ever seen that, that would most likely produce thundersnow no?

jman when was the last time we seen this much snow And I hope we do get thunder snow

frank 638 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

amugs wrote:Matty  Ice in da house - was waiting for you kid!!
This is some sick sick banding -2016 style 3-4/5" puking snow rates!

wow im directly under the darkest part of that band, dare i say we are close enough in time that being in the jackpot is a good thing .  4-5 inches of snow / hr i dont think ive ever seen that, that would most likely produce thundersnow no?

jman when was the last time we seen this much snow And I hope we do get thunder snow

look at my signature on the higher amounts nearly 10 yrs ago we had a 21 inch storm. This could be close or if lucky beat it. We will see but that snow map from nws is no joke. They err on caution and that is not cautious.

Has anyone heard from skins he's been quiet

Error

weatherwatchermom wrote:Has anyone heard from skins he's been quiet

I'm here i haven't posted much lately. Im currently away and going to be driving back into this on Tuesday ugh. Family trip

Upton discussion isn't playing. They said 2 ft totals are not out of the question and blizzard warnings could go up for NYC area coastal CT and LI. Winds could gust 50 to 60mph especially on LI. I'm awake right? This isn't a dream?

Yet Upton still has a good chunk of Suffolk county under a winter storm watch. Foolish IMO

What's the ETA on this thing? Radar looks like it is ready to hit south jersey already.

jmanley32 wrote:Upton discussion isn't playing. They said 2 ft totals are not out of the question and blizzard warnings could go up for NYC area coastal CT and LI. Winds could gust 50 to 60mph especially on LI. I'm awake right? This isn't a dream?

Upton leaning to the NAM and gfs.

Middlesex Cty on north should probably be under a blizzard warning. I would think Mt Holly and Upton will coordinate and make some upgrades early this afternoon. If it tucks though like Euro/CMC showed there is going to be mixing at some point on the I95 and points SE. Much damage will probably have been done though and won't change things too much.

If this was December's air mass (not too cold) there would be a whole lot more mixing. That's a big difference between then and now IMO.

11 degrees, slate grey Stratus snow clouds, a little lighter N and W of me, but filling in.Winds calm now, the proverbial "calm before the storm". Sky telling me this starts sooner up here than the 10PM NWS has.Just a seat of the pants observation.

WAA more often than not comes in sooner than modeled. I expect 1 or 2 hour earlier push of that precip.

skinsfan1177 wrote:

weatherwatchermom wrote:Has anyone heard from skins he's been quiet

I'm here i haven't posted much lately. Im currently away and going to be driving back into this on Tuesday ugh. Family trip

eek...be safe

heehaw453 wrote:WAA more often than not comes in sooner than modeled.  I expect 1 or 2 hour earlier push of that precip.

Roger that!

Uh oh. NAM is about do a NAM thing. 12 hours into the run, already noticeable changes versus 06z.

Bernie Rayno said all of Long Island and NYC will get rain and the dreaded dry tongue but most of the storm will be done at that point.

Am I reading the 500mb anomaly map right when I think I see the closed low a bit NE of where it was last run?

Precip should be more expansive to the west this run for sure.

21.5/14. Great overrunning surface.

TheAresian wrote:Am I reading the 500mb anomaly map right when I think I see the closed low a bit NE of where it was last run?

Yes. More consolidated too.