Front-End Thump of Snow WED 1/25

It feels like Wednesday's storm trended a bit colder (or maybe just faster which helps with precip type) and it has the potential to bring accumulating snow to a widespread area. Here are a couple of frames from the 06z NAM - 1pm and 4pm.





The same time stamps but looking at surface temps. Notice where the 32-degree line is.





After 4pm, temperatures begin to rise for pretty much everyone. At some point, everyone will changeover from snow to rain. The coast will obviously changeover to rain quicker than N&W. The EURO and GFS are warmer than the NAM. Given how this winter has gone, I would probably go with the warmer than colder scenario. We're lacking a HP to our north. So not much of a mechanism to keep our cold air in place.

NYC probably looking at a C to 1" (C-0.5" likely)

NNJ, especially central/west looking at C-2"

Well N&W of NYC could receive a few inches. Not thinking more than 3".

Sounds right Frank.NWS has me for 3 to 5 but the way the storms have been going, will be happy to get the 3.Anyway, something to track.

Frank Im not sure Id say no HP.  In fact quite the opposite.  We do have an HP on approach from the system, but its more of a question of how quickly will; it retreat.  In the modeling at least the trend seems to be the colder solns.  The later in the season the harder it is to scour out the cold.  On top of that todays system is ushering in "colder" air so antecedent air mass will be in place.  Cant really argue with anything else in the write up regarding who sees what, and timing of changeover beginning at the coast and eventually most of the area changes over eventually.  

The H means business.  You are getting a finger signature for WAA which is indicative of intense rates of snow.  Whoever gets into those good rates is going to get 5" of snow out of this.  That H is straight out of the Northwest Territories and I don't think it's sliding anywhere too quickly. It's also in an ideal spot for this.

There’s an HP…I don’t particularly like what it does once the storm begins it’s transfer to the coast. But yes I misspoke, there’s definitely an HP and it’s helping with keeping cold in place at the onset.

My concern for this event is where the best lift sets up. We aren't going to know that until almost game time, but probably tomorrow models start to narrow the goal posts a bit.  For now just have to wait.

This started out as a hope and a prayer but as my untrained eye peruses tonight’s maps this looks to be more of the same horse crap we’ve had since beginning of December.

A front end inch or two, if it even amounts to that and for most it probably won’t, just isn’t going to cut it.

I should add this isn’t a knock at Heehaw who has been Absolutely relentless tracking every frustrating event we have had this fruitless season. It’s just a frustrating knock at what use to be Winter.

Morris County has a Winter Weather Advisory for Wednesday. NWS says 1-2 inches of snow for me, then changing to rain. High temp predicted to be 37°F on Wednesday, then staying there overnight.

Wonder if CPK will get any measurable snow out of this.What is it, Jan 28th the record for no measurable snow?
NWS sticking with 3-5 total for me out of this.

docstox12 wrote:Wonder if CPK will get any measurable snow out of this.What is it, Jan 28th the record for no measurable snow?
NWS sticking with 3-5 total for me out of this.

I am making a gentlemans bet that we shatter that record into feb.

And it just keeps trending warmer with each run.

I’m done with this one, 2-3 inches of snow followed by more cold rain does not a winter make.

Winter weather advisory in Orange County and western Passaic for 2-5 inches. Not if the trends continue.

Agree with CP. This WAA snow is not looking as impressive. The shot was always the front end due to the storm trajectory.  Looks like 1-3" well NW of I95 (probably at least 40 miles) away and C-1 around the I95 and Trace coastal plain.  The CPK may be broken and this winter would be the one to do it.

docstox12 wrote:Wonder if CPK will get any measurable snow out of this.What is it, Jan 28th the record for no measurable snow?
NWS sticking with 3-5 total for me out of this.

Need to pass January 29th. I'd put the probability at 60% this one doesn't produce measurable snowfall.

heehaw453 wrote:

docstox12 wrote:Wonder if CPK will get any measurable snow out of this.What is it, Jan 28th the record for no measurable snow?
NWS sticking with 3-5 total for me out of this.

Need to pass January 29th. I'd put the probability at 60% this one doesn't produce measurable snowfall.

Roger that heehaw.Yesterday, you were spot on up here.

Even if it does snow a couple of tenths of an inch in Central Park tomorrow I have my doubts whether the current team that is in charge of measuring snow in the city actually records it. If last year was any indication they are back to their old ways and either not measuring snowfall amounts less than an inch in the park, or just botching up the measurements entirely with larger amounts and always on the low side.

The temps aren't the issue with this threat.  It's the lift is too far off to the west.  Your 700mb vorticity is telling me this is going to be too far NW for a lot of folks.  Pretty much above that line is where you want to be to have a chance for 5"+.  Earlier models were putting that further down towards NJ.  So if the NAM is right 1-3" NW NJ, LHV and have to go to route 81 and Catskills/Poconos for 5"+ opportunity. I'll say the further NW in Orange County you go the closer to 4-5" you will be be.  Could be SE areas see 2" and NW areas see 5" kind of thing in Orange County. This is what the models are starting to lock into so I don't see big changes.  For those on the coastal plain and I95 chalk this up to yet another disappoint in a long laundry list of them this season. It's remarkable how Mother Nature just doesn't want snow to fall in that area.

am hoping our luck will change and we can get at least 1 good solid storm, all it takes is one big storm to turn this winter from a let down to a winner in terms of snowfall

phil155 wrote: am hoping our luck will change and we can get at least 1 good solid storm, all it takes is one big storm to turn this winter from a let down to a winner in terms of snowfall

Nope, won't make any difference to me at this point. One storm does not make a winter.

The GFS still refuses to correct at 12Z little over 24 hours out.  

mikeypizano wrote:

phil155 wrote: am hoping our luck will change and we can get at least 1 good solid storm, all it takes is one big storm to turn this winter from a let down to a winner in terms of snowfall

Nope, won't make any difference to me at this point. One storm does not make a winter.

I was thinking in terms of total snowfall and not the overall winter

phil155 wrote:

mikeypizano wrote:

phil155 wrote: am hoping our luck will change and we can get at least 1 good solid storm, all it takes is one big storm to turn this winter from a let down to a winner in terms of snowfall

Nope, won't make any difference to me at this point. One storm does not make a winter.

I was thinking in terms of total snowfall and not the overall winter

Winter '94-'95 ran like this one but we had a 12 inch snowstorm that February.That was pretty much it that year.

docstox12 wrote:

phil155 wrote:

mikeypizano wrote:

phil155 wrote: am hoping our luck will change and we can get at least 1 good solid storm, all it takes is one big storm to turn this winter from a let down to a winner in terms of snowfall

Nope, won't make any difference to me at this point. One storm does not make a winter.

I was thinking in terms of total snowfall and not the overall winter

Winter '94-'95 ran like this one but we had a 12 inch snowstorm that February.That was pretty much it that year.

And of course the year after that was a historic winter, maybe this is a precursor to a repeat of that historic winter of 95-96 next year. We are over due for it imho and one can dream

Honestly I think nyc will continue with the snow drought .if we do see snow it’s not going to stick .what a big Disappointment

Do you think we will beat the 5 flakes that we had here in Hazlet tomorrow?

weatherwatchermom wrote:Do you think we will beat the 5 flakes that we had here in Hazlet tomorrow?  

Lol you will get your 5 flakes but they may come in a short window