Re: 2023 Atlantic Tropics season

by **jmanley32** Thu Sep 07, 2023 10:34 am

Wow RI occuring full eye in a few hrs. I bet 11am topping 100mph. At 80 now. I know models will flip flop but my thinking is a close call but miss in between bermuda and US. Thpugh i see on yoitube znd other places furthest west people are saying is nortjern NE and canada. Will still give one heck of a wave show on beaches. But everything is still on table. Once a major cat 4 even 5 things could change drastically.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=13L&product=ir

by **jmanley32** Thu Sep 07, 2023 11:04 am

Wow now progged to be 160mph cat 5 on 9th.

by **Dunnzoo** Thu Sep 07, 2023 2:12 pm

Watching the satellite loop looks like a little wobble west this afternoon after heading nw earlier.

by **dkodgis** Thu Sep 07, 2023 2:25 pm

That loop invites speculation.

by **phil155** Thu Sep 07, 2023 3:09 pm

Major hurricane already and looking rather impressive already, Lee will be a monster the question now is where does it go. It seems like the trend has been to slow the storm down a bit in the past day and I for one am not sure how that impacts it's interaction with any ridging or trophs

by **sroc4** Thu Sep 07, 2023 3:13 pm

Euro is a teaser

by **sroc4** Thu Sep 07, 2023 3:19 pm

First recon headed to Lee now

by **sroc4** Thu Sep 07, 2023 3:22 pm

The Hi-res meso sat loop is mesmerizing

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=goes16-meso2&product=vis

by **jmanley32** Thu Sep 07, 2023 3:28 pm

sroc4 wrote:The Hi-res meso sat loop is mesmerizing

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=goes16-meso2&product=vis

wow....

by **dkodgis** Thu Sep 07, 2023 3:29 pm

Big snd bigger

A doozy. Where’s Doc?

by **jmanley32** Thu Sep 07, 2023 3:29 pm

sroc4 wrote:Euro is a teaser

why dont have time to look.

by **sroc4** Thu Sep 07, 2023 3:32 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
sroc4 wrote:Euro is a teaser
why dont have time to look.

Its darn close

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/exatl/z500_barbs/1694088000/1694822400-kVW3PoLFsVQ.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/exatl/z500_barbs/1694088000/1694844000-6QIBN1LH4TI.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/exatl/z500_barbs/1694088000/1694865600-xod4yIC03oo.png

by **GreyBeard** Thu Sep 07, 2023 3:40 pm

I like spaghetti but wouldn't want this on my plate. A NYC bullseye. What are the odds?

1 - 2023 Atlantic Tropics season - Page 8 Screen30

by **dkodgis** Thu Sep 07, 2023 3:48 pm

According to the models, not a big chance. When I came here in 99, I don’t remember what year exactly but 99 or 00 it got ugly and killed my elec in my apt in Sep. i wound up using stream water for a lot of things. I had to drive to my other house for my generator. It was a different world in SJ vs Stony Point

by **sroc4** Thu Sep 07, 2023 4:10 pm

sroc4 wrote:Will start tracking the GFS and Euro Ensemble clusters: 00z overnight:

https://images.weatherbell.com/tctracks/gfs-atcf/lee13l//1694088000/1694088000-oW7BwVSSx5U.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/tctracks/ecmwf-bufr/lee13l//1694088000/1694088000-gXAgkarYmag.png

by **weatherwatchermom** Thu Sep 07, 2023 4:25 pm

sroc4 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
sroc4 wrote:Euro is a teaser
why dont have time to look.

Its darn close

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/exatl/z500_barbs/1694088000/1694822400-kVW3PoLFsVQ.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/exatl/z500_barbs/1694088000/1694844000-6QIBN1LH4TI.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/exatl/z500_barbs/1694088000/1694865600-xod4yIC03oo.png

That better not come to fruition...come on. That is where my child is

by **dkodgis** Thu Sep 07, 2023 4:42 pm

Mom, I believe the best response, one that I used to yell out to my kids at 6:45 am and that I still yell out to my daughter at her bus stop some 200 geet from tje house is “THAT’s MY BABY!!” Yelling that out in the early morning used to make them say “Dad!” But I think they appreciated it.

by **weatherwatchermom** Thu Sep 07, 2023 4:44 pm

dkodgis wrote:Mom, I believe the best response, one that I used to yell out to my kids at 6:45 am and that I still yell out to my daughter at her bus stop some 200 geet from tje house is “THAT’s MY BABY!!” Yelling that out in the early morning used to make them say “Dad!” But I think they appreciated it.

Lol

by **sroc4** Thu Sep 07, 2023 5:04 pm

Already up to 130mphand 953mb

takenback

by **jmanley32** Thu Sep 07, 2023 5:11 pm

sroc4 wrote:Already up to 130mphand 953mb

good lord snd ya euro disconcerting. Kerps moving west so did the ensembles i see.

by **jmanley32** Thu Sep 07, 2023 5:23 pm

This def get concerning with how strong he is getting and that he has potential for east coast lsndfall. Yes not as a cat 5 but who heck knows he has already done more than expected by today.

by **rb924119** Thu Sep 07, 2023 7:59 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
sroc4 wrote:Already up to 130mphand 953mb

good lord snd ya euro disconcerting. Kerps moving west so did the ensembles i see.

This trend should continue, in my opinion, for the reasons previously discussed. And the changes in today’s guidance were not a good sign. Gonna rip a post from Bastardi, as I think it’s a good one.

by **Joe Snow** Thu Sep 07, 2023 8:07 pm

Confidence remains high in the track for Lee, with almost no change
made to the NHC track forecast. Lee should continue moving
west-northwestward along the southern edge of the subtropical ridge
for the next 5 days. The ridge is forecast to gradually weaken by
early next week, causing Lee to slow down. This track should keep
the core of Lee and its damaging winds north of the Leeward Islands.
There is uncertainty in any northward turn of Lee beginning early
next week, but it is too soon to speculate about specific potential
impacts a week or more out.

by **rb924119** Thu Sep 07, 2023 8:11 pm

by **rb924119** Thu Sep 07, 2023 8:17 pm

UMMMM

RECON’S LATEST MISSION RECORDED MSLP AS 930mb AND WIND AT 150 KTS……

1 - 2023 Atlantic Tropics season - Page 8 Img_1810

by **Joe Snow** Thu Sep 07, 2023 8:20 pm

Flight Con data rolling in Close too a CAT 5 Wow..........

by **jmanley32** Thu Sep 07, 2023 8:38 pm

mog 930mb 145 kts!! wow

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