2023 Atlantic Tropics season

...And a N/NNW track toward Long Island or e. New England becomes more of a risk, as shown by the 12z GEFS. We also need to consider the possibility that #Lee's interaction with the strong jet streak to its N helps it to maintain strength instead of weakening over cooler waters pic.twitter.com/UixUd62I9I

— Yaakov Cantor (@yconsor) September 10, 2023

Dunnzoo wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:Well I posted the monster to hit on 25th in banter so as not to clog up about Lee but hey, heres a closeup. Imagine if we had two direct impact hurricanes in a week of each other...



This will likely be out N storm.

Please keep this in banter, let's concentrate on one storm at a time, this thread is going to get busier as we get closer. Thanks!

3 people posted about it above and two remarks on it why am I targeted? I did post it in banter and then saw it here above.

...One needs to look just as much at the jet stream level (250 mb) as the mid-levels of the atmosphere (500 mb). There has been a notable trend in GEFS toward a better defined, more negative tilt trough late this week from the e. Great Lakes to NC. pic.twitter.com/vqw14khhns

— Yaakov Cantor (@yconsor) September 10, 2023

250 Jet Streak strength and location are key to its impacts on the area and NE as currently forecasted.

Euro Ensembles:  The take away....notice there are multiple members showing a bend back to the west.  This would indicate missing the trough.  If this trend conts for another 24hrs of runs It could be officially on.

amugs wrote:

...One needs to look just as much at the jet stream level (250 mb) as the mid-levels of the atmosphere (500 mb). There has been a notable trend in GEFS toward a better defined, more negative tilt trough late this week from the e. Great Lakes to NC. pic.twitter.com/vqw14khhns

— Yaakov Cantor (@yconsor) September 10, 2023

250 Jet Streak strength and location are key to its impacts on the area and NE as currently forecasted.

Right rear quadrant of the JS = mechanism for enhanced vertical motion. Cooler temps of the waters will def be mitigated by this factor for sure.

sroc4 wrote:Euro Ensembles:  The take away....notice there are multiple members showing a bend back to the west.  This would indicate missing the trough.  If this trend conts for another 24hrs of runs It could be officially on.  

https://images.weatherbell.com/tctracks/ecmwf-bufr/lee13l//1694347200/1694347200-PVFlgcsBao8.png

GEFS Same story, same takeaway

Back to Major status 120mph, when I refreshed I noted the cone shifted ever so slightly to the west on NHC, also see a bit of shift in the wind field percentage.

Dunnzoo wrote:Lee is also slowing down, was moving at 10 mph last night, now only at 8 mph. Averaging a 1* W movement and miniscule movement N in the last 24 hours or so. At this rate the trough may be further east and the storm will have a path along the coast.

I sent you PM, please read. How are you able to find out and track his directional movement, is there a place that shows all coordinates of his trek? I have a bad feeling our area is gonna and up being the hot zone maybe still to the west of him but the wind field will be so expansive it won't matter. And gotta remember we have had insane rains and full trees, not go take but 50+ mph winds to do a lot tree damage. Western side also always gets the heaviest rains so the flooding would be serious. Of course all speculation.

sroc4 wrote:

sroc4 wrote:Euro Ensembles:  The take away....notice there are multiple members showing a bend back to the west.  This would indicate missing the trough.  If this trend conts for another 24hrs of runs It could be officially on.  

https://images.weatherbell.com/tctracks/ecmwf-bufr/lee13l//1694347200/1694347200-PVFlgcsBao8.png

GEFS Same story, same takeaway

https://images.weatherbell.com/tctracks/gfs-atcf/lee13l//1694347200/1694347200-SnaDOarwhWg.png

That one lone trek pulling a exact sandy track is slightly unnerving. I wish I had the models from Sandy to see how far east they had her before having her curve into NJ, not saying this is the same as you already explained but the fact that there is even one showing that keeps from there east in play IMO. And that one that stalls just south of Queens and then rides sout of LI, god that would be terrible.

oh my 18z gfs...interesting the highest winds are the the N and west of it, I don't think we have seen the end of the shifts west, we still will prolly see runs to the east too. This is early sat AM, as we spoke zoo, I guess I would not be going towards that lol

Ths coming from a sharp curve west and last second instead of going OTS, then rides coast of maine out.

Shore communities especially need to pay attention to this because if the westward shift is not done it could be bad because this is likely to be a large storm with effects being felt quite far from the center. If this shifts a bit further west and there is another storm a week or so later the effects would be devastating

Yes more so LI and CT shores at this time.
Lots of time to go still.

phil155 wrote:Shore communities especially need to pay attention to this because if the westward shift is not done it could be bad because this is likely to be a large storm with effects being felt quite far from the center. If this shifts a bit further west and there is another storm a week or so later the effects would be devastating

18z is about to show a even stronger cane hit after Lee. Yes I know track one storm at a time but we may have to start tracking that one before Lee is done as they are only about 6-7 days apart. Which yes would be awful. Phil I think this stil lshifts west giving the tri-state a hit maybe not the landfall but as you stated the windfield is likely to be massive.

IMO if these models keep showing a westward shift over the next 2-3 days I think if not can watches TS watches for the area. Eastern Areas maybe cane, but sorry I am getting way ahead.

GEFS big lean west as well.
Still 2-3 days away for consensus!!

amugs wrote:GEFS big lean west as well.
Still 2-3 days away for consensus!!

Is it a trend or do we see a shift east tonight at 0Z? If it’s the former, a few more ticks west and we could be in trouble.

Lee appears to be slowly but steadily regaining strength, eye has re-emerged and pressure has gone from 958 to 952 on latest pass. Might see a tick up in winds at 11pm. Curious of cone shifts at all, at 12z it shifted very so slightly to the NNW.

Dunnzoo wrote:Slowly he turned, step by step..... hopefully not! It's going to be rough for all coastal areas wherever he goes.

What do you mean? He is turning now? Wouldnt that ensure a OTS solution, this would be well before progged.

Dunnzoo wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

Dunnzoo wrote:Slowly he turned, step by step..... hopefully not! It's going to be rough for all coastal areas wherever he goes.

What do you mean? He is turning now? Wouldnt that ensure a OTS solution, this would be well before progged.

No no no! Just in the models!

Gotcha, and he is now 950mb down from 958 on the last recon, finding winds 105-110kts, so he is def ramping up, is that shear dying off?

nutleyblizzard wrote:

amugs wrote:GEFS big lean west as well.
Still 2-3 days away for consensus!!

Is it a trend or do we see a shift east tonight at 0Z? If it’s the former, a few more ticks west and we could be in trouble.

This is still a pretty big spread but it is a big shift west since about 5 days ago or so, could be the start of a trend, could we see more shifts east yeah I think we could, but just like snowstorms we could then see it go back west even more. But if rb is standing his ground and even scott who has not called a all clear then this is a possible trend, give it 2-3 more days before we get ready, coasties might as well do minor preparations just in case, I mean looks like we may be tracking another bigun for 25th time frame but I dunno it's only the gfs right now.

jmanley32 wrote:

nutleyblizzard wrote:

amugs wrote:GEFS big lean west as well.
Still 2-3 days away for consensus!!

Is it a trend or do we see a shift east tonight at 0Z? If it’s the former, a few more ticks west and we could be in trouble.

This is still a pretty big spread but it is a big shift west since about 5 days ago or so, could be the start of a trend, could we see more shifts east yeah I think we could, but just like snowstorms we could then see it go back west even more. But if rb is standing his ground and even scott who has not called a all clear then this is a possible trend, give it 2-3 more days before we get ready, coasties might as well do minor preparations just in case, I mean looks like we may be tracking another bigun for 25th time frame but I dunno it's only the gfs right now.

Yup, still standing my ground, especially since models appear to be coming toward my ideas now.

The slower Lee moves the bigger the New england threat. GEFS has 2 clusters by Saturday night. The slower one is clustered for the SE New England hit, The faster ones to the northeast pic.twitter.com/ZsF6yIbliG

— The American Storm (@BigJoeBastardi) September 11, 2023

If those 6 L to the W and SW of the green cluster happen, then NJ shore through NYC qre in play. Watch it jump east at OZ and 6Z and back west further 12Z!! Wouldn't surprise me.
Looking fwd to Rb and SROC detailed write ups these next 48-72 hours.

This would be well alarming if it did happen from WxBell SPIRE #1 Analog.

11pm update cone shifted slightly west, barely notable but he is now moving NW, no longer WNW so it looks like he is already going to start to being that turn and not stay south.