Long Range Thread 27.0
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Re: Long Range Thread 27.0
sroc4 wrote:rb924119 wrote:The reversal of the Stratospheric winds is irrelevant, Scot; it’s a byproduct of the warming. The warming is what effects the actual changes in the atmosphere, not the wind reversal.And with the warming where it is, you’re going to have a “shadow” vortex develop equatorward of it, relative to averages
That’s my exact point Ray. Esp when there is no reversal the position of the SPV is critical. Up through now it’s position has been poorly oriented for most of NA.
Ignore the reversal, it’s irrelevant to the sensible weather. The only thing it satisfies is tue textbook definition. The evolution of the warming is what matters. The warming in the Stratosphere that you currently see on maps has been ongoing since the first week of December. Those fluxes are going to start impacting the Troposphere next week. So to say that the state of the Stra today is effectikgnthe weather today isn’t fair. You’d have to look at November to see how the Strat evolved in order to make the argument you’re making. That’s my point.
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Re: Long Range Thread 27.0
rb924119 wrote:sroc4 wrote:rb924119 wrote:The reversal of the Stratospheric winds is irrelevant, Scot; it’s a byproduct of the warming. The warming is what effects the actual changes in the atmosphere, not the wind reversal.And with the warming where it is, you’re going to have a “shadow” vortex develop equatorward of it, relative to averages
That’s my exact point Ray. Esp when there is no reversal the position of the SPV is critical. Up through now it’s position has been poorly oriented for most of NA.
Ignore the reversal, it’s irrelevant to the sensible weather. The only thing it satisfies is tue textbook definition. The evolution of the warming is what matters. The warming in the Stratosphere that you currently see on maps has been ongoing since the first week of December. Those fluxes are going to start impacting the Troposphere next week. So to say that the state of the Stra today is effecting the weather today isn’t fair. You’d have to look at November to see how the Strat evolved in order to make the argument you’re making. That’s my point.
I couldnt disagree more. I think at times, major changes to the strat can take time to see the result of the surface yes. But I also think while it may not be directly influencing the trop they are always linked. Under certain conditions more so, and others less so. Despite a term we want to call a tropopause, there is no definite large scale piece of cellophane separating the two. So under relatively stable conditions, or minor changes to the strat you can see direct correlation between where the lowest heights of the SPV live and the TPV live. This can be demonstrated over and over. A change at the strat isnt locked to a 3-6 week lag time when they have been coupled as they have been between 10mb down through 100, and consequently the troposphere. But as the forecast shows the 10mb nd 50mb SPV is set to de couple as a result of a second even stronger wave of warming begining at the top10m and eventually translating down.
I think the warming throughout Dec was such that it weakened the SPV some but actyed more to push it, rather than to strongly weaken it. There wasnt enough weakening and warming of the vortex itself, just the surrounding ridging acted as an expanding balloon that pushed the vortex over to the wrong side of the hemi. And because there is some link and has been since the fall the 500mb pattern responded accordingly.
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Re: Long Range Thread 27.0
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Re: Long Range Thread 27.0
sroc4 wrote:rb924119 wrote:sroc4 wrote:rb924119 wrote:The reversal of the Stratospheric winds is irrelevant, Scot; it’s a byproduct of the warming. The warming is what effects the actual changes in the atmosphere, not the wind reversal.And with the warming where it is, you’re going to have a “shadow” vortex develop equatorward of it, relative to averages
That’s my exact point Ray. Esp when there is no reversal the position of the SPV is critical. Up through now it’s position has been poorly oriented for most of NA.
Ignore the reversal, it’s irrelevant to the sensible weather. The only thing it satisfies is tue textbook definition. The evolution of the warming is what matters. The warming in the Stratosphere that you currently see on maps has been ongoing since the first week of December. Those fluxes are going to start impacting the Troposphere next week. So to say that the state of the Stra today is effecting the weather today isn’t fair. You’d have to look at November to see how the Strat evolved in order to make the argument you’re making. That’s my point.
I couldnt disagree more. I think at times, major changes to the strat can take time to see the result of the surface yes. But I also think while it may not be directly influencing the trop they are always linked. Under certain conditions more so, and others less so. Despite a term we want to call a tropopause, there is no definite large scale piece of cellophane separating the two. So under relatively stable conditions, or minor changes to the strat you can see direct correlation between where the lowest heights of the SPV live and the TPV live. This can be demonstrated over and over. A change at the strat isnt locked to a 3-6 week lag time when they have been coupled as they have been between 10mb down through 100, and consequently the troposphere. But as the forecast shows the 10mb nd 50mb SPV is set to de couple as a result of a second even stronger wave of warming begining at the top10m and eventually translating down.
I think the warming throughout Dec was such that it weakened the SPV some but actyed more to push it, rather than to strongly weaken it. There wasnt enough weakening and warming of the vortex itself, just the surrounding ridging acted as an expanding balloon that pushed the vortex over to the wrong side of the hemi. And because there is some link and has been since the fall the 500mb pattern responded accordingly.
I’m going to respond to this more later on, maybe even in the morning, but I just gotta say something in light of something that happened to me today. It probably belongs in banter, so feel free to move it, but I think it’s highly relevant to our ongoing debate lol
Today I had a coworker who I’m fairly friendly with, though would still consider him an acquaintance, post on Facebook about how this December has gone weather wise, and how it’s undeniable proof of climate change. If you don’t acknowledge that, then you’re ignorant, and unintelligent. This post doesn’t touch on the topic specifically, and I think most of you know which side of that discussion I fall on, but that is not the point here. After some ponderance, I decided to respond with countering information that I intended to further support later, since I had to go to work. This person also went to school for meteorology, so I was actually looking forward to a legitimate debate in a public forum……
He responded shortly after, and to open his response, he immediately stated that he thinks that my opinion of the topic was severely biased by my political leanings, and went on to discuss a few very broad-brushed points about the topic. When I told him that my politics had absolutely nothing to do with it, and again that I would be responding with further material, he deleted the post entirely shortly thereafter. I’m still dumbfounded by this, and the level of immaturity demonstrated, but I’m posting because of a broader point that I’d like to make to you, Scott, but also to all readers of the forum:
We are clearly in disagreement with our current discussion, and sure, maybe the tone could be (mis)interpreted as a bit heated, but I couldn’t be more thankful to be having this debate, ANY debate, in such a civilized manner. We may end up agreeing to disagree in the end, but the fact that we can do that and carry on to the next topic without any sense of malice or anger is just fantastic. It only makes us better by having to dig in and really get our hands dirty with the science and data, and if one (or both) of us turn out to be wrong, then it’s just another learning opportunity. It’s so great to be able to have a knock down, drag out debate and then still part ways as friends, and I just wanted to highlight how appreciative I am of that. I feel like it’s a quickly dying opportunity no matter where we look anymore, and this seems to be the only place of solace that I have left. So, before going any further, a sincere thank you Scott, and every other member of this forum for supporting and maintaining the environment we have, and the culture of open debate and free thinking, because it’s an increasingly rare find.
Anyway, I wanted to say that and get it off my chest because I felt that it’s fitting to the current situation haha no need to hijack the thread any further, so I’ll revert later with my follow-up and actual response haha
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Re: Long Range Thread 27.0
rb924119 wrote:sroc4 wrote:rb924119 wrote:sroc4 wrote:rb924119 wrote:The reversal of the Stratospheric winds is irrelevant, Scot; it’s a byproduct of the warming. The warming is what effects the actual changes in the atmosphere, not the wind reversal.And with the warming where it is, you’re going to have a “shadow” vortex develop equatorward of it, relative to averages
That’s my exact point Ray. Esp when there is no reversal the position of the SPV is critical. Up through now it’s position has been poorly oriented for most of NA.
Ignore the reversal, it’s irrelevant to the sensible weather. The only thing it satisfies is tue textbook definition. The evolution of the warming is what matters. The warming in the Stratosphere that you currently see on maps has been ongoing since the first week of December. Those fluxes are going to start impacting the Troposphere next week. So to say that the state of the Stra today is effecting the weather today isn’t fair. You’d have to look at November to see how the Strat evolved in order to make the argument you’re making. That’s my point.
I couldnt disagree more. I think at times, major changes to the strat can take time to see the result of the surface yes. But I also think while it may not be directly influencing the trop they are always linked. Under certain conditions more so, and others less so. Despite a term we want to call a tropopause, there is no definite large scale piece of cellophane separating the two. So under relatively stable conditions, or minor changes to the strat you can see direct correlation between where the lowest heights of the SPV live and the TPV live. This can be demonstrated over and over. A change at the strat isnt locked to a 3-6 week lag time when they have been coupled as they have been between 10mb down through 100, and consequently the troposphere. But as the forecast shows the 10mb nd 50mb SPV is set to de couple as a result of a second even stronger wave of warming begining at the top10m and eventually translating down.
I think the warming throughout Dec was such that it weakened the SPV some but actyed more to push it, rather than to strongly weaken it. There wasnt enough weakening and warming of the vortex itself, just the surrounding ridging acted as an expanding balloon that pushed the vortex over to the wrong side of the hemi. And because there is some link and has been since the fall the 500mb pattern responded accordingly.
I’m going to respond to this more later on, maybe even in the morning, but I just gotta say something in light of something that happened to me today. It probably belongs in banter, so feel free to move it, but I think it’s highly relevant to our ongoing debate lol
Today I had a coworker who I’m fairly friendly with, though would still consider him an acquaintance, post on Facebook about how this December has gone weather wise, and how it’s undeniable proof of climate change. If you don’t acknowledge that, then you’re ignorant, and unintelligent. This post doesn’t touch on the topic specifically, and I think most of you know which side of that discussion I fall on, but that is not the point here. After some ponderance, I decided to respond with countering information that I intended to further support later, since I had to go to work. This person also went to school for meteorology, so I was actually looking forward to a legitimate debate in a public forum……
He responded shortly after, and to open his response, he immediately stated that he thinks that my opinion of the topic was severely biased by my political leanings, and went on to discuss a few very broad-brushed points about the topic. When I told him that my politics had absolutely nothing to do with it, and again that I would be responding with further material, he deleted the post entirely shortly thereafter. I’m still dumbfounded by this, and the level of immaturity demonstrated, but I’m posting because of a broader point that I’d like to make to you, Scott, but also to all readers of the forum:
We are clearly in disagreement with our current discussion, and sure, maybe the tone could be (mis)interpreted as a bit heated, but I couldn’t be more thankful to be having this debate, ANY debate, in such a civilized manner. We may end up agreeing to disagree in the end, but the fact that we can do that and carry on to the next topic without any sense of malice or anger is just fantastic. It only makes us better by having to dig in and really get our hands dirty with the science and data, and if one (or both) of us turn out to be wrong, then it’s just another learning opportunity. It’s so great to be able to have a knock down, drag out debate and then still part ways as friends, and I just wanted to highlight how appreciative I am of that. I feel like it’s a quickly dying opportunity no matter where we look anymore, and this seems to be the only place of solace that I have left. So, before going any further, a sincere thank you Scott, and every other member of this forum for supporting and maintaining the environment we have, and the culture of open debate and free thinking, because it’s an increasingly rare find.
Anyway, I wanted to say that and get it off my chest because I felt that it’s fitting to the current situation haha no need to hijack the thread any further, so I’ll revert later with my follow-up and actual response haha
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Re: Long Range Thread 27.0
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Re: Long Range Thread 27.0
rb924119 wrote:sroc4 wrote:rb924119 wrote:sroc4 wrote:rb924119 wrote:The reversal of the Stratospheric winds is irrelevant, Scot; it’s a byproduct of the warming. The warming is what effects the actual changes in the atmosphere, not the wind reversal.And with the warming where it is, you’re going to have a “shadow” vortex develop equatorward of it, relative to averages
That’s my exact point Ray. Esp when there is no reversal the position of the SPV is critical. Up through now it’s position has been poorly oriented for most of NA.
Ignore the reversal, it’s irrelevant to the sensible weather. The only thing it satisfies is tue textbook definition. The evolution of the warming is what matters. The warming in the Stratosphere that you currently see on maps has been ongoing since the first week of December. Those fluxes are going to start impacting the Troposphere next week. So to say that the state of the Stra today is effecting the weather today isn’t fair. You’d have to look at November to see how the Strat evolved in order to make the argument you’re making. That’s my point.
I couldnt disagree more. I think at times, major changes to the strat can take time to see the result of the surface yes. But I also think while it may not be directly influencing the trop they are always linked. Under certain conditions more so, and others less so. Despite a term we want to call a tropopause, there is no definite large scale piece of cellophane separating the two. So under relatively stable conditions, or minor changes to the strat you can see direct correlation between where the lowest heights of the SPV live and the TPV live. This can be demonstrated over and over. A change at the strat isnt locked to a 3-6 week lag time when they have been coupled as they have been between 10mb down through 100, and consequently the troposphere. But as the forecast shows the 10mb nd 50mb SPV is set to de couple as a result of a second even stronger wave of warming begining at the top10m and eventually translating down.
I think the warming throughout Dec was such that it weakened the SPV some but actyed more to push it, rather than to strongly weaken it. There wasnt enough weakening and warming of the vortex itself, just the surrounding ridging acted as an expanding balloon that pushed the vortex over to the wrong side of the hemi. And because there is some link and has been since the fall the 500mb pattern responded accordingly.
I’m going to respond to this more later on, maybe even in the morning, but I just gotta say something in light of something that happened to me today. It probably belongs in banter, so feel free to move it, but I think it’s highly relevant to our ongoing debate lol
Today I had a coworker who I’m fairly friendly with, though would still consider him an acquaintance, post on Facebook about how this December has gone weather wise, and how it’s undeniable proof of climate change. If you don’t acknowledge that, then you’re ignorant, and unintelligent. This post doesn’t touch on the topic specifically, and I think most of you know which side of that discussion I fall on, but that is not the point here. After some ponderance, I decided to respond with countering information that I intended to further support later, since I had to go to work. This person also went to school for meteorology, so I was actually looking forward to a legitimate debate in a public forum……
He responded shortly after, and to open his response, he immediately stated that he thinks that my opinion of the topic was severely biased by my political leanings, and went on to discuss a few very broad-brushed points about the topic. When I told him that my politics had absolutely nothing to do with it, and again that I would be responding with further material, he deleted the post entirely shortly thereafter. I’m still dumbfounded by this, and the level of immaturity demonstrated, but I’m posting because of a broader point that I’d like to make to you, Scott, but also to all readers of the forum:
We are clearly in disagreement with our current discussion, and sure, maybe the tone could be (mis)interpreted as a bit heated, but I couldn’t be more thankful to be having this debate, ANY debate, in such a civilized manner. We may end up agreeing to disagree in the end, but the fact that we can do that and carry on to the next topic without any sense of malice or anger is just fantastic. It only makes us better by having to dig in and really get our hands dirty with the science and data, and if one (or both) of us turn out to be wrong, then it’s just another learning opportunity. It’s so great to be able to have a knock down, drag out debate and then still part ways as friends, and I just wanted to highlight how appreciative I am of that. I feel like it’s a quickly dying opportunity no matter where we look anymore, and this seems to be the only place of solace that I have left. So, before going any further, a sincere thank you Scott, and every other member of this forum for supporting and maintaining the environment we have, and the culture of open debate and free thinking, because it’s an increasingly rare find.
Anyway, I wanted to say that and get it off my chest because I felt that it’s fitting to the current situation haha no need to hijack the thread any further, so I’ll revert later with my follow-up and actual response haha
Quick question, do you believe that climate change is happening?
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Re: Long Range Thread 27.0
dkodgis wrote:In general it is difficult to discuss anything with anyone these days. Civil discourse, the agreement to disagree are replaced with the need to be tight at all costs, facts be damned. I’m not forensic by nature. I don't like to argue. My wife and I think differences of opinion are unavoidable. However I have found a mismatch between conversation and colloquy. So many are just not thoughtful and know not in depth what they discuss and disturbingly are confident in a position not based on expert content. It is all about illustrating their thinking and that is more important than facts plus further interpretation. My gosh the world needs opinion AND facts and we all do not think with the same mind. Thus the world turns. These days are challenging when things ger perceived as personalized. All listening and thinking stops and people are so petty these days. My thought: go with God, child. That statement itself will not be seen as appropriate. It will get me in trouble.
To me this has always been and still is a great place to learn and gain insight and I really appreciate that. Why people have to bring their political perspective (regardless of the side) into everything is really beyond me. Political discussions today are really not possible for most people as they tune out any opposing ideas and just dismiss them straight away.
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Re: Long Range Thread 27.0
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Re: Long Range Thread 27.0
tomsriversnowstorm wrote:Rb it is so sad but the global warming left side does not want to even hear an opposing opinion. They fail to acknowledge that the earth is millions of years old. It goes through patterns of warming and cooling. We could be just in one of those warming natural patterns.rb924119 wrote:sroc4 wrote:rb924119 wrote:sroc4 wrote:rb924119 wrote:The reversal of the Stratospheric winds is irrelevant, Scot; it’s a byproduct of the warming. The warming is what effects the actual changes in the atmosphere, not the wind reversal.And with the warming where it is, you’re going to have a “shadow” vortex develop equatorward of it, relative to averages
That’s my exact point Ray. Esp when there is no reversal the position of the SPV is critical. Up through now it’s position has been poorly oriented for most of NA.
Ignore the reversal, it’s irrelevant to the sensible weather. The only thing it satisfies is tue textbook definition. The evolution of the warming is what matters. The warming in the Stratosphere that you currently see on maps has been ongoing since the first week of December. Those fluxes are going to start impacting the Troposphere next week. So to say that the state of the Stra today is effecting the weather today isn’t fair. You’d have to look at November to see how the Strat evolved in order to make the argument you’re making. That’s my point.
I couldnt disagree more. I think at times, major changes to the strat can take time to see the result of the surface yes. But I also think while it may not be directly influencing the trop they are always linked. Under certain conditions more so, and others less so. Despite a term we want to call a tropopause, there is no definite large scale piece of cellophane separating the two. So under relatively stable conditions, or minor changes to the strat you can see direct correlation between where the lowest heights of the SPV live and the TPV live. This can be demonstrated over and over. A change at the strat isnt locked to a 3-6 week lag time when they have been coupled as they have been between 10mb down through 100, and consequently the troposphere. But as the forecast shows the 10mb nd 50mb SPV is set to de couple as a result of a second even stronger wave of warming begining at the top10m and eventually translating down.
I think the warming throughout Dec was such that it weakened the SPV some but actyed more to push it, rather than to strongly weaken it. There wasnt enough weakening and warming of the vortex itself, just the surrounding ridging acted as an expanding balloon that pushed the vortex over to the wrong side of the hemi. And because there is some link and has been since the fall the 500mb pattern responded accordingly.
I’m going to respond to this more later on, maybe even in the morning, but I just gotta say something in light of something that happened to me today. It probably belongs in banter, so feel free to move it, but I think it’s highly relevant to our ongoing debate lol
Today I had a coworker who I’m fairly friendly with, though would still consider him an acquaintance, post on Facebook about how this December has gone weather wise, and how it’s undeniable proof of climate change. If you don’t acknowledge that, then you’re ignorant, and unintelligent. This post doesn’t touch on the topic specifically, and I think most of you know which side of that discussion I fall on, but that is not the point here. After some ponderance, I decided to respond with countering information that I intended to further support later, since I had to go to work. This person also went to school for meteorology, so I was actually looking forward to a legitimate debate in a public forum……
He responded shortly after, and to open his response, he immediately stated that he thinks that my opinion of the topic was severely biased by my political leanings, and went on to discuss a few very broad-brushed points about the topic. When I told him that my politics had absolutely nothing to do with it, and again that I would be responding with further material, he deleted the post entirely shortly thereafter. I’m still dumbfounded by this, and the level of immaturity demonstrated, but I’m posting because of a broader point that I’d like to make to you, Scott, but also to all readers of the forum:
We are clearly in disagreement with our current discussion, and sure, maybe the tone could be (mis)interpreted as a bit heated, but I couldn’t be more thankful to be having this debate, ANY debate, in such a civilized manner. We may end up agreeing to disagree in the end, but the fact that we can do that and carry on to the next topic without any sense of malice or anger is just fantastic. It only makes us better by having to dig in and really get our hands dirty with the science and data, and if one (or both) of us turn out to be wrong, then it’s just another learning opportunity. It’s so great to be able to have a knock down, drag out debate and then still part ways as friends, and I just wanted to highlight how appreciative I am of that. I feel like it’s a quickly dying opportunity no matter where we look anymore, and this seems to be the only place of solace that I have left. So, before going any further, a sincere thank you Scott, and every other member of this forum for supporting and maintaining the environment we have, and the culture of open debate and free thinking, because it’s an increasingly rare find.
Anyway, I wanted to say that and get it off my chest because I felt that it’s fitting to the current situation haha no need to hijack the thread any further, so I’ll revert later with my follow-up and actual response haha
True, but the impact that humans have had over only the last 200 years is really what's causing drastic change. We are entering into the first geological era (Anthropocene) of change caused by human behavior. We may go through patterns of warming or cooling but what can't be argued is that for the first time in the history of things living on Earth are we seeing such drastic impacts because of decisions we made.
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Re: Long Range Thread 27.0
dkodgis wrote:Irish, are you asking me?
I quoted and was asking rb but feel free to share. This is all meant for another forum.
Irish- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: Long Range Thread 27.0
Irish wrote:tomsriversnowstorm wrote:Rb it is so sad but the global warming left side does not want to even hear an opposing opinion. They fail to acknowledge that the earth is millions of years old. It goes through patterns of warming and cooling. We could be just in one of those warming natural patterns.rb924119 wrote:sroc4 wrote:rb924119 wrote:sroc4 wrote:rb924119 wrote:The reversal of the Stratospheric winds is irrelevant, Scot; it’s a byproduct of the warming. The warming is what effects the actual changes in the atmosphere, not the wind reversal.And with the warming where it is, you’re going to have a “shadow” vortex develop equatorward of it, relative to averages
That’s my exact point Ray. Esp when there is no reversal the position of the SPV is critical. Up through now it’s position has been poorly oriented for most of NA.
Ignore the reversal, it’s irrelevant to the sensible weather. The only thing it satisfies is tue textbook definition. The evolution of the warming is what matters. The warming in the Stratosphere that you currently see on maps has been ongoing since the first week of December. Those fluxes are going to start impacting the Troposphere next week. So to say that the state of the Stra today is effecting the weather today isn’t fair. You’d have to look at November to see how the Strat evolved in order to make the argument you’re making. That’s my point.
I couldnt disagree more. I think at times, major changes to the strat can take time to see the result of the surface yes. But I also think while it may not be directly influencing the trop they are always linked. Under certain conditions more so, and others less so. Despite a term we want to call a tropopause, there is no definite large scale piece of cellophane separating the two. So under relatively stable conditions, or minor changes to the strat you can see direct correlation between where the lowest heights of the SPV live and the TPV live. This can be demonstrated over and over. A change at the strat isnt locked to a 3-6 week lag time when they have been coupled as they have been between 10mb down through 100, and consequently the troposphere. But as the forecast shows the 10mb nd 50mb SPV is set to de couple as a result of a second even stronger wave of warming begining at the top10m and eventually translating down.
I think the warming throughout Dec was such that it weakened the SPV some but actyed more to push it, rather than to strongly weaken it. There wasnt enough weakening and warming of the vortex itself, just the surrounding ridging acted as an expanding balloon that pushed the vortex over to the wrong side of the hemi. And because there is some link and has been since the fall the 500mb pattern responded accordingly.
I’m going to respond to this more later on, maybe even in the morning, but I just gotta say something in light of something that happened to me today. It probably belongs in banter, so feel free to move it, but I think it’s highly relevant to our ongoing debate lol
Today I had a coworker who I’m fairly friendly with, though would still consider him an acquaintance, post on Facebook about how this December has gone weather wise, and how it’s undeniable proof of climate change. If you don’t acknowledge that, then you’re ignorant, and unintelligent. This post doesn’t touch on the topic specifically, and I think most of you know which side of that discussion I fall on, but that is not the point here. After some ponderance, I decided to respond with countering information that I intended to further support later, since I had to go to work. This person also went to school for meteorology, so I was actually looking forward to a legitimate debate in a public forum……
He responded shortly after, and to open his response, he immediately stated that he thinks that my opinion of the topic was severely biased by my political leanings, and went on to discuss a few very broad-brushed points about the topic. When I told him that my politics had absolutely nothing to do with it, and again that I would be responding with further material, he deleted the post entirely shortly thereafter. I’m still dumbfounded by this, and the level of immaturity demonstrated, but I’m posting because of a broader point that I’d like to make to you, Scott, but also to all readers of the forum:
We are clearly in disagreement with our current discussion, and sure, maybe the tone could be (mis)interpreted as a bit heated, but I couldn’t be more thankful to be having this debate, ANY debate, in such a civilized manner. We may end up agreeing to disagree in the end, but the fact that we can do that and carry on to the next topic without any sense of malice or anger is just fantastic. It only makes us better by having to dig in and really get our hands dirty with the science and data, and if one (or both) of us turn out to be wrong, then it’s just another learning opportunity. It’s so great to be able to have a knock down, drag out debate and then still part ways as friends, and I just wanted to highlight how appreciative I am of that. I feel like it’s a quickly dying opportunity no matter where we look anymore, and this seems to be the only place of solace that I have left. So, before going any further, a sincere thank you Scott, and every other member of this forum for supporting and maintaining the environment we have, and the culture of open debate and free thinking, because it’s an increasingly rare find.
Anyway, I wanted to say that and get it off my chest because I felt that it’s fitting to the current situation haha no need to hijack the thread any further, so I’ll revert later with my follow-up and actual response haha
True, but the impact that humans have had over only the last 200 years is really what's causing drastic change. We are entering into the first geological era (Anthropocene) of change caused by human behavior. We may go through patterns of warming or cooling but what can't be argued is that for the first time in the history of things living on Earth are we seeing such drastic impacts because of decisions we made.
Irish. There is plenty of data to the contrary. This is not to say humans don’t play their role. But in a nutshell without going into details because this is definitely not the thread to carry on this discussion, but he globe has been much warmer multiple times over the past 400k years with data to back such claims. Non of which had humans as a potential contributor. In the prior times when this occurs CO2 has gone up in an almost perfect linear fashion with the temps. But in modern times co2 is off the charts and yet the temperature of the globe has not gone up the same way it has in the past. In fact although we still fluctuate up and down a little each year, we have been in somewhat of a global warming pause over the past decade or so. Despite our little neck of the woods that we call the NE seemily warmer then years past. This tells me while co2 in the atmosphere def plays a role, it is not what warms the planet because if it was we should be 20* warmer on average. If you’re interested in some of this I’d be happy to post it in a different thread. But for now let’s let the LR thread cont as the LR thread.
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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
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Re: Long Range Thread 27.0
Irish wrote:Back to the long range summer forecasting... sorry for being a part of leading us astray.
Agreed, back to our regular program
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Re: Long Range Thread 27.0
I think it was March of 2017 when a very late-winter, much discussed pattern change finally happened and there was like 3-4 March snowstorms esp for the N/W crew. Coastal plain has had monster results on the pattern changes in Jan ‘18 and Jan ‘22. So, the precedent is there. I know it stinks to get skunked and it’s frustrating that every threat seems to fizzle before it even gets going. And I know some pattern changes just never do happen, but if it does happen, chances are it’ll be worth all trouble for some folk on this board. Keep hope alive for Jan ‘24!!
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SENJsnowman wrote:I’m just saying the pattern changes have a very recent history of delivering in these parts. I think it was 3 years ago that we had a dismal Dec ‘20/Jan ‘21 and then February went nuts after a much discussed pattern change.. And that was also directly after a horrible ‘19/‘20 winter for most of us. Matches this year to a T.
I think it was March of 2017 when a very late-winter, much discussed pattern change finally happened and there was like 3-4 March snowstorms esp for the N/W crew. Coastal plain has had monster results on the pattern changes in Jan ‘18 and Jan ‘22. So, the precedent is there. I know it stinks to get skunked and it’s frustrating that every threat seems to fizzle before it even gets going. And I know some pattern changes just never do happen, but if it does happen, chances are it’ll be worth all trouble for some folk on this board. Keep hope alive for Jan ‘24!!
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Are we writing off this winter already when mid to long term guidance has been so unreliable?billg315 wrote:I usually avoid getting too involved in the long-range thread, as it is not my forte but I will make a super-long-range forecast that I feel confident in: Despite a couple of crappy (for snow lovers) winters in a row, there will be another streak of cold and snowy winters in our future. I've been through this "it never snows anymore" hand-wringing before in my life. Several times. Dating back to the 1980s. And it has always been followed by colder, snowier winters. So, it may not be this winter, or next, but take heart, it will cycle around again.
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Re: Long Range Thread 27.0
Koroptim wrote:Are we writing off this winter already when mid to long term guidance has been so unreliable?billg315 wrote:I usually avoid getting too involved in the long-range thread, as it is not my forte but I will make a super-long-range forecast that I feel confident in: Despite a couple of crappy (for snow lovers) winters in a row, there will be another streak of cold and snowy winters in our future. I've been through this "it never snows anymore" hand-wringing before in my life. Several times. Dating back to the 1980s. And it has always been followed by colder, snowier winters. So, it may not be this winter, or next, but take heart, it will cycle around again.
Hell no!
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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
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Re: Long Range Thread 27.0
my man SRoc!sroc4 wrote:Koroptim wrote:Are we writing off this winter already when mid to long term guidance has been so unreliable?billg315 wrote:I usually avoid getting too involved in the long-range thread, as it is not my forte but I will make a super-long-range forecast that I feel confident in: Despite a couple of crappy (for snow lovers) winters in a row, there will be another streak of cold and snowy winters in our future. I've been through this "it never snows anymore" hand-wringing before in my life. Several times. Dating back to the 1980s. And it has always been followed by colder, snowier winters. So, it may not be this winter, or next, but take heart, it will cycle around again.
Hell no!
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Re: Long Range Thread 27.0
billg315 wrote:I usually avoid getting too involved in the long-range thread, as it is not my forte but I will make a super-long-range forecast that I feel confident in: Despite a couple of crappy (for snow lovers) winters in a row, there will be another streak of cold and snowy winters in our future. I've been through this "it never snows anymore" hand-wringing before in my life. Several times. Dating back to the 1980s. And it has always been followed by colder, snowier winters. So, it may not be this winter, or next, but take heart, it will cycle around again.
Ditto my brethren, the ebb n flow of nature's cycles.
Interesting write up:
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Michael J Baer
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It may seem like I'm grasping at straws when I say this, but after analyzing ECMWF weeklies and GFS extended strat, upper-air, and mslp guidance. I'm looking at the period around mid-January as being massive because I see several things occurring.
1. Pressure regime change in East Asia leading a -EAMT.
2. A strong high-pressure regime developing over Darwin coinciding with a strong area of negative pressure development around Tahiti, which will serve to tank the southern oscillation index. This will have two major impacts.
(1)It will kick the MJO into the favorable seasonal MJO phases needed for winter weather in the eastern US.
(2) It will move the 30 & and 90-day SOI averages back into SOI El Niño range.
3. The Aleutian low will form and dominate, allowing for the needed EPO and PNA ridge coupling to develop.
4. While all this is ongoing, we should see a cooling of the SST temps in the northern central Pacific.
Lastly, this all combined will serve to create more favorable conditions for initially a strong PV stretch leading to a major Polar low dislodgement into Hudson Bay. I will also add that 2009-10, which is one of the top analog years for this winter, had SSW events in both February and March of 2010.
In the end, I may find out that I was completely wrong, but I can't overlook what my analysis, albeit skeptical, is seeing.
12/30/2023
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Re: Long Range Thread 27.0
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WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
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Re: Long Range Thread 27.0
rb924119 wrote:Trust the process, folks, and get your sleep. As I’ve said before, the models are going to struggle seeing what I think should happen until it’s much closer in time. There are A LOT of factors working in our favor to give us a memorable winter, and their constructive interference is going to start being realized. The idea of transitioning after the 20th has evolved as expected, now as we enter the new year, it’s time for the hammer to drop.
From your mouth to Mother Nature’s ears!!
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