Re: Long Range Thread 27.0

[sroc4]

I mentioned an inverted trough the other day

Starting to think that will be the outcome here

But threat of a bigger storm remains. Won’t take much as Heehaw points out

Do inverted troughs mean more or less of a likelihood of a powerful storm?

If you're under the banding that occurs via an inverted trough you can do very well.  But they are very hard to predict exact locations so nowcasting is often needed.  And its much less wide spread for sure.

Ugh, that's rough. So, we'd much rather not have an inverted trough.

We could have both!

[Frank_Wx]

Every model has a minimum snow accumulation of 1” for Friday. The current max depending on the model is about 5”. If the trends continue at 500mb, these numbers will go way up.

[Frank_Wx]

After Fridays system, we will enter a mild stretch that is likely to last for 10 days (21st to 31st) +\- 2 days. It’s my strong belief that this will act as a reset and then by Feb 1st +/- 2 days we will be back to a colder than normal regime and tracking snowstorms.

[SENJsnowman]

Every model has a minimum snow accumulation of 1” for Friday. The current max depending on the model is about 5”. If the trends continue at 500mb, these numbers will go way up.

This optimism by our fearless leader Frank feels extra inspiring today!

We track!

[heehaw453]

The 12Z EPS was a nice step. Shows a clustering of rapidly deepening L slightly SE of BM.

[tomsriversnowstorm]

We need to be careful of how west this comes. The icon had rain for many.

[sroc4]

We need to be careful of how west this comes. The icon had rain for many.

Toms River. What site are you looking at? ICON looked pretty good to me.

[MattyICE]

We need to be careful of how west this comes. The icon had rain for many.

I would think with the TPV in SE Canada there’s a way bigger risk of suppressed/sheared out/late to phase OTS.

[tomsriversnowstorm]

A good portion of Jersey has green on your map. Sorry but I am rooting for it to stay east. I don’t want rain. I will take my few inches.

quote="sroc4"]

We need to be careful of how west this comes. The icon had rain for many.

Toms River.  What site are you looking at?  ICON looked pretty good to me.  



[/quote]

[Irish]

A good portion of Jersey has green on your map. Sorry but I am rooting for it to stay east. I don’t want rain. I will take my few inches.

quote="sroc4"]

We need to be careful of how west this comes. The icon had rain for many.

Toms River.  What site are you looking at?  ICON looked pretty good to me.  

[/quote]
On that map, it looks like only the smallest strip down the shore sees green. The rest of the state is all snow. Either way, it's too early to say.

[sroc4]

A good portion of Jersey has green on your map. Sorry but I am rooting for it to stay east. I don’t want rain. I will take my few inches.

quote="sroc4"]

We need to be careful of how west this comes. The icon had rain for many.

Toms River.  What site are you looking at?  ICON looked pretty good to me.  

[/quote]

Look closer.  with the exception of extreme SE coastal NJ in this one frame, its all snow.  Assuming your call name is indicative of where you live you would be right on the northern fringe of the R/S line in the first frame.   IF, and that's a big IF, the ICON has this right, and we are deepening a low, with this track, and the surrounding upper and mod level energy adn temp profiles, and an arctic HP to our north, 90% of NJ is snowing pretty much the entire time.  That said I can see how if it comes in too far NW your particular back yard could have rain to snow.   

[tomsriversnowstorm]

I get what you’re saying that is why I am rooting for it to stay east. This way the whole board gets a few inches and no one see any rain.

[heehaw453]

The 18Z NAM is moving things in the right direction for Friday...

[sroc4]

GEM holds for the most part.  Conts to insist on a well organized storm.  How close to the coast can it get?  CMC and RGEM did a great job with todays system.  

hey scott back from my banishment to banter lol. Does thishave a much higher potential thsn today?

Jon...Its GREAT to have you back!. LOL. All kidding aside yes I'd say Fridays potential has a higher ceiling as of now still than todays event. Doesnt mean we reach that ceiling; however. If it comes together like the Canadian series is depicting Godzilla plus is most certainly on the table. IMHO the way things are shaping up its the coastal plain that has the best chance. That said there is still alot of work to do to get there, and I am by no means claiming any one soln is going to happen just yet. Im still in the, just give the models until 12z tomorrow to marinate on this before I begin to mold my final thoughts. When the Euro initialized this was where the two key players where on the board. Our southern piece will make it onshore today into tonight.

[Frank_Wx]

Time to start a thread























Hehehe

[jmanley32]

Time to start a thread























Hehehe

NOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! LOL

[jmanley32]

GEM holds for the most part.  Conts to insist on a well organized storm.  How close to the coast can it get?  CMC and RGEM did a great job with todays system.  

hey scott back from my banishment to banter lol. Does thishave a much higher potential thsn today?

Jon...Its GREAT to have you back!.  LOL.  All kidding aside yes I'd say Fridays potential has a higher ceiling as of now still than todays event.  Doesnt mean we reach that ceiling; however.  If it comes together like the Canadian series is depicting Godzilla plus is most certainly on the table.  IMHO the way things are shaping up its the coastal plain that has the best chance.  That said there is still alot of work to do to get there, and I am by no means claiming any one soln is going to happen just yet.  Im still in the, just give the models until 12z tomorrow to marinate on this before I begin to mold my final thoughts.  When the Euro initialized this was where the two key players where on the board.  Our southern piece will make it onshore today into tonight.

Did you see my PM response? Yes I completely understand? Will the minimum be more than 1 inch? If so I will have to be happy with that because that's what I got today and I will say it was better than nothing. I hold no one, no one to any one solution as we know and saw by last nights SR models even when it comes to game time as you stated, the weather is gonna do what it is gonna do. Lets track! And I like the overall positive sounds so far.

[Irish]

Time to start a thread























Hehehe

Might as well. Something is brewing. The weather doesn't know that we started thread, it's gonna do what it's gonna do.

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Since too many posts were made, this topic has been divided automatically. You can find the rest of this topic here :
https://www.njstrongweatherforum.com/t1159-long-range-thread-27-0

[amugs]

Let's see if this comes to fruition - just in time from middle of February through mid March.

One of the most notable features appearing on consecutive ECMWF Weeklies runs is the presence of a retrograding Greenland block in tandem with ridging into the Arctic Ocean. These two features coexisting can lead to prolonged periods of cold, stormy weather in the US and Europe. pic.twitter.com/nztTllZhhg

— John Homenuk (@jhomenuk) February 2, 2024

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