Long Island Blizzard Of 2014 Details / Snow Map #2

The above is my final snow map for this very tough to forecast storm. Iv'e been harping about this storm for awhile now and have always said the models are struggling big time. Finally, they have come around to the big storm solution but there still exists some uncertainties. Where the low pressure tracks and at what time it deepens, or strengthens, will dictate how this storm plays out.




Orange = blizzard warning
Pink = winter storm warning
Dark blue = winter storm watch
Light blue = coastal flood watch (also under winter storm watches)

Please click on your county to see what the NWS has to say about your area

http://wx.hamweather.com/maps/severe/warnings/all/usnj.html

I am naming this storm after Long Island because they will probably see the worst of it in terms of wind and snowfall, hence the blizzard warnings already issued. This will probably not be a widespread Godzilla-type storm (12+ inches), but isolated areas will see 12 or more inches of snow (refer to my snow map above).

Timing:

Light snow will begin Thursday morning from overrunning precip from the northern stream energy. It could be on and off. The best areas that will see the most overrunning snow are north and west of NYC. This could occur between 9-11am.

Lighter snows will overspread the entire region later in the day, figure between 2-4pm.

Moderate snow will come in the overnight hours. I am expecting moderate snow, which could be heavy at times, to come in between 9-11pm and continue through the night and come to an end between 6-9am Friday morning. Then lighter snow could continue until 11am Friday.

Wind:



Winds will be between 20-25 mph sustained on the island and coastal NJ with gusts potentially reaching 40 mph. Since the snow is going to be fluffy, there will be a lot of blowing snow bringing down visibility. This was the main reason why blizzard warnings were issued.

Temperatures:



^ 1 am Friday



^ 7 am Friday



^ 1 am Friday

You can see how cold it is going to be Thursday night (or early Friday morning) when moderate snow is coming into the area. This is why we are looking at 15:1 ratios, and if the snow were heavier, maybe 20:1 in some places. Snow is going to accumulate very quickly and stick instantly.

Conclusion:

We have to watch this storm carefully. There is still some concern that models are not accurately depicting the strength of the southern stream energy:



All that stream of moisture coming out of Mexico into the southeast U.S. could really energize this storm. Where the surface low tracks is imperative to snow totals. Any closer to the coast, amounts will go higher. Also, if banding sets up over your area, you will see higher snowfall amounts as well. The best banding from the coastal storm should set up somewhere between the Jersey Shore and north and east from there (including northeast NJ). But like I said, if the low comes further west, banding potential could spread west. Basically this has already turned into a nowcasting situation and we will have to monitor the progression of the storm very closely. So stay tuned.

Stay safe!

-Francesco Paparatto

Love it Frank. Great Work as always.

That's basically what i called for earlier today.   I trimmed down totals.  We don't match up for once.  Lets see what happens.  Btw..I am rooting for you as you have now predicted more snow than I have.

I think these totals may be a little too high but who knows at this point.

CNJ, NNJ, NEPA 5-9"
NYC in 6-10"
Nassau, W Suffolk, NJ shore, HV (HV due to ratios) 7-12"
C and E Suffolk 8-14"

Good map,any more model watching at this point? Tmrw morning models or its over for model watching at that point?

Make a call Tom!!!! lol

Amazing analysis Frank. Thank you

this from mt. holly AS FAR AS VERIFICATION AND INITIALIZATION GOES, WE ARE SEEING
STRONGER 500MB WINDS IN BOTH CANADA AND OVER THE SERN CONUS THAN
THE MODELS ARE FORECASTING. THE 00Z NAM SOLUTION WAS TO DIG THE
500MB TROF FURTHER, BUT SHEAR THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVES MORE
AND TAKES THE INITIAL LOW FARTHER OFFSHORE. THE TROF STRUCTURE IS
LESS NEGATIVE TILT AS A RESULT AND ITS QPF A COUPLE OF TENTHS FROM
THE DAY RUN.

IN THE CONUS, THE ECMWF 12HR FCST WAS VERIFYING THE BEST WITH THE
500MB TROF, IN WESTERN CANADA, THE GFS WAS VERIFYING THE BEST AND
THE ERRORS WERE STILL AROUND 10M WITH THE RIDGE (TOO LOW). AT
850MB ANY ERRORS WERE AROUND 1C TOO WARM.

can the stronger 500mb winds have any affect on how models are playing out this storm. ie stronger low closer to coast or weaker storm further offshore?

Noreaster wrote:Make a call Tom!!!! lol

I pretty much agree with your forecast except I don't think there will be amounts over a foot, IDK why it's just a feeling of mine.

Temperature profiles for this storm are very similar to the 96 blizzard.  ratios in that storm were 20:1 in NYC higher  in HV almost 30:1 and LaGuardia airport had 24 inches of  snow from 96 blizzard and 1.1 inches qpf. Don't let anyone mistake this for comparing the two storms, its temperature only where I'm drawing the similarities.

Like the map, of course my parents in CT luck out over me, of course we know that could move werst or east at this pt. I am making a nowcast of this. See ya'll tomorrow need to get some sleep.

Any chance we see a change to blizzard warning around NYC or are these watches and warnings pretty much set?

I want to say that looking at things again I think winds will be higher on Long Island. With a High to the north and a bombing low to the south, gradients will be tight. 50+ mph gusts is certainly possible with sustained winds over 30 mph

Ill throw a prediction out. Here is my map.

Quietace wrote:Ill throw a prediction out. Here is my map.

This is where most maps are around the web, and I definitely agree with it. I'm just more bullish.

Apparently Chicago is at 6-7 inches of snow with only .30 inches of qpf fallen

Is that with the high ratios ace? 4 inches would sux.

jmanley32 wrote:Is that with the high ratios ace? 4 inches would sux.

Yes, the closer to the coast the better you will do i believe.

Well I am like 10 miles north of the city so thats pretty close.

Nice Ace.    The more predictions the merrier !

jmanley32 wrote:Well I am like 10 miles north of the city so thats pretty close.

I like 6 for the city.

jmanley32 wrote:Well I am like 10 miles north of the city so thats pretty close.

I have u in my 7-12" category but I think you are closer to the 7 than the 12.

Quietace wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:Well I am like 10 miles north of the city so thats pretty close.

I like 6 for the city.

6-8 seems perfect for nyc ..I have nyc in the 6-10 in category.

I'm def rooting for Frank's map tho!!  Anyway good luck to you all.  I'm gonna be up to post about the Euro.