Long Island Blizzard Of 2014 Details / Snow Map #2

Quietace wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:Well I am like 10 miles north of the city so thats pretty close.

I like 6 for the city.

6-8 seems perfect for nyc ..I have nyc in the 6-10 in category.

I'm def rooting for Frank's map tho!!  Anyway good luck to you all.  I'm gonna be up to post about the Euro.

Noreaster wrote:

Quietace wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:Well I am like 10 miles north of the city so thats pretty close.

I like 6 for the city.

6-8 seems perfect for nyc ..I have nyc in the 6-10 in category.

i'll take it no complaints lol

Noreaster wrote:

Quietace wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:Well I am like 10 miles north of the city so thats pretty close.

I like 6 for the city.

6-8 seems perfect for nyc ..I have nyc in the 6-10 in category.

Agree. Seems to go with QPF and a little lower ratios due to heat island, though not that much worse.

RJB8525 wrote:

Noreaster wrote:

Quietace wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:Well I am like 10 miles north of the city so thats pretty close.

I like 6 for the city.

6-8 seems perfect for nyc ..I have nyc in the 6-10 in category.

i'll take it no complaints lol

Its a good storm. Will add to totals nicely.

Similarities between the setup of this storm and the 96 blizzard are more than I thought. Again I'm not saying this is the 96 Blizzard but there are several striking similarities.

Mutiple lows like we're seeing was one of them along with the extreme arctic high from the north, similar to what will be in place tomorrow night. Similar to now the services didn't pick up on it till late in the game. I'd take half the blizzard of 96 and be a very happy man.

Lots of reading but If you get a chance check this out.

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/assessments/pdfs/bz-mrg.pdf

Already have northern and southern stream interaction

Great points CP

Frank, whats holly waiting for? Warnings should be out...

Frank what do your think about accumulations in the JFK area?

Frank_Wx wrote:Great points CP

Frank:

If you do have time to read the PDF file it downloads pages 7 and 8 give a good rundown. I say this because it's a 53 page document.

Great job as always Frank I can't say enough good things about the work you do.

Retiring for the night, lots of tracking to do tomorrow.

Quietace wrote:Frank, whats holly waiting for? Warnings should be out...

Not sure. These weather stations puzzle me sometimes. They're going to wait until the last hour...

shabsies wrote:Frank what do your think about accumulations in the JFK area?

My map above has JFK at least reaching 7 inches of snow. Could be as high as 1 foot

It seems like Mt Holly doesn't know whether to go with advisories or warnings ...it really is a low confidence forecast

Noreaster wrote:It seems like Mt Holly doesn't know whether to go with advisories or warnings ...it really is a low confidence forecast

Warning criteria is only 4 inches for me, 6 for northern Coverage area. Think its warning criteria.

Quietace wrote:

Noreaster wrote:It seems like Mt Holly doesn't know whether to go with advisories or warnings ...it really is a low confidence forecast

Warning criteria is only 4 inches for me, 6 for northern Coverage area. Think its warning criteria.

Yea I know and so do I.  I'm just saying they aren't confident enough and feel as if it's a low confidence forecast.   I know it's a tough forecast but I think 4" is a lock for their NJ county warned area.

The 00z GEFS came in wetter than OP.

Strong suspicion that this comes way west of the current guidance...just my opinion. Based on wv and infrared imagery it looks like there is much more of southerly component to the eastern side of the combining systems than westerly or southwesterly. Not to mention the presence of rapidly developing precipitation between the two systems that is well ahead of schedule.

980 mb and getting pretty near the benchmark. It's gonna be a very interesting day tomorrow.

00z GGEM total precip

rb924119 wrote:Strong suspicion that this comes way west of the current guidance...just my opinion. Based on wv and infrared imagery it looks like there is much more of southerly component to the eastern side of the combining systems than westerly or southwesterly. Not to mention the presence of rapidly developing precipitation between the two systems that is well ahead of schedule.

Strongly agree.

rb924119 wrote:Strong suspicion that this comes way west of the current guidance...just my opinion. Based on wv and infrared imagery it looks like there is much more of southerly component to the eastern side of the combining systems than westerly or southwesterly. Not to mention the presence of rapidly developing precipitation between the two systems that is well ahead of schedule.

I agree. This will not play out like most pros are portraying it. Tomorrow will hold a few more surprises IMO.

Wow, 980 MB. Wonder what euro will show...

here is my (revised) snow map that I put on another forum

I don't understand all these accumulation maps other than Frank's to be honest, with all due respect. The precip shield that the main storm will produce is a circle; closer to storm, in a bigger precip circle ring if u will. Why are these maps showing Dutchess county for example with higher amounts than Queens county, when in reality they are closer to the storm....?

crazy how close this is to being really huge...this is from the 12z Euro

http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/2014010112/nyc/ecmwf_tprecip_nyc_10.png