Re: Observations/ Final Discussion Thread 1/2 - 1/3, 2014 Snowstorm

by Noreaster Thu Jan 02, 2014 5:55 pm

amugs wrote:

.HRRR looks like it will end precip my 9/10am or so if you extrapolate it.

by Debz Thu Jan 02, 2014 5:57 pm

Sleeting in Pemberton Twp NJ

by **crippo84** Thu Jan 02, 2014 6:02 pm

First flakes starting to fall here in midtown Manhattan. Time to go search for snow bunnies.

by **docstox12** Thu Jan 02, 2014 6:04 pm

Noreaster wrote:
docstox12 wrote:Does that fit under the "It's too cold to snow" category?
Haha no bit sometimes when it is too cold aloft ratios ramp back down to 10:1 although I don't see that happening this time. It was more just food for thought.

This is really interesting that ratios do help up to a point, then ramp down.Never knew that.Thanks Noreaster, I learned something here and for an old dog like me,that's something!

by Noreaster Thu Jan 02, 2014 6:12 pm

No problem Stox. I also should have mentioned before that when I'm talking about cold and winds affecting ratios. Its wind in the mid and upper levels and same goes for temp. Surfaces temps do have something to do with ratios but its most temps above the ground in the "snow growth region". It they are too cold it works the same way as it they aren't cold enough. I saw a chart in line about it one time, I'll look for it later.

by **docstox12** Thu Jan 02, 2014 6:14 pm

Roger that,10-4.

by **Dunnzoo** Thu Jan 02, 2014 6:16 pm

flurries and 20*, wind picking up and it is cooooooollllllllddd!

by Noreaster Thu Jan 02, 2014 6:16 pm

I'm hearing from a met of another site that soundings over LI indicate banding and thundersnow potential.

by jbnyy224 Thu Jan 02, 2014 6:17 pm

Snowing in Bay Ridge Brooklyn starting to pick up now sticking to everything obviously!

by **bloc1357** Thu Jan 02, 2014 6:18 pm

Noreaster wrote:I'm hearing from a met of another site that soundings over LI indicate banding and thundersnow potential.

Cantore from TWC will be pissed if LI gets thundersnow and where he is in Boston doesn't.....LOL

by **Quietace** Thu Jan 02, 2014 6:19 pm

Officially snowing here and sticking to colder surfaces with only a few flakes. Going for 10-12 is my goal. Probably will see 6-12

by **Quietace** Thu Jan 02, 2014 6:21 pm

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/s19/pmsl/pmsl.gif?1388704883909

by **SoulSingMG** Thu Jan 02, 2014 6:21 pm

The snow is really struggling to push into the Tri-State....

by **Quietace** Thu Jan 02, 2014 6:23 pm

From EPAWA
"Image #1 is the snowfall map off of the 18z GFS of expected totals snow, not accounting for anything that already fell prior to 1pm today. On this image we placed adjusted amounts as we cross-referenced the upper air soundings to account for higher snow ratios. These amounts match our final call map (image #2 - which does not need to be adjusted for higher ratios - they are factored in), and there are no changes to it.... STANDS AS CALLED. The heaviest concentration of snow will fall in our 6-10"+ areas, and some areas from SE PA to New Jersey could approach 1 foot of snow. Image #3: Arctic shortwave (see the purple circle over Mississippi on the map) has progressed to the base of the trough already. This will cause the trough to tilt negative in the next 3-4 hours. Given that the trough axis is still well west of us, this will cause the eastward march of the precip shield to halt and expand, and the coastal SHOULD be held closer to the coast. This should result in heavy snow for several hours into the overnight for just about all of the area. This will remain a dry powdery snow that will accumulate quickly, and winds will increase overnight to 15-25mph sustained with higher gusts over 30mph, so there will be blowing and drifting of snow. If you are worried about dry slots on radar, don't be... this will go through the night and will be heaviest for eastern PA and New Jersey between about 7pm and 3am. We will be watching the radar for frontogentic banding to occur, and best chance for that to occur us from the Lehigh Valley and points east and southeast."

by Dwsi91 Thu Jan 02, 2014 6:25 pm

Can you post image or link to site

by **Quietace** Thu Jan 02, 2014 6:26 pm

https://www.facebook.com/easternpaweatherauthority

by Dwsi91 Thu Jan 02, 2014 6:27 pm

Thanks

by **skinsfan1177** Thu Jan 02, 2014 6:28 pm

Ace I think 6 to 12 is right but im leaning on the higher end of that. Is the low trying to form

by **Quietace** Thu Jan 02, 2014 6:29 pm

skinsfan1177 wrote:Ace I think 6 to 12 is right but im leaning on the higher end of that. Is the low trying to form

Finally did 1014mb in NC
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/s19/pmsl/pmsl.gif?1388705345435

by **skinsfan1177** Thu Jan 02, 2014 6:30 pm

that's good right 1004 or 1014

by **Quietace** Thu Jan 02, 2014 6:31 pm

Funny, the Rap last run had the low weak and east of where it formed.

by **Quietace** Thu Jan 02, 2014 6:31 pm

skinsfan1177 wrote:that's good right 1004 or 1014

Mistype, yes 1004mb

by **skinsfan1177** Thu Jan 02, 2014 6:33 pm

so as of now that's right on target right . what I mean is that were the low was projected to be

by **Quietace** Thu Jan 02, 2014 6:34 pm

Euro had Low pretty much perfect placement in terms of forming it. And you see how the 12z run was.

by **skinsfan1177** Thu Jan 02, 2014 6:35 pm

yes so great news

by **Quietace** Thu Jan 02, 2014 6:37 pm

Latest HRRR verified to warm early in its run. Its snow down to the coast right now. Down to 30.

by **Quietace** Thu Jan 02, 2014 6:41 pm

HRRR still has some light snow left over at 7am
Observations/ Final Discussion Thread 1/2 - 1/3, 2014 Snowstorm - Page 7 Hrrr_t10

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