January 22nd Storm Discussion/Observatiom

Models have brought back light snow on this day. Lets see if it trends stronger. These short waves can be funny sometimes. Could be a 1-3 inch deal.

Right now looks like a 1" event on the NAM at least the GFS is less.

My Blog is up on Wild About Weather for the potential storm Monday Night-Tuesday!
http://www.wildaboutweather.com/alex-iannone.html

HPC Increased their percentages from earlier today!!!
Prob of 1"
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf_24hr/prb_24hsnow_ge01_2013012000f072.gif

Prob of 2"
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf_24hr/prb_24hsnow_ge02_2013012000f072.gif

Prob of 4"
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf_24hr/prb_24hsnow_ge04_2013012000f072.gif

Prob of 6"
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf_24hr/prb_24hsnow_ge06_2013012000f072.gif

From NWS Taunton about Monday Night- Tuesday

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY... MAIN FOCUS ON THE FORECAST WAS ON THIS
PARTICULAR TIMEFRAME AS COLD ARCTIC AIR AND COASTAL STORM WILL BE
OCCURRING. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH A SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND DEVELOP A COASTAL STORM OFF OF THE SE WATERS.
ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT TIMING FOR
PRECIP...APPEARS THAT COASTAL STORM WILL PASS THROUGH OVERNIGHT
MONDAY AND LINGERING INTO TUESDAY. THIS APPEARS TO BE AN INVERTED
TROUGH LIKE SET-UP. THEREFORE BECAUSE OF THE CONSISTENCY AMONGST
THE MODELS HAVE INCREASED POP CHANCES. BECAUSE OF THE ARCTIC
CHILL...PRECIP TYPE WILL BE MAINLY SNOW. AGAIN STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTIES AMONGST EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY BUT FOR NOW
BELIEVE MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE AROUND 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW
WITH THE SE COASTAL REGIONS NEARING 3 TO 5 INCHES.

15z SREF says LI Special!!
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/2013011909/SREF_SNOWFALL_MAX_f072.gif

Great blog Alex.

SREF's are interesting. Lets see if they can get some support.

Thanks Frank, and take a look at this and also read the updated NWS Upton discussion if u want to put a smile on your face!
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=OKX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

Nice write up Alex! I will be staying cautiously optimistic until Sunday night/Monday morning.

Hello 0z nam. How i love u. Nam shows a nice swatch of snow for nyc, LI. Looks cold too. Cant post images from my phone. Hopefully someome else can.

0z Nam and SREF are about 6-7in for LI

The nam was useless until last weeks storm...hopefully its on to something.

GFS is a low resolution model so don't expect it to do well with this system. NAM is very nice. Tomorrows model runs will be very interesting.

EURO has nothing for this event. LOL

SREF still has the .25 contour line just west of NYC. The Cape gets .50 of precip.

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=sref&area=namer&param=precip_p24&cycle=09&image=sref%2F09%2Fsref_namer_054_precip_p24.gif

Amy Freeze this am on Channel 7 was very conservative IMO on the snow totals for the Mon-Wed snow potential. She has nothing more than fluries for the majority of the area and a c-2" for extreme SE LI. I am holding out on a detailed discussion until I see how today's models trend. A major wild card in the forecast is the potential for a NorLun trough set up. Historically very difficult to predict both when, where, and IF it actually sets up. These features have the potential to drop significant snow total in very short periods of time (3-6+" in 6hrs), but typically only in a narrow 50-75mile band. With or without a Norlun trough I still think Channel 7 is under doing this potential, but lets see what today brings.

SREF is garbage IMO, those snow maps are as bullish as they can get, remember what they were showing for previous storms and this very last one that no-one got any precip from?

Yeah Tom, I don't like it either, total bust last time around.

I agree the sref def seems to be putting out the most QPF but has some support from the nam. Some of the other high res mode deals are showing much less QPF. By tonight should have a lock on the situation. People a lot smarter than me still seem to think; however that a norlun trough is still possible with this set up. IMO IF that we're to set up the axis would be over ct/ mass/ ri.

Right, but we only need a small amount of precip from the strengthening low on LI to get 3-4" bc of high ratios

If a norlun sets up it will be in NE. I don't see more than a few snow showers for the majority of us as of now.

I don't think NYC or LI will see the norlun, IMO 1-2" for you guys, C-1" for me, slight coastal enhancement for eastern half of LI but storm will strengthen too late to bring in more moisture except for NE and the Massachusetts area may be the jackpot.

UPDATED: Amounts went up and i expect them to increase it again after 0z
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/okx/stormtotalprecip.php

I don't think those will go up, most of the models are very dry, they're placing too much money on the NAM IMO it hasn't been very good lately.

I agree with Tom on this one. It honestly depends where the norlun sets up. And that is hard to determine before hand. Nowcast type storm