January 22nd Storm Discussion/Observatiom

I don't think those will go up, most of the models are very dry, they're placing too much money on the NAM IMO it hasn't been very good lately.

I agree with Tom on this one. It honestly depends where the norlun sets up. And that is hard to determine before hand. Nowcast type storm

What's the timing looking like for Monday and Tuesday light snow? I know it is a nowcast situation, but is the time frame that we could see snow set? Thanks.

Kevin,

It will most likely come in the overnight period.

Thank you sir!

Upton HWO:

A LIGHT SNOWFALL EVENT IS FORECAST FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 1
TO 4 INCHES...HIGHEST ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST
CONNECTICUT. THIS WOULD RESULT IN HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS.

NAM says what storm?

Strenghtens the low well offshore. Southern NE does well.

Jesus...

Do you think thats right frank? Thats a far jog east.

Mets2695 wrote:Do you think thats right frank? Thats a far jog east.

Like I said, strictly a nowcast event. Models will not pick up on where the trough will set up. I am not even going to bother with a snowfall map. We could get 0 inches. We could get 3. Time will tell.

Look at this future cast, precip really explodes for NYC on East http://landing.newsinc.com/wpix/video.html?freewheel=91044&sitesection=wpix&VID=24252183

00z GFS brings light snow back into the metro area, with eastern end of LI and southern NE doing very well. Looks like a general coating to 1.5 inches for us, and 2-4 inches for eastern LI and SNE

Frank, eastern LI looks to have the same amount of Precip as me and im in central LI

Mets2695 wrote:Frank, eastern LI looks to have the same amount of Precip as me and im in central LI

Not really...they get a good thumping on the east end

ya thats a better graphic. the NCEP site total qpf looked like all of LI was the same

For anyone upset with the NAM

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1148 PM EST SUN JAN 20 2013

VALID JAN 21/0000 UTC THRU JAN 24/1200 UTC

...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...

00Z NAM/GFS EVALUATION

TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHEAST...
...LOW OFFSHORE THE NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...

PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

THE MDLS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A SFC LOW DEEPENING JUST OFFSHORE NEW
ENGLAND BY EARLY TUES AS STRONG HT FALLS ADVANCE THROUGH THE GRT
LAKES REGION AND INTO THE NORTHEAST. THE 00Z NAM AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT THE 00Z GFS APPEAR A LITTLE TOO SHARP/AGGRESSIVE WITH ITS
INVERTED/NORLUN TROUGH EXTENDING BACK WEST OF THE LOW CENTER.
HOWEVER...THE 00Z GFS HAS TRENDED A LITTLE MORE ROBUST WITH ITS
JET MAX/VORT ENERGY CROSSING THE OH VLY AND MID-ATLANTIC AS IT
ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. THIS YIELDS A SOMEWHAT STRONGER SFC
LOW OFFSHORE AND A STRONGER INVERTED TROUGH. GIVEN THE GFS
TREND...WILL FAVOR A 00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF BLEND.

So fortunately temps will not be an issue with this quick moving clipper system. Ratios around the area should be pretty decent. The total QPF being printed out by the various models really seems limited to between 0.1-0.25" max with some locally higher amounts along the eastern CT/RI/Ma area. Many including myself have mentioned the possibility of a Norlun trough set up. I personally do not think it will as the models have the LP systems moving too fast; however that being said there still remains a possibility. The models have been pretty consistent in showing an inverted trough set up off the RI/CT/Mass/SMaine coast line and extending inland a bit. So if there is going to be any enhancement to snow totals due to convergence from a Norlun trough type of set up that is where it would be. The LP will be intensifying off the NE coast as well which should also enhance totals in that area. Here is my snow map for tonight into tomorrow.

https://2img.net/r/ihimizer/img189/8992/jan22th2013.png

Looks like our EPAWA map. Nicely done Doc.

Reports of heavy snow breaking out in PA

Light snow Centereach LI. Suffolk county

7 flakes with first batch. Heavy snow. 1.5 inches thus far in about 45 mins

I got shafted big time

I have about 1.8 inches so far. Still snowing hard.

Quietace wrote:I have about 1.8 inches so far. Still snowing hard.

Well...look at you. Lol. Nice! Post a pic if you can

Do I need to use image shack here or copy and paste lol

Just cam from wading river and its snowing really hard about 2". Just five miles away at home in rocky point it's light to moderate with about 3/4".

Quietace wrote:Do I need to use image shack here or copy and paste lol

Whatever works for you. To get the image to show on here, you just copy and paste the link into the "image" icon of the forum. You can also upload the pic from your desktop using the "host an image" option.

Still snowing hard
https://2img.net/r/ihimg/f/198/snowga.jpg/