January 25th-26th Storm Observations

This image represents the 12z GGEM, EURO, and GFS models around 120 hours, right as the Friday storm system begins to develop. It appears we are beginning to see some consistency with the models in bringing a relatively weak primary and cutting it through PA. Then, a secondary develops but tracks well offshore. ALL THREE MODELS SHOW SOMETHING IN THAT FASHION HAPPENING.

So we have consistency?

I am still skeptical. I have been on just the one-low train with this storm since I first began tracking it. I do not like the idea of a primary cutting west and a secondary forming to the south. I think the ridge is amplified enough to dig the primary into the trough more and phase both pieces of energy together to form just 1 storm system, not 2.

A problem we are seeing is the lack of blocking. But there is potent confluence. If the storm system does end up becoming 2 low's, the NAO will be to blame for this one. Also, the constant bombardment of vorts into our Pac Ridge is extremely frustrating because our +PNA is being disturbed and also effecting our chances of getting a well-organized storm. We finally have the cold air this go around, so hopefully it does not go to waste. I think by Tuesday, models will start showing the 1 storm idea again.

18z GFS is much colder. All snow. But it's a weak system

Yeah, a decent thump of snow though looks like 4-8" for most of us, I'd take it over that earlier run and the EURO mess. Looks like we can't get a strong coastal so far, we either get a strong primary that cuts west and is heavy snow to mix to rain or a weaker storm that remains 1 that is further south and weaker with moderate snow.

Is that DGEX? Lol.

Hour 84, GFS is colder from 12z

GFS brings 5-10 inches of snow to the area

The gfs tn did like nice. About .5-.75 ti the naked eye on my phone ..looked pretty cold too.

.5-.75 qpf

Its nice to see u in line with my one storm taking the southern root idea. I really think thats how it plays out.

6-10 inches

and once again LI has no snow on the GFS snow map. I dont get it. Do you have any idea why frank?

It is too small so the resolution does not get picked up. You would also be in the orange color

thank god haha

I'm right on the border of the dark orange in CNJ, good run for NJ, NYC and LI. Wanna see what the foreigns say later.

Woops, the key got cut off. The medium orange is 6 inches and the dark orange is 8 inches

UKIE is beautiful.

EURO looks like GFS

WOw...great runs tonight

GFS brings about 5-10 inches of snow to our area on Friday

12z UKMET has a coastal

Wow at the 12z GEFS Mean!!!

Will post 12z EURO when it updates on Accu Pro, heard it's good.

BLOG

http://epawablogs.com/significant-east-coast-storm-brewing/

EURO Ensembles look like OP.

This is game on!