January 25th-26th Storm Observations

amugs wrote:I just saw Lee on Channel 7 and he is saying with his future cast that we may see a dusting - ho weth ehell do we go from a plowable possibly 6" + storm to a frickin dusting?? Frank, I hope that something is up but from what he showed and the three other networks it looks like a total bust not even a smidge of snow - snow showers. We shall see and I will be in tonight.

Lee is just going by what latest models show. I briefly spoke to him on Facebook yesterday. He said if we can squeeze out .10 qpf, we could get 2 inches of snow. I'll take it...

Snowlover123 wrote:There were some definite good trends on today's model runs, especially with the upper air set up. I still think it's possible for a moderate event to be salvaged from this, but I think ultimately, the final result will not be as good as advertised by the 18z GFS two days ago. Maybe we can pull off half of the precip the 18z GFS had from two days ago, but even that may be stretching it.

Agree, and welcome to the board.
The ratios as mentioned by some above will be very good, so even 0.2" of liquid could be a nice moderate event for some.

18z RGEM

EVERYONE IN THE CHAT ROOM BY 9PM TONIGHT!!!!

No help from the SREF. Next up is the Nam.

Snow88 wrote:No help from the SREF. Next up is the Nam.

SREF's are terrible.

1-3 inches is a good bet. Really sad that we can't get more. I hate when the Euro teases us.

With QPF amounts currently modeled looks like 1-2, 2 if were end up with 20-1 ratios. What a lousy storm that could have been 5-10 if things came together right like it was modeled earlier this week.

I am so frustrated right now with this storm or lack thereof. I know I shouldn't be, because hey its weather and I guess technically there is still 36hrs before the event begins. But watching the models and teleconnections this year and last has become a twisted story of the boy who cried wolf. I mean even the professional talents on TV and other sources of media were excited about this storms potential not more than a few days ago. Needless to say I will be very skeptical of future potential events until I wake up and the snow is on the ground. Rant over.

The weather will be what it will be. I just wish it be snowing.

That's true...TV mets were pretty excited. But oh well.

Not much else to see here.

1 to 3 inches

Some areas will see under an inch (the further north and west you are).

sroc4 wrote:I am so frustrated right now with this storm or lack thereof. I know I shouldn't be, because hey its weather and I guess technically there is still 36hrs before the event begins. But watching the models and teleconnections this year and last has become a twisted story of the boy who cried wolf. I mean even the professional talents on TV and other sources of media were excited about this storms potential not more than a few days ago. Needless to say I will be very skeptical of future potential events until I wake up and the snow is on the ground. Rant over.

The weather will be what it will be. I just wish it be snowing.

Actually, Bill on the 7 board a few days ago was starting to downplay the storms potential because he saw the lack of phasing.Don't know about the other mets.

These models always jerk you around.Can't get your hopes up until the day before the storm.It's interesting to see a potential storm on models days away, but it's only a possibility not a probability.

And, hey, sroc, 880 AM News Radio just said dusting to 2 inches but the possibillity of a bit more out on the Island, so you may get that 2 to 3 inches after all.We up here in NNJ will get a dusting to an inch at best.

There is no doubt that even a minor shift to the track north could create a slight uptick in the QPF. With ratios going to be extremely high, a bonus inch or two is not out of the question esp for us out on the Island. With around 20:1 ratios 0.05" of QPF vs 0.15" of QPF (only a tenth of an inch diff) would be the difference of 1-3". Increase that by another 0.1" QPF and you have 5". Ratios could be a little higher or lower. Ill take it. And yes Bill started to down play the potential right around the same time as the rest of us started to see the models take that 24 hr trend away from the stronger phase. My point was that even he was excited for at least a moderate event for the majority of the coverage area at the begining of the week.

I cant make any money like this, i drive myself crazy only to be disappionted

my accumulation went from 1/2 in. to 2.1 as per nws mt holly

Craig Allen

"Based on 12z nam, gfs and rgem, we're likely to see anything from a dusting to an inch or 3. Nam and gfs qpf values are < .10". Normally, that converts to about 1" but the air is cold and snow will be subject to the 'fluff factor'- light and powdery- so the conversion might be as much as 15 or 20:1.
The rgem qpf is a little more robust, developing the offshore system a little faster and throwing back .15" to .25" which could tally up to about 3" especially eastern suburbs."

Sounds about right

IMO almost everyone in the area will end up with around 2 inches which will be by next week due to the GLC. Man, so bummed, could have easily been 4-8/5-10 if things went right.

I'm done with this storm. The inch or two some of us may squeeze out of it I find more annoying than anything.
Hopefully we have better luck with the next one.

Yeah I know, actually I change my forecast to C-2 because I'm wondering if the very cold and dry air may kill any of the precip???

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/stormtotalprecip.php

Next one will be a good week + away since it will be getting into the 40"s next week with that GLC. Hopefuly we will get back to normal winterlike temps by the end of next week after that storm but from what I have read and see posted it doesn't look it. Next month - February- is when we will be talking aboout the possibility because this month is practically over in terms of storms for us - NNJ area. This blows!

This was the GGEM on Monday <_<

GFS has snow showers. It will certainly look like winter tomorrow with everything covered.

Oh Anthony...why must you post what the GGEM showed for tomorrow's storm. So depressing. Lol

ALL models showed something like that happening...

and now..

we get coatings!

Coating to an inch is the best call right now. O well, I guess it will be nice to see everything covered in snow. Onto the next one ( whenever that will be )

RGEM gives NYC about 5 hours of light snow.

Upton is using 20:1 ratios

Have about 2 inches on the ground, comming down alot slower now. Rough photo but snow still comming.
https://2img.net/r/ihimg/f/201/snow2a.jpg/