March 17th-18th Storm Potential Discussion

UKMET is also digging into Mexico. So the GFS has support and is a feasible solution.

skins the NAM 12z came in with a good dump but as we know is not reliable at this range, GFS sucks 12z, dunno about Euro and CMC as they haven't come in yet.

Jman Gfs keepd it suppressed?

ugg come on frank ur killin me, I think I am just gonna throw in the towel, not angry or upset but tracking just seems tobe a waste of time with these storms in March. Sorry if I sound like a debbie downer, just having a real bad day. I am sure i'll come around tonight.

Frank just said coating to a inche and instantwxmaps shows nothing even close to NYC.

But how how far south i mean is it a hot for cnj

mostly central to southern jersey, central being the least with a sharp cutoff. I wouldn't rely on it too much as Frank said even though its feasible the GFS has been comical.

besides the s/w digging into mexico, the polar vortex has also shifted south on both gfs and nam at 12z. I think cp mentioned high temps for Monday have come down. very concerning. waiting on the cmc hopefully it holds serve

so now were buying the long range NAM over the short range GFS, we saw this with 3/3 and I told u guys not to get excited early

NJ, me personally am not buying anything, no consensus, NAM is my favorite obviously but fantasy land right now but not impossible. Bernies video was good and by no means a KOD. IMO

cmc is way south like gfs looks like we could be done with this one

algae888 wrote:cmc is way south like gfs looks like we could be done with this one

Once it turns against us in this time frame I doubt it's going back.

algae, you know this happens wafflinf as has been called it we still have quite a few runs before sunday night so I wouldn't say we are done with it. What do you NJ, Frank, CP , doc, snowman think?

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:

algae888 wrote:cmc is way south like gfs looks like we could be done with this one

Once it turns against us in this time frame I doubt it's going back.

Cant believe weve lost 2 march snowstorms to the south, climo says it should be the opposite but it seems snow breeds snow and there hasnt been much around here in the past month, god I hate the southern mid atlantic

Great oh well, thanks CP I will go on with business as usual then. So we are assuming the NAM has no place in this? We have seen storms go back before its still 3 1/2 days out. No hope at all? Squashed just like that?

NjWeatherGuy wrote:

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:

algae888 wrote:cmc is way south like gfs looks like we could be done with this one

Once it turns against us in this time frame I doubt it's going back.

Cant believe weve lost 2 march snowstorms to the south, climo says it should be the opposite but it seems snow breeds snow and there hasnt been much around here in the past month, god I hate the southern mid atlantic

NJ our only hope now is that it's mid march and maybe just maybe the models are over doing the PV. I think there will be a shift either north or south. todays solutions are probably not final but losing hope for this one quickly

Well 3 days, I was going into the possible event. Anyways I am not discounting it until Sunday, stranger things have happened. As Rayno said its very complex and the models have no clue, especially about the second piece. He is going to post a snow map this afternoon, not sure thats such a great idea but we will see. Someone let me know later what the Euro does, it could be our saving grace.

Jman put it this way, I put my shovels away, drained my snow blowers of gas and put anything else that has to do with winter or snow removal away already so what does that tell you. I have a feeling Monday will turn out partly cloudy and cold. The storm that the folks are tracking right now IMO will probably stay South of our area. Well I should say where I'm located. Remember we missed the first two, and the old saying is things come in threes. So this would make our third missed storm. I have a feeling we're done with snow for this winter season. That's just my opinion though.

There is only one thing left that can save this storm,you know what you have to do Frank, if this isn't evidence enough I don't know what is.

Kill the thread Frank, if that's still possible, it's brought us nothing but misery.

This isn't Voodoo were practicing, this is now scientific fact.

I think its becoming obvious the energy crashing and amplifying the ridge out west is becoming a problem.
It continues to force energy from the southern stream south into mexico, causing the vort to be weaker and less organized and more sheared out as it moves east.
This could either be good data being fed into the 12z cycle. Or considering the vorticity is not yet on shore it could be over modeled. If the models continue showing this into tonight, it would be obvious that the data is correct and northern areas might lose out.

algae888 wrote:

NjWeatherGuy wrote:

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:

algae888 wrote:cmc is way south like gfs looks like we could be done with this one

Once it turns against us in this time frame I doubt it's going back.

Cant believe weve lost 2 march snowstorms to the south, climo says it should be the opposite but it seems snow breeds snow and there hasnt been much around here in the past month, god I hate the southern mid atlantic

NJ our only hope now is that it's mid march and maybe just maybe the models are over doing the PV. I think there will be a shift either north or south. todays solutions are probably not final but losing hope for this one quickly

The PV is not the problem with this storm. Its the ridging and ST energy consolidation.

Trends of late winter don't seem to have changed. Guess there is gardening to look forward to. Disappoint so much unrealized potential for us.

only positive I can take from today was on the cmc the second wave came much further north. reyno commented that the models have no clue what to do with it. there is room for it to come north. lets see what future guidance says. over all a big disappointment today.

algae888 wrote:only positive I can take from today was on the cmc the second wave came much further north. reyno commented that the models have no clue what to do with it. there is room for it to come north. lets see what future guidance says. over all a big disappointment today.

Ill wait to say this threat is looking bleak until the 0z data tonight on the models. We have seen sudden shifts before. The second wave most likley wont be effecting us if the 1st wave stays to our south.

We have blamed everthing else Might as well blame this one on "La Nina"

Frank I don't agree with your analysis of the GFS being terrible, it has had problems on certain storms, but if the southern solution here is indeed true which is looking like it may be possible (remains to be seen ATM) then the GFS is really the model that led the way. The EURO had it's long rang amplified bias showing this as a huge storm more than 120 hours out, the GFS had the southeast bias in it's long range, but has remained fairly consistent along with the past few runs of the EURO in showing a more suppressed sheared out system. The CMC was BS as usual with it's mid to long range over-amped bias and the NAM is likely in it's long range amped bias right now. Overall in mid-range GFS has done best should this solution verify, the EURO was too amped in long range and came in line with GFS, NAM, CMC, and SREFs are crap as usual with these setups (3/3 CMC 30" of snow).

FWIW NAVGEM trended from a nice storm 18z yesterday and 0z last night to a total miss today at 12z.