March 17th-18th Storm Potential Discussion

Frank I don't agree with your analysis of the GFS being terrible, it has had problems on certain storms, but if the southern solution here is indeed true which is looking like it may be possible (remains to be seen ATM) then the GFS is really the model that led the way. The EURO had it's long rang amplified bias showing this as a huge storm more than 120 hours out, the GFS had the southeast bias in it's long range, but has remained fairly consistent along with the past few runs of the EURO in showing a more suppressed sheared out system. The CMC was BS as usual with it's mid to long range over-amped bias and the NAM is likely in it's long range amped bias right now. Overall in mid-range GFS has done best should this solution verify, the EURO was too amped in long range and came in line with GFS, NAM, CMC, and SREFs are crap as usual with these setups (3/3 CMC 30" of snow).

FWIW NAVGEM trended from a nice storm 18z yesterday and 0z last night to a total miss today at 12z.

Quietace wrote:I think its becoming obvious the energy crashing and amplifying the ridge out west is becoming a problem.
It continues to force energy from the southern stream south into mexico, causing the vort to be weaker and less organized and more sheared out as it moves east.
This could either be good data being fed into the 12z cycle. Or considering the vorticity is not yet on shore it could be over modeled. If the models continue showing this into tonight, it would be obvious that the data is correct and northern areas might lose out.  

This.

Every single piece of guidance trended miserably today. Either bad data or fact. Won't know for sure until 12z tomorrow. Even 00z tonight, which is when northern stream energy gets better sampled.

Latest Bernie video "The NAM is worthless, don't even look at it here"

did anyone look at the ensemble's today. are they showing anything different from the operational runs

algae888 wrote:did anyone look at the ensemble's today. are they showing anything different from the operational runs

GEFS look like OP. South and weak.

ALL pieces of data are south today. The problem is even if the northern stream is just slightly weaker entering the Pacific Northwest, it significantly changes the evolution of the storm. We will have to wait until tomorrow 12z runs. Even 00z tonight I still find spectacle

NjWeatherGuy wrote:Latest Bernie video "The NAM is worthless, don't even look at it here"

we've been saying that too.

Frank_Wx wrote:

NjWeatherGuy wrote:Latest Bernie video "The NAM is worthless, don't even look at it here"

we've been saying that too.

I know, just reiterating that it's just foolish to hug in the long range, a good NAM run and everyone is excited but until the GFS/EURO and others get on board it's just eye candy.

If its not gonna storm, snow then it needs to warm up, I need to move into a new storage facility (my stuff that is) and its too cold to do it now. So let it snow or get nice.

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:There is only one thing left that can save this storm,you know what you have to do Frank, if this isn't evidence enough I don't know what is.

Kill the thread Frank, if that's still possible, it's brought us nothing but misery.

This isn't Voodoo were practicing, this is now scientific fact.

I deleted it.

its still here, really not even gonna give it a chance?

jmanley32 wrote:its still here, really not even gonna give it a chance?

Not this thread. The one CP made in late February. He has cursed the rest of our winter and I may have to ban him soon

I am honestly gonna lose. my. S***. I can NOT wake up to ANY MORE WX disappointment this year, I just cannot!!!!!

Oh ok Frank, I was like dang, still a few days to go, I hope ur kidding about banning him, your rules don't say anything about being superstitious lol.

Frank_Wx wrote:

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:There is only one thing left that can save this storm,you know what you have to do Frank, if this isn't evidence enough I don't know what is.

Kill the thread Frank, if that's still possible, it's brought us nothing but misery.

This isn't Voodoo were practicing, this is now scientific fact.

I deleted it.

You did the right thing. Hopefully this keeps me from being banned.

I expect the models to trend back our way tonight.

Ah the relief.

soul I hear ya, I kinda lied last night I was being optimistic but today sucks. BUT you never know with the wx. 18z could revert again and again at 00z and again at 06z tomorrow. Its all a big game.

SoulSingMG wrote:I am honestly gonna lose. my. S***. I can NOT wake up to ANY MORE WX disappointment this year, I just cannot!!!!!

Maybe your the reason why this great winter has suddenly took a turn for the worst. I expect a speech from you by 10pm tonight to explain yourself.

jmanley32 wrote:Oh ok Frank, I was like dang, still a few days to go, I hope ur kidding about banning him, your rules don't say anything about being superstitious lol.

Lol, just having some fun. This has been a great winter weather wise AND on this forum. And for that, I'm extremely happy.

I figured as much but just checking people have been kinda edgy recently and understandably. I want to see the NAm as it gets into range if it holds then we could be ok.

I don't even know which thread you were talking about CP and Frank but if it reverses and curses then good.

jmanley32 wrote:I don't even know which thread you were talking about CP and Frank but if it reverses and curses then good.

We can only hope we killed it in time. We should know by tomorrow night.

yeah I know, I have to focus on other things to keep my mind off it maybe I am subconsciously doing something to affect it, ahhhhhh! I am going crazy in my thinking lol

Frank_Wx wrote:

SoulSingMG wrote:I am honestly gonna lose. my. S***. I can NOT wake up to ANY MORE WX disappointment this year, I just cannot!!!!!

Maybe your the reason why this great winter has suddenly took a turn for the worst. I expect a speech from you by 10pm tonight to explain yourself.

jmanley32 wrote:Oh ok Frank, I was like dang, still a few days to go, I hope ur kidding about banning him, your rules don't say anything about being superstitious lol.

Lol, just having some fun. This has been a great winter weather wise AND on this forum. And for that, I'm extremely happy.

You're right, Frank. It's me. I booked a trip to the Bahamas for the beginning of April, stating I just couldn't take this harsh Winter anymore & needed a break and some real good Vit D behind my eyes. Apparently, Mother Nature heard me LOUD AND CLEAAAAAAAAAAAR.   

Dare I post...ahem...a HM post about the 12z disappointing suites....

The 12z runs made some subtle long wave changes that affected the way our s/w manifests. Initially, you'll look at the models and say "more energy is hanging back/split off" and really that would be a fine analysis. The issue here is that the subtle changes in the western ridge affects the jet across the northern-tier. Between this process and the slower exit of the PV (which by itself wouldn't be a big deal...but it is a killer in combination with broadening western ridge), the flow speeds up, reducing partial phasing of s/w.

Here's the good news before you start to compare how amazingly annoying that it was the 12z runs 2Fridays ago that also started to shift the storm: that 3/3 system was being punished by a much more wicked PV and lobe dropping down from Ontario. In fact, it pushed in considerable dry and cold air advection throughout the precipitation shield, reducing accumulating snow to just the convergence zones post-initial thump WAA. In this case, despite the 12z shifts, we are still seeing frontogenetic forcing within general WAA across MA. This means, old rules apply about "edge of QPF shield" since that is conveniently placed along the 850mb deformation zone."

Come Sunday night I will be gorging on corned beef and cabbage. Washing it down with homemade baileys melodramatically cursing the dry cold sky knowing that SROC will not be obligated to keep his word and make snow angels in the near buff to the amusement of this board. Yes thus winter was good to us and lots of fun. Thanks again to everybody as your posts taught me quite a bit about the weather. Cheers and happy spring. But one more storm could not have hurt.

Grselig wrote:Come Sunday night I will be gorging on corned beef and cabbage.   Washing it down with homemade baileys melodramatically cursing the dry cold sky knowing that SROC will not be obligated to keep his word and make snow angels in the near buff to the amusement of this board.   Yes thus winter was good to us and lots of fun.   Thanks again to everybody as your posts taught me quite a bit about the weather.  Cheers and happy spring.  But one more storm could not have hurt.    

Cheers!

Grselig wrote:Come Sunday night I will be gorging on corned beef and cabbage.   Washing it down with homemade baileys melodramatically cursing the dry cold sky knowing that SROC will not be obligated to keep his word and make snow angels in the near buff to the amusement of this board.   Yes thus winter was good to us and lots of fun.   Thanks again to everybody as your posts taught me quite a bit about the weather.  Cheers and happy spring.  But one more storm could not have hurt.    

The THREAD is now DEAD.

Keep hope alive.

12z euro says...snow flurries!