Re: Official Long Range Thread 3.0

[devsman]

Jman. It seems the GFS has the same pattern of maps for the last 4 months. Shows a huge storm in 2 weeks, then moves that storm to a week later, then all the sudden makes it disappear within a 6 hour window. I'm starting to lose faith in that model for any big nor'easter it shows. Hopefully it will be more reliable in the winter.

[jmanley32]

dev I agree, to a extent, but this has been brought back and gone for a while now and it has been landing in the US generally around the same time so unlike in May and June it isnt constantly moving back in time. Was just a observation a WHAT IF, senario. As I said premature.

[amugs]

Here is fantasy by the GFS.

[jmanley32]

Not as easy reading to me what run is this? The past 3 runshave shown a major storm around 14-16th. Still 11-2 days off, too far but something to watch as that time of year has had numerous rough storms.

[jmanley32]

Oh I see its the 06z, yeah I saw on another map, 60-90+ kt 850mb winds, and heavy rain? Why would everything be to the lows south? Is that a phase situation between 324 and 336? Bu5t Fantasy, especially if it was cold enough : ) But its not going to be is it?

[jmanley32]

GFS continuing with a big storm around the 16/17th, gotta love the model. If it dshows this move up in time past 240 hrs then I might start to believe it.

[jmanley32]

Also to note that other models (FIM, CMC and NAV-GEM), except the Euro have started to show something brewing down there near panama in deep carribbean  although doesnt go forther than 10 days, if the time keeps coming down as it has been now for past days I  think we may have a viable threat if stays on same track. SO either the Euro is stubborn as usual until closer in time or its spot on and there really is nothing going to happen (even down there). There is a area of disturbed weather and some convection firing up down there though.

[devsman]

The latest GFS shows 2 sub-990mb lows less than 800 miles apart at the same time on the 17th. It looks fun but I won't buy it til 7 days before.

[jmanley32]

18z went a different route with a huge costal with screaming winds, however still holding to the time frame in fact now it has it from obx to nova scotia in 12 hrs on the 16th, holy crap, and just misses the area, such a wide spread but if it continues to hold at that date that puts a bit more confidence in me, 10 days is my threshold and 7 days yes dev is even better.  Looks to start to come together in about 6 days in the deep carribbean, we need that first.  Still need to watch.

[jmanley32]

70mph sustained, wow. It was west now east who knows where it will go, or if it will even form. Something in my gut tells me this is not looking good but thats going on the relentlessly unreliable GFS this summer and my gut so nothing concrete.

[skinsfan1177]

Yeah jman I love the enthusiasm about the weather I will be puuting more faith in the models if its still their at 7 days. October is known for some bad storms. I hope not I have my yard all decorated already for Halloween lol

[jmanley32]

Yeah people in my area took nothing down for Sandy and it was a mess. I will chill until next week, or try at least lol.

[Math23x7]

The 850 mb temperature map on hr 24 of the 12Z Hi-Res NAM gets me excited. Too bad it's not going to snow on the coast.

[algae888]

just posted tele comm. in obs section. 12z gfs looks to be on to something for next sat and then the one jman has been talking about around 15th. after that look for a significant cool down. with the signals out there models may be slow to catch on so don't be surprised by some extreme weather in the next two weeks.

[amugs]

Al,

If you recall I posted a map from Mr Euro earlier saying a big trough was going to slide over the east coast around the 15th and looked to be an active period - possible coastals - would not surprise and thanks for bringing it up again - Oct can churn up some good storms.

Winter analogs flying around wx boards are for a 1978-79, 1995-96 type winter - we shall see  due to various factors of course (the one's In Frank We Trust handed out at our gathering - QBO scale, solar activity and planetary signals/alignments)

It is going to be tough because even though the AO is to tank -2+ and the NAO goes negative but further North in the Atlantic is  seems to be a pretty fast flow across the CONUS as per the 6Z GFS yesterday. Hey it could all change sure  but we'll see

[algae888]

Al,

If you recall I posted a map from Mr Euro earlier saying a big trough was going to slide over the east coast around the 15th and looked to be an active period - possible coastals - would not surprise and thanks for bringing it up again - Oct can churn up some good storms.

Winter analogs flying around wx boards are for a 1978-79, 1995-96 type winter - we shall see  due to various factors of course (the one's In Frank We Trust handed out at our gathering - QBO scale, solar activity and planetary signals/alignments)

It is going to be tough because even though the AO is to tank -2+ and the NAO goes negative but further North in the Atlantic is  seems to be a pretty fast flow across the CONUS as per the 6Z GFS yesterday. Hey it could all change sure  but we'll see

yes mugs I remember and the gfs had it too. hopefully everything is starting to align itself so we can have a great active winter.

[algae888]

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Imageanis.php


http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Imageanis.php

this is the 500 mb map of storm jman been talking about. look at the kink in the trough (short wave) along  the east coast. it moves right up the coast.

[algae888]

well maps still aren't posting . any way its hour 276 thru 288 0n 12z gfs. I know its still a long way out but tele comm. look to good and make this one a real possibility.

[jmanley32]

Al. 12z was one scary senario, if it were to be a bit further west, 850mb winds on the 968mb low have the highest winds and precip it seems to the eastern side, however this has been all over the place but in the same general area for a while now.  Not sure what the tele comm is but if you are making some agreement with me on something at 288 hrs I am happy to at least have some support ( as I know most of you never looks past 7-10 days), even if it does not happen but something tells me that tropical system (around 8-10th) is going to develop and turn into a mega fast moving coastal/hybrid.  And recall Frank saying that we would have to watch this year for development of strong coastals, heres hoping we get the cold in place eventually for a combo later in the season : )

[jmanley32]

And just to show what the 288 hrs looks like, sheesh 109.7kt 900mb winds offshore, yikes.  Not sure what that correlates down to at surface level but if that holds intensity and is more west that going to be one heck of a storm. The other models are startin to show support of development of the tropical low sub 240 hrs now even the euro shows lowering pressures.

[NjWeatherGuy]

Just picked up my new baby today ready to take on winter, my back will thank me if there are any large snows this year. 208cc motor 24" width, 2 stage, 12" impeller and power steering Cub Cadet! Im sure its going to be the ultimate KOD for me and possibly the whole region this season but we will see I guess.

[jmanley32]

GFS ensembles stamps are starting to agree more on timing, intensity and placement too with a major coastal formed from the TS or hirricane thats shown to develop south, but it gets most intense as it heads this way.  Euro EPS 50 stamp ensembles too are now showing a coastal on some around the 16th to 17th.  Funny that CMC isn't showing much right now, GFS is either taking its place or is actually right and from what it sounds like the setup is ripe for a big one.

[amugs]

[amugs]

Wow at the gfs on my post above - Worth watching with what Al said too about the atmospheric conditions.

[jmanley32]

mugs so u think a damaging noreaster like the GFS has been showing is possible? It has been showing some seriously concerning 900mb level winds. Would be amazing if it could be snow but I don't see a cold shot of air like that in the time. Next sat looks like a strong system coming in from west too.

[skinsfan1177]

I really hope fpr no nor easter we are still recovering here at the shore.

[algae888]

I really hope fpr no nor easter we are still recovering here at the shore.

I doubt very much that we will see any thing close to sandy. however wx will be very active the next two weeks. here is disco from nws....

A FULL LATITUDE LARGE TROUGH AND CLOSED LOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE ROTATING THROUGH THE TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING. A WARM
FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY. THE
UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS A SOUTHERN STREAM
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHERN STATES AND THE NORTHERN STREAM
BECOMES MORE ZONAL. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL BE ROTATING THROUGH THE
UPPER TROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY SENDING ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM TOWARD THE AREA. WILL ONLY BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE DRY
WEATHER AND WILL INTRODUCE POPS BACK INTO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN AFFECT THE
NORTHEAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

[Sponsored content]