Official Long Range Thread 3.0
+29
Dtone
Vinnydula
Isotherm
sroc4
HectorO
mako460
HeresL
devsman
Snow88
nutleyblizzard
Analog96
oldtimer
nofoboater
GreyBeard
essexcountypete
skinsfan1177
algae888
Math23x7
Dunnzoo
jmanley32
SoulSingMG
pdubz
docstox12
aiannone
amugs
CPcantmeasuresnow
Quietace
NjWeatherGuy
Frank_Wx
33 posters
Page 32 of 32
Page 32 of 32 • 1 ... 17 ... 30, 31, 32
Re: Official Long Range Thread 3.0
0z GFS running now
aiannone- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
- Posts : 4813
Join date : 2013-01-07
Re: Official Long Range Thread 3.0
You guys can talk about the storm in the Halloween Forecast thread, since this is not really long range anymore.
Re: Official Long Range Thread 3.0
Weekly ONI check for the ENSO regions as of Oct. 22nd:
1+2: +0.8
3: +0.8
3.4: +0.5
4: +0.7
Regions 3.4 and 4 remained the same as last week. Regions 1+2 and 3 increased by 0.1 and 0.3, respectively.
1+2: +0.8
3: +0.8
3.4: +0.5
4: +0.7
Regions 3.4 and 4 remained the same as last week. Regions 1+2 and 3 increased by 0.1 and 0.3, respectively.
_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________
CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Re: Official Long Range Thread 3.0
The Siberian Chia Pet folks - grow you biag, grow!!!!
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
- Posts : 15093
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ
Re: Official Long Range Thread 3.0
Nice snow growth as per the 6Z GFS after this storm as well
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
- Posts : 15093
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ
Re: Official Long Range Thread 3.0
well with this storm about done (still holding out hope for some instability snow showers) time to look ahead. next week there are signs of another cold shot (end of week) and closed low off the coast. euro has the strongest but gfs and cmc also has trough in east with precip. also so much for the warm forecast for early-mid nov. as we will be well below normal sat thru tues before we warm up some before the aforementioned cold shot late next week. even though this weekend storm may not turn out how we wanted it was still exciting to track and get back into the flow of winter weather.
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
- Posts : 5311
Reputation : 46
Join date : 2013-02-05
Age : 61
Location : mt. vernon, new york
Re: Official Long Range Thread 3.0
I just like the fact that we are getting precip every week. Eventually when the cold is consistent, we will get the white stuff. Not worried, it is only October and there are too many variables at play this time of year. Right now I'm just trying to get a firewood delivery by Friday to take the chill out of the house this weekend!
_________________
Janet
Snowfall winter of 2023-2024 17.5"
Snowfall winter of 2022-2023 6.0"
Snowfall winter of 2021-2022 17.6" 1" sleet 2/25/22
Snowfall winter of 2020-2021 51.1"
Snowfall winter of 2019-2020 8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019 25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018 51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017 45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016 29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015 50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014 66.5"
Dunnzoo- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
- Posts : 4891
Reputation : 68
Join date : 2013-01-11
Age : 62
Location : Westwood, NJ
Re: Official Long Range Thread 3.0
Dunnzoo wrote:I just like the fact that we are getting precip every week. Eventually when the cold is consistent, we will get the white stuff. Not worried, it is only October and there are too many variables at play this time of year. Right now I'm just trying to get a firewood delivery by Friday to take the chill out of the house this weekend!
Janet who do you get your wood from? I have a guy if need be from Township - you may even know him Cliff Hedjuk.
I can PM you his # if you'd like.
Mugs
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
- Posts : 15093
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ
Re: Official Long Range Thread 3.0
Yep mugs, that's who I use!
_________________
Janet
Snowfall winter of 2023-2024 17.5"
Snowfall winter of 2022-2023 6.0"
Snowfall winter of 2021-2022 17.6" 1" sleet 2/25/22
Snowfall winter of 2020-2021 51.1"
Snowfall winter of 2019-2020 8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019 25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018 51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017 45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016 29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015 50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014 66.5"
Dunnzoo- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
- Posts : 4891
Reputation : 68
Join date : 2013-01-11
Age : 62
Location : Westwood, NJ
Re: Official Long Range Thread 3.0
Something we have to really watch for as the season unfolds is not temps in our backyard- at least not just yet. Plenty of the analogs that are showing up in the analog sets, such as 2009-10, 2003-04, and 1963-64, had warm or even very warm weather right through November.
But what's more important are two things a) coastal storms- if we don't see a nice little parade of storms somewhere near the coast, then we probably won't in the winter, and b ) the cold air in the source region.
We need to see the cold air build up in the Dakotas, the Northern Rockies, and adjacent Canada this time of year.
If the source region is warm, we won't have anywhere to tap our cold air from.
But what's more important are two things a) coastal storms- if we don't see a nice little parade of storms somewhere near the coast, then we probably won't in the winter, and b ) the cold air in the source region.
We need to see the cold air build up in the Dakotas, the Northern Rockies, and adjacent Canada this time of year.
If the source region is warm, we won't have anywhere to tap our cold air from.
Analog96- Meteorologist
- Posts : 156
Reputation : 1
Join date : 2014-03-12
Location : Elizabeth, NJ
Re: Official Long Range Thread 3.0
Analog96 wrote:Something we have to really watch for as the season unfolds is not temps in our backyard- at least not just yet. Plenty of the analogs that are showing up in the analog sets, such as 2009-10, 2003-04, and 1963-64, had warm or even very warm weather right through November.
But what's more important are two things a) coastal storms- if we don't see a nice little parade of storms somewhere near the coast, then we probably won't in the winter, and b ) the cold air in the source region.
We need to see the cold air build up in the Dakotas, the Northern Rockies, and adjacent Canada this time of year.
If the source region is warm, we won't have anywhere to tap our cold air from.
Here were the 500 mb heights and anomalies for November 2003 and November 2009, not sure offhand where November 1963 would be.
Nov. 2003: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/service/national/hgtanomaly-usa/200311.gif
Nov. 2009: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/service/national/hgtanomaly-usa/200911.gif
Math23x7- Wx Statistician Guru
- Posts : 2379
Reputation : 68
Join date : 2013-01-08
Re: Official Long Range Thread 3.0
Hey Mike do you have the link as to where I can produce those maps myself? The analog site I use has older maps.
@Greg- once this storm passes, even though it may not effect us, we would have seen 2 coastal storms in 2 weeks. With the emergence of Nino, I do not think we will have to worry about the storm but perhaps the cold air.
@Greg- once this storm passes, even though it may not effect us, we would have seen 2 coastal storms in 2 weeks. With the emergence of Nino, I do not think we will have to worry about the storm but perhaps the cold air.
_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________
CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Re: Official Long Range Thread 3.0
Frank_Wx wrote:Hey Mike do you have the link as to where I can produce those maps myself? The analog site I use has older maps.
@Greg- once this storm passes, even though it may not effect us, we would have seen 2 coastal storms in 2 weeks. With the emergence of Nino, I do not think we will have to worry about the storm but perhaps the cold air.
Frank, here is the link, but it does not give monthly 500 mb anomalies prior to 2002:
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/temp-and-precip/maps.php?imgs%5B%5D=hgtanomaly-usa&year=2014&month=9&ts=1&submitted=Submit
Math23x7- Wx Statistician Guru
- Posts : 2379
Reputation : 68
Join date : 2013-01-08
Re: Official Long Range Thread 3.0
Oh dang, that's unfortunate. Lol. Thanks though
_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________
CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Page 32 of 32 • 1 ... 17 ... 30, 31, 32
Page 32 of 32
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
|
|