Severe Weather Outbreak Possible 7/14-7/15

It definetly feels cooler out with this storms is the cold front close.

According to the wundermap its over west central PA, so not that close. We could still see new storms develop but things look to be calming down. Not in terms of rain though.

getting a lot of thunder and lightning but no wind and only light rain.

Some severe storms earlier this afternoon, but for the most part we are getting a drenching rain. We needed it.

The cells in Long Island reporting 60mph winds offshore. They're coming on shore...

Also looks like there is more rain back building. Will rain through the night here.

It does look like that and even another small line forming maybe, futurecast maps show strong t-storms moving into NYC area late overnight.

Those storms on the front end that moved through LI and now into CT just aren't giving up. My friend is visiting Lebanon which is in direct cross hairs of a storm with 60+ winds. Why is it that one cluster is holding so strong and nothing else has?

jmanley32 wrote:Those storms on the front end that moved through LI and now into CT just aren't giving up.  My friend is visiting Lebanon which is in direct cross hairs of a storm with 60+ winds.  Why is it that one cluster is holding so strong and nothing else has?

Lots of bulk shear and convergence along the immediate coast ahead of the front.

well after looking at reporting stations rainfall totals so far forecast was a bust. most mets had area getting 3-5" of rain. of the 8 stations I looked at only white plains had 3". every one else had less than 2" over the last 3 days. plus very very little in the way of severe weather.

The Cross Bx and every road that intersects it was a day from hell with flooding

algae888 wrote:well after looking at reporting stations rainfall totals so far forecast was a bust. most mets had area getting 3-5" of rain. of the 8 stations I looked at only white plains had 3". every one else had less than 2" over the last 3 days. plus very very little in the way of severe weather.

This was yesterday

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/yesterday.html

This was today



And I think it may still need to be updated. 

I didn't think it was a bust. This was my forecast from the other thread:

"Here's what I'm expecting over the course of the next few days: 

Tomorrow morning should feature mainly sunny skies, nth clouds will gradually build with an isolated shower or thunderstorm in the late afternoon into the evening hours. 

Monday will be mainly cloudy with periods of rain as a front rides along the outer periphery of an oncoming trough. The front will move extremely slowly and may not clear pass our area until Tuesday night. Along the front could spark severe thunderstorms. It's very difficult to tell right now how strong these storms may get. Just realize the potential is there due to the unstable state of the atmosphere. 

Tuesday will be like Monday, with clearing expected after 7pm. 

Total rainfall will average between 1-2 inches. However, cases where thunderstorms stall over the area will result in total rainfall amounts (Sunday through Tuesday) to be 2-3+ inches. I have a feeling most of the area will see at least two inches of rain."

Dtone wrote:The Cross Bx and every road that intersects it was a day from hell with flooding

I drove from mt. Vernon to Elmont LI to Astoria queens and back home. left at 8pm took hutch, cross island, GCP and Bruckner and 95 and none of the roads were flooded. hutch had some ponding but not bad. actually made faster time tonight as traffic was very light

As you can see, I never really committed as to how strong these storms may get. If there is one thing about me, I'm still learning about severe weather so I make sure to word my forecasts carefully. I leave most of it up to SPC. But the rainfall forecast was right. Some areas certainly did see 2+ inches (some saw almost 5 inches) where the t-storms set up.

well frank as is the case most of the time your forecast was spot on. I was talking more about accu and nws and local radio. nws had nyc metro getting 2+" of rain just from 2pm today till 2pm tomorrow. most nyc locals had between 1-1.25" half of what was forecast for this afternoon and night. plus jman had posted that models had 3-5" outputs. we got about half of that. again I didn't look at all reporting stations

algae888 wrote:well frank as is the case most of the time your forecast was spot on. I was talking more about accu and nws and local radio. nws had nyc metro getting 2+" of rain just from 2pm today till 2pm tomorrow. most nyc locals had between 1-1.25" half of what was forecast for this afternoon and night. plus jman had posted that models had 3-5" outputs. we got about half of that.

Ohh yea, you did say "Mets" 

My bad. 

Models are not that reliable in the summer months when it comes to thunderstorms. They overestimate coverage. Usually it's much more localized. While placed like you and I saw around 2 inches, my friend in Coltsneck saw 4 inches. It's just one of those things where you have to nowcast and see where the storms set up. That's why I forecast for the whole in general.

Central NJ bullseye for rain

http://water.weather.gov/precip/index.php

3-5 inches

Central jersey seems to be the bullseye for the winter and now the summer

algae888 wrote:

Dtone wrote:The Cross Bx and every road that intersects it was a day from hell with flooding

I drove from mt. Vernon to Elmont LI to Astoria queens and back home. left at 8pm took hutch, cross island, GCP and Bruckner and 95 and none of the roads were flooded. hutch had some ponding but not bad. actually made faster time tonight as traffic was very light

The ripple effect from earlier afternoon closure on cross bx messed everything up.

Hey algae, the report was that NYC had 2 inches in 45 min on the radio and the major deegan was flooded I took a video, stranded car in the flood waters. I imagine overnight we had at least another half inch so 2-3 inches was about right, 3-5 was a bit much but some of the models did show that. Hey can't always be right. CT got clobbered with rain and RI and MA are still in it up north I imagine they may have closer to the high end. Looks like clear sailing for a while now.