October 2014 Obs and Discussions

docstox12 wrote:

sroc4 wrote:

algae888 wrote:so far through 9 days of October we are 2* above normal. with a brief cool down coming this weekend followed by more warmth. this is with a -nao. +pna and a very -ao. plus no coastals. if this was jan. we would be screaming. this leads me to believe that these indicators are not driving our weather right now. so then what is driving the weather for us? any thoughts?

Al I follow JB.  I take the good with the bad.  He has been talking about how the very same teleconnections that bring us cold and snow in the winter will bring us warm anomalies in the fall.  He was seeing this and talking about this for October since at least late August.  He notes that that these same teleconnections, (-AO, +PNA, and -NAO) will in fact cause more warmth in the east and the center of the colder anomalies further west during this time frame, and will shift more to what we are expecting in the colder months cold and stormy anomalies.  The reasoning in part is based on the wavelengths or amplitudes of the ridges and troughs that develop associated with the jet stream across the northern hemisphere.  In the colder months there is much more of a temp gradient therefore when the drivers set up these troughs and ridges they set up with more amplitude; therefore shorter wavelengths changing where the axis of these features are centered. If these teleconnections hold serve like this through the winter trust me we are in for a ride.  The question is will it stay like that.

Excellent, Doc!

Now I can see why the favorable teleconnections for winter would bust out in the warmer autumn.Clear, concise and logical explanation!


43.8 degrees,partly cloudy altocumulus clouds,barometer 30.20 and rising here in Monroe NY HV.Sun is out now.


GO KC in the playoffs!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Can't forget about the MJO as well. It's progged to be in a fairly strong octane 1 over the next 10-14 days before crashing back into the COD. If you recall in winter this octane is usually favorable for cold and stormy in the east however this time of year it will result in warmth and riding into the east. Relatively speaking. This octane also promoted lower pressure in the Caribbean and SE Atlantic. If you look at the end of last nights euro run there is a potent tropical system in and around the Bahamas with a strong hP to the north. I won't say any more about it for now because it's too far to take serious, and we are in the wrong thread, but IMO the tele conns favors something like that in that region.

docstox12 wrote:Hector, that could be right but IMHO, I don't think so.

Oil has been, like most commodities, the victim of a recent uptick in the US Dollar due to Yellen's jawboning higher interest rates.Also, oil is being produced in massive quantities here.Add the growing European and Asian slowdowns in economies, and you have the recipe for falling oil prices.

If the experts are wrong and a brutally cold winter prevails, expect nat gas and oil to get a fundamental boost.If one knew that, you could take long positions in this cheap oil right now and make a killing.

This is where long term weather forecasts and commodity investing go hand in hand.

Doc and everyone on this family board - the meteorological wisdom and knowledge is friggin bar none - learn something new everyday here.

On oil and nat gas - oil ALWAYS falls from after the 4th of July until the late fall/early winter - saw a station last night 2.85 a gallon cash - woo hooo!! Why? the refineries do not have to add ozone additives to the gas for the upcoming cooler/cold season - if you remember the ethanol 10 that was an additive to gasoline back int the 1990's that ticked up gas by .05 to .10 a gallon. That is long gone and the refineries can produce almost 1/3 as much materials - gasoline, kerosene, tar, etc because of this. Also, the lack of tropical cyclones that would shut down or inhibit teh production of black gold in the GOM and surrounding area both land and sea isn't a problem. Lastly,oil output is above the demand so the glut is happening driving down the price of oil as the great Doc pointed out a world wide slow down - I read an article in the Bergen record back in late July by an economic forecaster who stated this fall the market will correct/recession due to a worldwide recession that we will also feel in the 4th quarter and 1st quarter of the fiscal years 2014 and 2015 respectively - oh and who is this guy - the same economist who called the tech bubble burst, the housing market meltdown and collapse of the economy in 2008. - do we not learn!! The fall sucks for the market - Black Friday 2x and housing meltdown d tech burst - yeah all happened in October!

Natural Gas is going through the roof - so if you have it for this winter see if you can lock in a price with your company or one of these third party companies - I locked in for .52 a ccf for 6 months but it took some discussion. Why - well frickin politics what else is new - the pipeline demand is up and the 2 main lines from the gulf of mexico/la and one from the upper Midwest - a new huge pipeline is to be online but not until the spring of 2015 at best which will not help ease the demand - also the regs on natural gas shipping have curbed the ability to transport by rail and ship so this is what we are left with. It will also affect our electrical prices since this is what is used to power our Generation facilities - how do I know - I teach this to my students in my Engineering class and research this all the time oh and I have friends in each field let's say.

So Doc get out or wait till we correct even more and jump in to buy - I am sure their will be stocks to gobble up and shed off later and there you have it on this front. test next week - only kidding!

Mugsy, great insights on oil and gas.You know your stuff, Teacher! Someday we'll sit down together and have a great discussion on commodities, weather and worldwide economic conditions.

I've been selling most of my stocks with profits, raising cash and taking short positions via ETF's right now.Thinking this bull market is topping out here.

And yes, this board is an ongoing tutorial for people like me, following the weather for years but not knowing the technical details.

Right now, 55.4 degrees. sunny with cirro stratus clouds, 30.22 barometer and humidity 58% here in Monroe NY HV.

Rain on the way. Looking at a start time after Midnight tonight and an end time between 11am - 1pm Saturday. The highest rain amounts will be confined to the Jersey shore and southern NJ. .50-1.00 of an inch can be expected.

So Frank is it not smart for me to keep my flag football game at 9am in Bloomfield after looking at the close range models? Thanks.

geigere1 wrote:So Frank is it not smart for me to keep my flag football game at 9am in Bloomfield after looking at the close range models?  Thanks.

Is it a grass or turf field? Either way I don't think conditions would be suitable for a game. Maybe evaluate things at 6am and make a decision then. But I would lean on canceling.

docstox12 wrote:Mugsy, great insights on oil and gas.You know your stuff,  Teacher! Someday we'll sit down together and have a great discussion on commodities, weather and worldwide economic conditions.

I've been selling most of my stocks with profits, raising cash and taking short positions via ETF's right now.Thinking this bull market is topping out here.

And yes, this board is an ongoing tutorial for people like me, following the weather for years but not knowing the technical details.

Right now, 55.4 degrees. sunny with cirro stratus clouds, 30.22 barometer and humidity 58% here in Monroe NY HV.

Hey Doc thank you and there is so much more to discuss about these topics that I could fill up post after post on this.

Anyway, that would be great to finally catch up to you one day and we can sit down and have a discussion along with some of my home made Bailey's and cannolli  (filling) that I make come the cold weather! We'll have to catch up one day.

Bull Market has topped out my man and smart man getting into cash - nothing wrong with taking profits and sitting on a few Grants or Franklin s or even McKinley!!

docstox12 wrote:Mugsy, great insights on oil and gas.You know your stuff,  Teacher! Someday we'll sit down together and have a great discussion on commodities, weather and worldwide economic conditions.

I've been selling most of my stocks with profits, raising cash and taking short positions via ETF's right now.Thinking this bull market is topping out here.

And yes, this board is an ongoing tutorial for people like me, following the weather for years but not knowing the technical details.

Right now, 55.4 degrees. sunny with cirro stratus clouds, 30.22 barometer and humidity 58% here in Monroe NY HV.

I love market talk and money. And yes, as mugs said. The bull market has topped out. As was expected and as we have learned through history that after a few years of higher profits, it will always top out. However, depending on ones age it's a matter of either selling or buying. I know older guys who sell and younger ones just getting into the market that will buy. Buying Ford, Yahoo and GE was a great thing as those profits definitely increased after 2009. Yahoo was bought for $13 lol. I have a client of mine who is in his late 70s maybe early 80s and he told me back in January to look out for October. This month has been rough as he mentioned.

Anyways back to weather. Drizzle has started, Hope I get some time during the afternoon to do the brakes on my car.

Nothing here as of 11:30 the NNJ black hole continues. Had a feeling the models were overdoing the precip just go with the trend like the market down !  

53* and raw outside. 

See what tomorrow brings!

Got up here thoight rain eould be coming down pretty good not raining it rained a little last nightbut thats it

.15 in the bucket. 51* raining lightly. probably end up with .25*+. western edge into ea. pa. should be over by noon.

Regardless of what the tropical system does it looks like that ULL as modeled right now will bring us a few inches of rain and winds could gust 30-50mph with the passage. Of course if the Euro changes its mind next week as alot have said could be very interesting. A lot of time to go on that still in 5 day which soooo much can change especially this year with the models being so bad.

49* and .25" with mod to heavy rain - thank god westwood flag football for my son was cancelled!!

ended up with .39" of rain. I liked the setup with cold HP to our north a stationary front to our south with a wave of LP riding along the front. in winter this would be a nice 3-6" event. hope this set up continues.

0.62".

Isotherm wrote:0.62".

JACKPOT once again Tom - did you come on this board to one up us?!!       Only kidding

.42" in the bucket and a high of 52* - overcast and dreary all day sun just come out - yeahh - off to okterbefeast tomorrow and then a 60th bday party   I may have to take Mon off for my Itralian heritage day!

Al I would love this frickin' pattern if it serves 2-4 months from now - look at what EPAWA posted - put it in the LR thread.

Okay this pattern reminds me of last winter JAN/FEB 13th after that it stunk!!

got down to 43* IMBY. cool clean crisp outside. chomping at the bit for winter to get started!!! winter, football, hockey, and the holidays- pretty soon not going to get much sleep.

I got down to 44. Went to a haunted house last night and it was freezing.

42* this morning - hit some golf balls already - crisp clean morning fall air - getting ready for Oktoberfest at Bear Mtn.

Frank, was the house really haunted or one of those make believe Halloween ones - I may have to start a Halloween thread about this. We can share stories - I have a few of such

amugs wrote:

Isotherm wrote:0.62".

JACKPOT once again Tom - did you come on this board to one up us?!!       Only kidding

.42" in the bucket and a high of 52* - overcast and dreary all day sun just come out - yeahh - off to okterbefeast tomorrow and then a 60th bday party   I may have to take Mon off for my Itralian heritage day!

Al I would love this frickin' pattern if it serves 2-4 months from now - look at what EPAWA posted - put it in the LR thread.

Okay this pattern reminds me of last winter JAN/FEB 13th after that it stunk!!

Damn, my cover's blown, how did you guess?!!

All I know is this weather's so dang boring, I'm dozing off as I type this message. If we see a snooze-fest winter after the past 5-8 months, there's going to be a ton of weenies admitted into Eastern State Penitentiary.

Frank_Wx wrote:I got down to 44. Went to a haunted house last night and it was freezing.

That freezing feeling wasn't from the outside temps...(cue Halloween theme song).

Snap any cool ghost shots?

Since its pretty close to crunch time any chance that Gonzalo still shoots that gap between the ULL and HP? Or is pretty much a done deal OTS, the models seem to think so. So if so what are preliminary thoughts on the 22nd time frame? That on the GFS apears to get help from the tropics and Euro too shows the beginning of the development drawing from the tropics, unless I am wrong. Having those two on board 240 hrs out plus is interesting, tells me this may not be such a long shot and if some of the stronger models are right we could have quite a severe storm.

GFS says we get a good dose of rain as the cut off low MEANDERS towards the NNE from the Midwest - over 1/2 the country is affected by this LP this week!!

amugs wrote:GFS says we get a good dose of rain as the cut off low MEANDERS towards the NNE from the Midwest - over 1/2 the country is affected by this LP this week!!

Wow, what a storm! Too bad this wasn't winter, or this place would be going nuts right now. What is encouraging is our dry pattern has been replaced with a more active pattern, which bodes well for us with winter approaching.