October 2014 Obs and Discussions

Looks like u and me al.are in the jackpot today. Not that I enjoy.the rain when I'm going out.

0.60". Decent rain event here.

Isotherm wrote:0.60". Decent rain event here.

The immediate coast including northeast NJ seems to be benefitting the most right now. This has actually been a pretty solid event, should be over at the expected time of 2-3pm

Yeah definitely better than I expected. Figured I'd be lucky to record 0.50" but I ended up with 0.77". Largest rain event since September 6th.

It came down moderate to heavy at times.

so far .6", with intermittent downpours....YUCK!

Im getting my ass kicked at work all day today Wish I was watching the weather.

It has really been coming down today.

We got a good amount here Ace should have an idea how much. Sun is out now

1.29" of rain here. looks to be over now. tele comm. for the next 7 days are unreal. ao-5 nao -2 and pna +1+. and looking further out all three look to remain in the same state just not as extreme. so do not be surprised to see a nice coastal form in this time frame (next 2 weeks). plus another shot of cold air.

Tom - I can not believe it - the tide so minuscule has changed - I recorded .87" of rain and you had .77" - this is a first - maybe thing swill change for this upcoming winter and we up here in NNJ get smoked instead of skunked -

I just gave myself the KOD - OH POOP!!

63.5 degrees now and sunny - had my sons football game at 10PM today and what a mud bowl - rained steadily and heavy all game long - ZOO - YUCK 100000x

Al here is the chart you are talking about - when was the last time the AO tanked this low - anyone, CP where the hell are you for this man????

mugs what does that mean when that big drop in the AO happens and sorry for not understanding but what does AO mean / stand for? Is this whats possibly going to make for the storm that the GFS has been screaming about and now other models too are catching onto the development in the tropics which appears to be what is going to create the coastal on the 15-17th time frame. And GFS has been pretty consistent on this time frame deviating little each run and moving up in time which is one of the things we CAN look at in such the long range.

skinsfan1177 wrote:We got a good amount here Ace should have an idea how much. Sun is out now

.88 recorded. Ground is pretty saturated from the last couple events.

Ahh ok I am rading about the AO now, I kinda get it, so with the -AO bing so low its a sign of stronger storms wikipedia mentions 2010 Feb when it dropped to its lowest point. At that time we had some huge storms. So iguess this could mean in otherwords that the 16th storm could very well be on the table (although would it be cool enough to be anything but rain?

jmanley32 wrote:Ahh ok I am rading about the AO now, I kinda get it, so with the -AO bing so low its a sign of stronger storms wikipedia mentions 2010 Feb when it dropped to its lowest point.  At that time we had some huge storms.  So iguess this could mean in otherwords that the 16th storm could very well be on the table (although would it be cool enough to be anything but rain?

Yes sir and if we get a strong NAO block it slows and locks them on the coast - if we get that big block over the eastern part of Greenland it can get real serious IMO.

mugs...recorded .70" here...

mugs are we talking Sandy intensity part two? if that block sets up and the GFS holds to how strong that coastal gets? I don't mean the retrograde track Sandy made, I mean severity wise. You said serious, can u clarify what u mean by that? I have things happening around that time and could spell some issues. Hopefully it doesnt come until after Columbus day (I doubt it will push up 3-4 days but u never know I guess). Again IF it happens I know nothing is for sure.

mugs I am going to take your word on the 18z being untrustable because it takes the coastal and shunts it OTS before OBX, hrumph lol. Although another strong system from the west moves through again but thats WAYYYY out almost 384. GFS has been pretty consistent on placement/intensity of carribbean development from run to run through about 240.

Jman dont take every run as verbatim in that time frame. The important things are the tele comm. Models are going to flip flop even loose the storm but as mugs says atmosphere is rip for a big storm in the next two weeks. Not saying it will happen just that probability is higher now.

right al, I know.  Just seein model candy u know, and then seeing it drop or flip flop.  Thats the hard thing about wx, is not knowing.  And having over a week to fully find out, although by midweek I would think we will have a much better idea, and def know whats going to happen Sat. Can u explain briefly what tele communications has to do with the wx?

jman what I understand about the tele comm. Is that it tells us what's going on in the upper atmosphere about 18,000 feet above the earth. The map is the 500mb or 500 vortex. It drives the weather that goes on at the surface and is the best and most reliable Map to make a forecast. so let's say the PNA is positive this will form a ridge on the west coast which in turn should form a trough along the East Coast combine that with a negative nao which slows the atmosphere down thats why its called blocking add in a - AO which causes cold arctic air to flow southward into the u.s and you have all the ingredients for a major storm on the East Coast. that's my limited knowledge on it I hope it helps

Well some of those terms I havent read up on but the final outcomes means possible big storm, thats all I needed to know lol. So will def be a interesting next two weeks or so. probabbly will be lots to track, wether or not they hit who knows but I will say the rain this morning was surprising it was a gully washer for a few hrs.

[quote="algae888"]jman what I understand about the tele comm. Is that it tells us what's going on in the upper atmosphere about 18,000 feet above the earth. The map is the 500mb or 500 vortex. It drives the weather that goes on at the surface and is the best and most reliable Map to make a forecast. so let's say the PNA is positive this will form a ridge on the west coast which in turn should form a trough along the East Coast combine that with a negative nao which slows the atmosphere down thats why its called blocking add in a - AO which causes cold arctic air to flow southward into the u.s and you have all the ingredients for a major storm on the East Coast. that's my limited knowledge on it I hope it helps[/quot

This was a nice explanation for a tele-dummy like myself.I'm starting to learn this and see how they do all connect.Let's hope all the ingredients come together this winter for lots of tracking fun and some major snowfalls to enjoy.

Leaves coming down all over the place here in the HV.Ordered an amateur wireless weather station I can set up here in my new place in Monroe NY to enter the CP-SNOW temperature wars of winter 2014-2015.

Today we probably won't get out of the 60's. Monday and Tuesday may also struggle to reach 70, but I think we do on Tuesday. Then we get into then mid 70's by midweek with some more rain showers. Nothing too eventful. The cooler weather will feel nice, especially at night.

I usually keep my bathroom window open to keep air flowing and lower the humidity from the shower and I just went it to use the bathroom in the middle of the night and had to shut it because it was so cold in there. Weather station reading 39 here at 6am, winter she comes...

I had 42 here at 6am