Re: Possible November 1st Coastal Storm Thread 1

by **Frank_Wx** Wed Oct 29, 2014 12:05 am

jmanley32 wrote:Frank and mets, sorry I missed whole thing, but fatherly duties called, I read back a little so we have improvements or about the same?

Big improvements, in my opinion.

by **aiannone** Wed Oct 29, 2014 12:07 am

Big improvements indeed. Correct me if im wrong Frank, but if it did not dig as far south we would have had a better soln on our hands.

by **Frank_Wx** Wed Oct 29, 2014 12:12 am

Mets2695 wrote:Big improvements indeed. Correct me if im wrong Frank, but if it did not dig as far south we would have had a better soln on our hands.

Definitely. That was a potent looking vort embedded within the mean trough. Put it this way, this vort has gone from closing off over northern NY state to North Carolina. Take the mean, and you have something like the ECM Ensembles.

by **jmanley32** Wed Oct 29, 2014 12:16 am

What did the Euro ensemble show for us impact wise?

by **Frank_Wx** Wed Oct 29, 2014 12:16 am

jmanley32 wrote:What did the Euro ensemble show for us impact wise?

Probably a 2-4 inch snowfall

by **jmanley32** Wed Oct 29, 2014 12:18 am

Even down to the coast? And high winds? That would be fun heh, the storm yes the trees may not have too much fun though. in 2011 I only got like 3-5 inches and they came down everywhere without wind.

by **jmanley32** Wed Oct 29, 2014 12:18 am

Well not exactly the coast I am just enough inland that many times if its raining in the city and I head home its snowing in Yonkers.

by **jmanley32** Wed Oct 29, 2014 12:22 am

Looks like overall the lowest the models have been on the wind for the area is gusts to 45-50mph regardless of placement, if it comes west and deepens near us that could go up. Def cannot wait till we are within 48 hr timeframe.

by **Frank_Wx** Wed Oct 29, 2014 12:25 am

00z GGEM is rolling. Will post when run is finished.

by **Frank_Wx** Wed Oct 29, 2014 12:34 am

Someone who gets the GGEM early says it gets a good amount of precip into the area even though it is warm. Also develops a norlun. It looks like the vort closed off further north than the GFS. I'm not concerned about temp profiles this far out.

by **aiannone** Wed Oct 29, 2014 12:41 am

I'm mobile now. Frank remember I'm in Lyndonville, Vt (NERN VT) so as I'm lurking through here when I am unable to post would it be possible for you to include impacts for my area as well?

by **jmanley32** Wed Oct 29, 2014 12:44 am

Yes the precip is over an inch Frank, if its cold thats bigtime snow! Winds are insane 50kts sustained just offshore. WOWza. Even a rain event would be much worse than last week. But its the GGEM.

by **jmanley32** Wed Oct 29, 2014 12:48 am

CMC precip, if that ends up being frozen oh god.

Possible November 1st Coastal Storm Thread 1 - Page 3 Cmc_pr10

by **Frank_Wx** Wed Oct 29, 2014 12:49 am

Mets2695 wrote:I'm mobile now. Frank remember I'm in Lyndonville, Vt (NERN VT) so as I'm lurking through here when I am unable to post would it be possible for you to include impacts for my area as well?

Sure Alex. GGEM shows a few snow showers for you. Rain to possible snow showers for the coast.

by **Frank_Wx** Wed Oct 29, 2014 12:50 am

GGEM closed off the vort then it opened up again. Sloppy phase

by **jmanley32** Wed Oct 29, 2014 12:50 am

Is the closing what is going to help it stay cold?

by **jmanley32** Wed Oct 29, 2014 12:52 am

Looks very impressive to me but year it breaks up after that but winds up again. Def a heavy hitter even if no snow, a good amount of rain and high winds.

Possible November 1st Coastal Storm Thread 1 - Page 3 Cmc_8510

Possible November 1st Coastal Storm Thread 1 - Page 3 Cmc_8510

by colosa4 Wed Oct 29, 2014 12:57 am

Always exciting for the first potential snow fall for the season, and by the looks of it that is if the storm goes the right way you guys are in the running for an accumulating event. First event of the year and it could work out where my hometown gets more then my college.

by **Frank_Wx** Wed Oct 29, 2014 1:00 am

colosa4 wrote:Always exciting for the first potential snow fall for the season, and by the looks of it that is if the storm goes the right way you guys are in the running for an accumulating event. First event of the year and it could work out where my hometown gets more then my college.

Where you go to school?

by **Frank_Wx** Wed Oct 29, 2014 1:01 am

00z GEFS kinda look like OP, maybe a tad north with the vort and get more precip into the area. Actually a blend between GFS OP and GGEM OP

by **jmanley32** Wed Oct 29, 2014 1:01 am

I am out guys eagerly await euro in the am.

by **jmanley32** Wed Oct 29, 2014 1:02 am

Where do you get the GEFS so quickly>? Wxbell is so slow.

by colosa4 Wed Oct 29, 2014 1:05 am

Where you go to school?[/quote]

University at Buffalo

by **jmanley32** Wed Oct 29, 2014 5:52 am

Early morning to you all, the Euro did not complete the phase soon enough to do anything for our area. It actually tries to come together it looks like then partially breaks off into two lows, place pretty far south get snow, main gets well over a foot and we get some light rain if that. Wind i still on the table although not as strong.

Possible November 1st Coastal Storm Thread 1 - Page 3 Euro_910

Possible November 1st Coastal Storm Thread 1 - Page 3 Euro_910

by **jmanley32** Wed Oct 29, 2014 5:52 am

by **jmanley32** Wed Oct 29, 2014 5:53 am

Possible November 1st Coastal Storm Thread 1 - Page 3 Euro_122

In case you can't read it thi succa gets down to 985mb!

by **skinsfan1177** Wed Oct 29, 2014 5:54 am

So jman Gfs showed a great phase but dug to for south and euro shows nothing like it maybe something in between

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