November 17th Storm Threat

Just measured-2.0" on the money.

00z Euro was just a strung out mess for Monday. Rain for all

Actually euro trended colder for the interior northeast, but no one is really from there (central PA) on this forum, haha. Northeast PA in rb and Snow Man territory have a good shot again.

rb924119 wrote:Pike County, PA, elevation ~1800ft. If you want an exact location-follow 84 and literally directly between Scranton and Port Jervis is where I'm at lol

rb, know that area well, pass by on 84 on the way to Lake Wallenpaupack or down to Pecks Pond.Been going to Wallenpaupack nearly 40 years.Beautiful country out there.

I'm 5 miles from 'Paupack Lake!! lol Yeah it is, I absolutely love it back here....so much natural beauty, especially when it snows lmao

Bah cold rain.. Hate this setup when were in the cold rain sector.

And yeah, Frank, EURO OP definitely trended colder and the ensembles look like they are trending that way as well. Look at the 850s spaghetti.......many more members have the 850mb 0C line going through some part of northwestern NJ than the mean and the OP for sure. The only reason the mean is as far northwest as it is, is because of a handful of far-western outliers. 06Z GFS Ensemble 850s are the same as the EURO. Things could be getting quite interesting for those of us in the far north and west.

NjWeatherGuy wrote:Bah cold rain.. Hate this setup when were in the cold rain sector.

Couldn't agree more. It's my least favorite weather. Maybe we'll see some backend snow...gonna get reallll chilly 'round here come Wed.

12z GFS coming in with a northern Interior event

Bah, no interest to me if no shot in the dark to get anything here. I have to be running around city Monday its going to suck.

Old GFS OP is warm yet still gets far zones white. The new GFS CRUSHES the interior with snow. Would not be surprised to see snowfall numbers 10+, but it's only out to 72 so far lol

Damn luck guys, maybe some miracle will happen and the PV will move so tempos get closer to the area. From what I am seeing and hearing though doesn't seem that way.

Well that shows quite a bit more than the Operational 12z GFS lol

EURO OP and ensembles definitely came in warmer than 00z but there is still really large spread in the location of the R/S. The difference here is that the 12z has more interaction with the northern surface low and opens up earlier, allowing the cold air to be scoured out a little more. The 00z kept more a separate southern stream piece longer which allowed a stronger CAD event in the northwestern zones. What does look hopeful is that the ensembles have increased to the snow totals, so the likelihood of at least a moderate event is growing, we just don't know exactly where yet lmao

12z has a slightly sharper trough and is slightly faster than 00z at H5.

Not interested, cold rain, next. Pattern following will get very cold as we're in the trough this storm drags through then moderation after that, pattern looks meh after that, not really a bad SE ridge and GLC setup like we can typically get into this time of year but a transient fall like pattern with no real established setup. I've seen a storm pop up in the long range around the Thanksgiving week that may have potential but it's too early to give too much thought atm.

Burlington now was 70% of snow Monday and Monday night here in Lyndonville, VT. They are expecting about 4-6" with 6"+ possible for elevations above 1000ft. We are at about 1,030ft here at the college so hopefully we can tap in on those higher amounts!

0z GFS is rolling!

Looks good for the Northern Interior parts of New England. Our first snowstorm seems to be looming here at Lyndon. I guessed Monday to give us our first inch here at Lyndon in the first inch contest so i may win $70 lol! Anywho, here are the frames. Nice CAD over northern and central VT. Models seem to have converged on a Low track over LI, into RI, and then scooting ENE off the coast from there.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014111500/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_eus.htmlCONGRATS ALEX!!

amugs wrote:http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014111500/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_eus.htmlCONGRATS ALEX!!

Yupp looks like our first advisory level snow or dare i say Warning criteria snow looks to be on the way. Models are converging on this track it seems which is our "perfect scenario track" here at Lyndon!

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014111500/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_eus.html

You get 6" easy from this - enjoy!!

Do they have an accumulation map mugs? Wxbell hasnt loaded them yet.

GFS PARA - AGREES!

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014111500/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_eus.html

Here you go - plastered!


http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014111500/gfsp_asnow_eus.html