11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible

jmanley32 wrote:That's the spirit sroc. I have a lower chance and u sir even lower. Li not best spot to be maybe we should move north a bit lol. Here's still hoping.

This wasnt a hoping statement. I am 100% realistic about the low probabilities of the coastal plain S and E of I-95 (esp my area) not being in the heaviest snows or no snow at all due to warm air invading the mid layers. IMO if you are N and W of I-95 you are in a GOOOOD spot right now. There is still plenty that needs to be ironed out; however, the timing, exact track and intensity to name a few. Intensification 4-6hrs earlier or later, shifts of 50-75miles west or east and/or intensity variations of 3-5mb could have HUGE implications to who receives what and when. Although we are converging on a final soln we have all seen solns deviate by more than 50-75miles and 3-5mb 3days out before. Like it has been mentioned before it is still November and the SST are still in the 50's so although I just like the next snow weenie would LOVE some of the white gold, but am realistic given the set up. This however is only going to get continue to set up the rest of the winter. Keep the snow pack coming.

18z GEFS are west, almost like EURO.

sroc4 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:That's the spirit sroc. I have a lower chance and u sir even lower. Li not best spot to be maybe we should move north a bit lol. Here's still hoping.

This wasnt a hoping statement.  I am 100% realistic about the low probabilities of the coastal plain S and E of I-95 (esp my area) not being in the heaviest snows or no snow at all due to warm air invading the mid layers.  IMO if you are N and W of I-95 you are in a GOOOOD spot right now.  There is still plenty that needs to be ironed out; however, the timing, exact track and intensity to name a few.  Intensification 4-6hrs earlier or later, shifts of 50-75miles west or east and/or intensity variations of 3-5mb could have HUGE implications to who receives what and when.  Although we are converging on a final soln we have all seen solns deviate by more than 50-75miles and 3-5mb 3days out before.  Like it has been mentioned before it is still November and the SST are still in the 50's so although I just like the next snow weenie would LOVE some of the white gold, but am realistic given the set up.  This however is only going to get continue to set up the rest of the winter.  Keep the snow pack coming.  

Exactly, like I said it could shift further west and screw anyone short of the mountains and I80, it could stay where it is which leaves NW of 95 in pretty good shape, or it could back to the east a bit to give the big cities and coast a shot.

Frank u mean rain to snow for brooklyn? U said snow to rain earlier in someone's question.

jmanley32 wrote:Frank u mean rain to snow for brooklyn? U said snow to rain earlier in someone's question.

No, I mean snow to rain. This may start as snow according to the soundings. It could end as snow, but depends how much precip is left.

Well sroc it's real dice for me because im like basically just west of 95 barely it's always a nail biter for me but many times I have seen snow here and rain in nyc or south bronx where I work. Amazing how much a 10 mile difference can make. Frank they issued wind advisory for li queens etc. Do u think winds couled be issue here late tonight into tomorrow too. Local forecast calling for 35 to as high as 50 gusts but no advisory as of now. I mentioned that about tomorrow's storm remember frank. I'm curious too.

Oh i didn't realize it was now go start as snow.

Ok so for my area here cnj coast expecting a cold rain and how much wind we dealing with

Upton nws says opposite

Skins nothing set in stone. As for wind looks to be mostly on east side li on euro had gusts past 75mph!

Imo being in the jackpot right now is not good. Models seem to always shift the backend area around up until 48 hours from the storm

aiannone wrote:Imo being in the jackpot right now is not good. Models seem to always shift the backend area around up until 48 hours from the storm

Good point.This is way far out yet and as you said, models can shift around.Last year everything shifted S and E as time went on.When the 10 PM chat goes on tomorrow night, we will be less than 48 hours to go and should have a better idea where this storm track will be.Very exciting to be tracking this in November.More like a late Dec-early Jan scenario.Keep em' coming!

mako460 wrote:Just remember last year, everything went S and E in the last 48 hours.

That was true mid February to mid April last year.

Before that the trend was north and west in the 3 days before events.

This time as I read earlier their really isn't anything to push the storm south no PV

Inaccurateweather now predicting 6-10 inches for Orange County on Wednesday.

As i said this morning I'm not buying any accumulation predictions for anywhere until tomorrow afternoons 12z's. To many things change 3+ days before events especially with a major storm coming through tomorrow AM.

Exactly, CP.Got to hold your horses at this point, way too soon IMHO.If that 6 to 10 holds on Tuesday AM, then I get a great HV November welcome.

Talking about welcomes, glad your back to enjoy this storm!

skinsfan1177 wrote:This time as I read earlier their really isn't anything to push the storm south no PV

I think Frank mentioned upper jet steering in this matter as well.

docstox12 wrote:

skinsfan1177 wrote:This time as I read earlier their really isn't anything to push the storm south no PV

I think Frank mentioned upper jet steering in this matter as well.

But the jet just like the LP its intensity and location is modeled differently depending on the model you look at.

sroc4 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:That's the spirit sroc. I have a lower chance and u sir even lower. Li not best spot to be maybe we should move north a bit lol. Here's still hoping.

This wasnt a hoping statement.  I am 100% realistic about the low probabilities of the coastal plain S and E of I-95 (esp my area) not being in the heaviest snows or no snow at all due to warm air invading the mid layers.  IMO if you are N and W of I-95 you are in a GOOOOD spot right now.  There is still plenty that needs to be ironed out; however, the timing, exact track and intensity to name a few.  Intensification 4-6hrs earlier or later, shifts of 50-75miles west or east and/or intensity variations of 3-5mb could have HUGE implications to who receives what and when.  Although we are converging on a final soln we have all seen solns deviate by more than 50-75miles and 3-5mb 3days out before.  Like it has been mentioned before it is still November and the SST are still in the 50's so although I just like the next snow weenie would LOVE some of the white gold, but am realistic given the set up.  This however is only going to get continue to set up the rest of the winter.  Keep the snow pack coming.  

In case you don't believe me here is Upton with a great write up IMO:

POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR A COASTAL STORM WITH SNOW...RAIN
AND WIND TO IMPACT THE REGION WED/WED NIGHT...BUT SPREAD REMAINS
MODERATE IN TERMS OF EXACT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM.

FORECAST SENSITIVITY BASED ON SBU CSTAR ANALYSIS FOR THIS SYSTEM
LIES IN DEVELOPMENT OF TROUGH OVER THE EPAC OVER THE NEXT 48
HRS...AND RESULTANT DOWNSTREAM STRENGTH OF WEST COAST RIDGING AND
ULTIMATELY STRENGTH OF EAST COAST TROUGHING FOR MIDWEEK.
OPERATIONAL/ENSEMBLE MODEL ANALYSIS REVEAL MID/UPPER LEVEL MODEL
FIELDS IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS INITIALLY WITH
PHASING NORTHERN STREAM AND PAC ENERGY DIVING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF
DEEP CENTRAL US TROUGHING...WITH THIS ENERGY THEN SWINGING UP THE
COAST WED AND INTERACTING WITH YET ANOTHER PIECE OF NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING THROUGH THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. IT IS
WITH THIS SECOND INTERACTION...AFTER 48 HRS...THAT MODELS DIVERGE
ENOUGH TO AFFECT STRENGTH AND ORIENTATION OF THE PHASED SHORTWAVE
ENERGIES AS THEY PIVOT THROUGH THE NE WED NIGHT/EARLY THU. THIS IS
RESULTING IN MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE COASTAL LOW...BUT
MAINLY TRACK DIFFERENCES. THE RANGE OF OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS ON
TRACK OF COASTAL LOW ARE...THE 12Z ECMWF CONTINUING TO TREND WEST
AND TRACKING ACROSS LI WED NIGHT...TO THE 12Z NAM/CMC TRENDING WEST
AND PROJECTING WELL EAST OF BENCHMARK...AND 12Z GFS CONSISTENTLY
NEAR THE 40/70 LAT/LON.

WITH THIS SPREAD HAVE CONTINUED TO PLAY A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD TRACK
BETWEEN CMC/GEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS...WHICH WOULD TRACK LOW
PRESSURE NEAR TO JUST INSIDE THE 40/70 LAT/LON BENCHMARK WED NIGHT.
WITH ONLY A MARGINALLY COLD AIRMASS TO START...THIS TRACK WOULD
BRING MAINLY RAIN TO LI/SE CT...RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR NYC/NJ METRO AND
SW CT...AND MAINLY SNOW WELL N&W OF NYC...CHANGING TO ALL SNOW WED
NIGHT FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE REGION AS THE LOW DEEPENS AND TRACK
NORTH. THIS MESHES FAIRLY WELL WITH WPC...WITH A LOW PROBABILITY OF
SEEING WARNING LEVEL SNOW RELEGATED TO INTERIOR PORTIONS OF NE
NJ...LOWER HUDSON VALLEY..AND SW CT...AND ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW
POSSIBLE INTO NYC METRO AND COASTAL SW CT SUN NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN
THESE VALUES IS LOW TO MODERATE AT THIS POINT BASED ON ABOVE
MENTIONED SPREAD. PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW WITH THIS DAY 4 EVENT FOR A
DETERMINISTIC STORM TOTAL SNOW FORECAST.

docstox12 wrote:Exactly, CP.Got to hold your horses at this point, way too soon IMHO.If that 6 to 10 holds on Tuesday AM, then I get a great HV November welcome.

Talking about welcomes, glad your back to enjoy this storm!

If it were to verify you guys hail to the   = ME!!

All I am seeing is accumulating snows n&w w of the city - being selfish here the way it should be sorry coastal plain folks.

Next. 24 hours of runs will hopefully nail this. The vort up the Great Lakes will have tremendous impact on this storm - models having a tough time with all this energy  - looks to be the case for us going forward IMO.

Scott great write on the last page. 

No snow maps for me until 12 z runs tomorrow - unless they show me getting paste bomb!!

Thank you Upton- but mt holly was aggressive last night that I posted.

Smart of them to do a blend and declare a middle of the road at this point.

Channel 4 & 7 just tweeted precip maps for Wed, both with Manhattan on the line of snow and mix. Rain/mix line looks to be eastern nassau co.

amugs wrote:

docstox12 wrote:Exactly, CP.Got to hold your horses at this point, way too soon IMHO.If that 6 to 10 holds on Tuesday AM, then I get a great HV November welcome.

Talking about welcomes, glad your back to enjoy this storm!

If it were to verify you guys hail to the   = ME!!

All I am seeing is accumulating snows n&w w of the city - being selfish here the way it should be sorry coastal plain folks.

Next. 24 hours of runs will hopefully nail this. The vort up the Great Lakes will have tremendous impact on this storm - models having a tough time with all this energy  - looks to be the case for us going forward IMO.

Scott great write on the last page. 

No snow maps for me until 12 z runs tomorrow - unless they show me getting paste bomb!!

Do your thing ,KING!

Sroc u notice the kinda bad typo in nws u just posted?

I lied. The rain line on their maps is actual thru central Suffolk.

Soul where is that map looked on twitter didn't find.