11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible

Im not sure the strength of storm plays a huge factor. Like Rb has been preaching there appears to be strong frontogenesis with this system that sets up based on the J/S

jman we are the dividing line

i'm guessing we want a track like gfs and strength of euro

Can anybody get the accumulation map for the Canadian? Thanks!!!

Just curious here. What would it take to pull the storm maybe 50-75 miles west? I hate pulling you guys into an all rain event, but I would selfishly like to jump from 1-3 into the 3-6 zone.

Not much, slightly more digging of the trough/more amp'd southern stream, stronger system than modeled. All of which are highly possible, all of which are also still uncertain lmao

12z GEFS

Has anybody checked out the latest UKMET?!!! Talk about going AWOL!!! Delivers a 14-18" snow for the interior with 8-12" for the I-95 corridor. It's usually a great model, but as much as I want to believe it, I have to see what happens lmao

How cold AI? (I'm in smithtown like you!)

What I DO like to see in it, though, is that it is CLEARLY depicting that heavy snowband, regardless of where it is. That's a HUGE player in this

Here comes the EURO...........

UKMET, by the way, had 850's warm all the way into eastern PA. EURO coming in now.

UKMET 850's

Hour 51

Trending toward GFS?

Good point, Frank. Euro looks about the same, just slightly faster

This looks better for NYC. I need soundings,

CNJ gets the junk again sigh... I'm moving! Lol

If it is more snow at the coast, verbatim Euro snow maos on wxbell bring about 10 inches to southern WC and into city bit less.

Things cooled off quite a bit on this Euro run. Good news for the city though I still don't think we'll see more than an inch or two without the factors Frank and others have described that are conducive to a coastal snowfall.

EURO has 1.2" QPF IMBY, was worried when I saw watches up far north but seeing the latest models TV mets seem to be over estimating climo again and putting the heavy snow axis too far NW compared to where the real cold and precip will be.. Theyre gonna bust again...

I hope you are right NJ, bring it on down this way too : )

SoulSingMG wrote:Things cooled off quite a bit on this Euro run. Good news for the city though I still don't think we'll see more than an inch or two without the factors Frank and others have described that are conducive to a coastal snowfall.

It did come in decently cool. 700mb goes to 2c in some places and the surface is warm at the start before crashing. The euros precip shield on the onset is heavy and would cool the surface for interior areas verbatim as shown.

jmanley32 wrote:I hope you are right NJ, bring it on down this way too : )

I can see the immediate coast and coastal plain having issues but the TV mets seem to say only the high elevations will accumulate when we learned Oct 2011 all we need is a cold air mass and strong enough precip rates.. That low wasnt even deep it was above 1000mb and I still got 6" of snow here in October.

Raynos video:

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-video/video-snowstorm-to-cause-widespread-thanksgiving-travel-delays/2430839568001