11/26 Coastal Storm Part 2: Forecast & Snow Map

NAM is starting to catch on but still lookes kind of weird and LR NAMish to me, IMO by tonight 0z and tomorrow 12z we'll have a very good idea.

Tom, i think you can agree with the statement that the trend for the coast has been good today.

Completed 18z NAM

aiannone wrote:Tom, i think you can agree with the statement that the trend for the coast has been good today.

Overall my thinking has always been heaviest snow further SE than what most are showing but not by much, SLP didnt trend east on the NAM it just trended stronger and colder actually looks a bit west overall but handling precip weirdly. IMO heaviest snow falls just to the NW of the cities, map coming later.

aiannone wrote:Completed 18z NAM

That doesnt even make sense given precip amounts where its showing 8-10" are less than . 75 according to it.

They are a little off. Just nice to see it's colder.

Hey First time on here just registered and logged on. Been a fan for some time. Live in Syosset in Northwest Nassau county and have been obsessed with weather. Especially snow since i was a little kid. Now my wife and kids think I'm Crazy staying up all night by the fire watching snow and checking reports. I have to say I find it hard to believe we'll get 3 to 5 here with the warm temps into tomorrow night.

Updated forecast for me

Wednesday Rain before noon, then rain and snow between noon and 3pm, then snow after 3pm. Temperature rising to near 41 by 8am, then falling to around 34 during the remainder of the day. Wind chill values between 25 and 35. Northeast wind 7 to 16 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.

Wednesday Night Snow, mainly before midnight. Low around 32. North wind 7 to 16 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

syosnow94 wrote:Hey First time on here just registered and logged on.  Been a fan for some time.  Live in Syosset in Northwest Nassau county and have been obsessed with weather.  Especially snow since i was a little kid.  Now my wife and kids think I'm Crazy staying up all night by the fire watching snow and checking reports.  I have to say I find it hard to believe we'll get 3 to 5 here with the warm temps into tomorrow night.

Welcome, glad to have you here.

Even though we normally get more here and in northern suffolk!! I'm fired up though. Look forward to many, many more forums this year. IMO we need heavy precip to get the temps down for evaporational cooling Otherwise just back and forth snow/rain with little accum. My parents up in Ulster County will do real well. Fresh snow will help my pops on his deer hunting in the backyard. As Loyd Lindsey Young on Channel 9 back in the day used to say. HEAVY HEAVY snow on the way for someone!!! Hopefully Me.

checked upton a few seconds ago they made some changes. i think at least from what i've seen a few others post today

Still no update from upton. They are really thinking lol

Well cool upton upped to 4 to 6 for me and al. Nice hope stays there or goes up. Alex Since They Changedl Snow Maps Will Probably Have A Update soon.

Franks map seems to line up pretty well with Mt. Hollys update, when Im home later and off mobile will make my own map. My thinking is a tick to the SE of Franks but dont think that means jackpot to the coast or even all the way to I-95 and the cities.

Winter storm watches should b extended south into the new 4 to 6 areas.

They removed hwo for coastal ct city and southern wc. Which makes no sense so I assume they are probably get ready to post wsw

I'm in the 10 to 14 zone on Holly's new map.Glad to see the folks S and E will share some of the love here.Hey, strengthening and a bit more East and those totals could bump up.I hear the machinery in the engine room of the storm mode building here kicking in for tonight!!!

Has anybody thought about the ocean having an affect on the coastal areas. Being that it is early for snow and the ocean temps are warmer then say in Jan. or Feb. won't this make it difficult for the coastal areas to cool down enough to support snow.

Still no update from Upton lol

Wow lucky doc. If I can get half that I'll b happy. Of course I'd love to be in thick of it but a lot needs to trend south right now nws has me 4 to 6. Not bad. 6 to 8 very close.

tigernumba1 wrote:Has anybody thought about the ocean having an affect on the coastal areas.  Being that it is early for snow and the ocean temps are warmer then say in Jan. or Feb. won't this make it difficult for the coastal areas to cool down enough to support snow.

Pg 35 of the thread before this one.

Yea Doc Give me a kick from Monroe of your 10- 14 to me lol

Still no update from Upton. They are torn lol

WSW raised for my county.

Yeah but sometimes dynamic cooling wins over ocean temps. we have seen it here before post sandy for example

GFS looks a tick east again

Oldtimer, I would if I could but I think there is a possibility of this trending a bit more east and strengthening so your totals will bump up also.We'll see in the chat tonight what's on Frank and the other mets here minds.