Re: 11/26 Coastal Storm Part 2: Forecast & Snow Map

by **SoulSingMG** Tue Nov 25, 2014 9:47 am

aiannone wrote:12z Hi-RES 4km NAM

Hmm, that doesn't look great to me for the city. Anxious for 12z GFS.

by **Snow88** Tue Nov 25, 2014 9:48 am

I could see NYC getting accumulating snow while the totals keep on going down as you head east.

by **aiannone** Tue Nov 25, 2014 9:49 am

Mt Holly: 930 AM ESTF: FIRST WARNING ISSUANCE NOW AS STERLING UPGRADES AND
MOVES FASTER AS WELL. WE WONT CHANGE ANY SNOW TOTAL GRIDS AT THIS
TIME. WE CONTINUE MORE UNCERTAINTY SE OF THE WARNING BUT NAM PROFILE
IS COLDER AT PHL WHICH COULD MEAN 3 TO 6 INCHES THERE EVEN DURING
THE DAY. POWER OUTAGES A CONCERN I95.

by **jmanley32** Tue Nov 25, 2014 9:57 am

Oh great power outages I know that's mt. Holly but I'm in area could get heavy wet snow too. I best finish my we or tonight.

by **aiannone** Tue Nov 25, 2014 9:59 am

Nice to see they are factoring in NAM temps because that would be best case scenario for the coast.

by **Snow88** Tue Nov 25, 2014 10:18 am

RGEM is great just ( I mean just ) to the west of NYC. Coastal areas of NYC see rain/mix with eastern LI all rain but wow, this is close. A little colder and NYC will see mostly snow. Close call for the NYC area.

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Nov 25, 2014 10:18 am

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/2014112512/I_nw_r1_EST_2014112512_035.png

12z RGEM crushes NYC and points West. NYC literally oz the rain/snow line. Coastal NJ and LI should see some snow, but not much. Final forecast later on

_________________

by **amugs** Tue Nov 25, 2014 10:19 am

RGEM - destroys us N&W of NYC - Westchester on the battle line

11/26 Coastal Storm Part 2: Forecast & Snow Map - Page 11 Post-25-0-94324700-1416928124

R/S line moving east

11/26 Coastal Storm Part 2: Forecast & Snow Map - Page 11 LJhgGyn

Now just about every one in the game!!

11/26 Coastal Storm Part 2: Forecast & Snow Map - Page 11 I_nw_r1_EST_2014112512_035

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Nov 25, 2014 10:20 am

RJB8525 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:12z NAM has the rain/snow line just east of NYC

700 mb temps

Looks like Staten Island will be a battle zone

Weather Chan seems to be sticking with 5-8 for the city and Sam Champions keeps saying it all depends on when the cold air gets sucked in

I agree with him

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Nov 25, 2014 10:21 am

@mugs- except Ryan (QuietAce), he's probably in school right now ready to drop kick the next person who confronts him.

by **jmanley32** Tue Nov 25, 2014 10:23 am

Wow frank that looks impressive will you post the totals map later when it comes out? That looks easily a foot in many areas. Do you see power outages being a possible issue in southern WC, some trees (few though) have leaves but I know Mt. Holly mentioned even heavy wet snow on branches can lead to outages. The reason I ask is because I cannot chance not having power tomorrow with my paper due and will have to finish by tomorrow morning if you feel it could be a issue.

by **amugs** Tue Nov 25, 2014 10:23 am

Frank_Wx wrote:@mugs- except Ryan (QuietAce), he's probably in school right now ready to drop kick the next person who confronts him.

BAHHAHAHAHAH - I think I pissed meself with this - oh too funny - hey he and skins like I said in the chat room that they cashed in last year - frig that now it's our turn - the pattern is changing - hopefully!

by **jmanley32** Tue Nov 25, 2014 10:25 am

LOL Frank, no one believes me, I have given up on letting my friend and family know the possibility of the implications this could have. Hey I tried. NY'ers (not anyone on here) are resilliant (nice way of saying dumb) and look what happened with Sandy (not saying this is sandy) just saying people do not think storms are a big deal up here.

by **amugs** Tue Nov 25, 2014 10:27 am

Okay here you go Ace !!
11/26 Coastal Storm Part 2: Forecast & Snow Map - Page 11 I_nw_r1_EST_2014112512_037

by **aiannone** Tue Nov 25, 2014 10:29 am

How accurate is the RGEM?

by **skinsfan1177** Tue Nov 25, 2014 10:30 am

Im not giving up yet I still believe we can get in on this Ace lol. And if not its just the beginning for another great winter for us.

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Nov 25, 2014 10:30 am

jmanley32 wrote:LOL Frank, no one believes me, I have given up on letting my friend and family know the possibility of the implications this could have. Hey I tried. NY'ers (not anyone on here) are resilliant (nice way of saying dumb) and look what happened with Sandy (not saying this is sandy) just saying people do not think storms are a big deal up here.

3-6" use to be a big deal. Now after all these big storms people spit at these types of systems. Except the news. They like to blow it up into a circus

by **aiannone** Tue Nov 25, 2014 10:32 am

GFS rolling now. Looks slightly stronger.

by **aiannone** Tue Nov 25, 2014 10:33 am

warm though

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Nov 25, 2014 10:34 am

GFS crushes NYC and west. Looks like RGEM. I think we have an agreement....

by **aiannone** Tue Nov 25, 2014 10:38 am

Frank_Wx wrote:GFS crushes NYC and west. Looks like RGEM. I think we have an agreement....

According to wxbell maps. West and Central LI gets in on it too.

by Aiosamoney21 Tue Nov 25, 2014 10:39 am

I love it keep the good times rolling lol

by **SoulSingMG** Tue Nov 25, 2014 10:40 am

Frank_Wx wrote:GFS crushes NYC and west. Looks like RGEM. I think we have an agreement....

700 mb frz line right around eastern Queens, great for Manhattan!

by **jmanley32** Tue Nov 25, 2014 10:41 am

Frank its possible we get more than 3-6 though right? My area has a watch for 4-8 and NWS map has 6-8. Wxbell snow map is not great for coast, 4-5 inches, i wouldnt call that crushing.

by **Quietace** Tue Nov 25, 2014 10:43 am

Frank_Wx wrote:@mugs- except Ryan (QuietAce), he's probably in school right now ready to drop kick the next person who confronts him.

This is true

by **Snow88** Tue Nov 25, 2014 10:45 am

Soundings for the coast on the GFS ( NYC ) has it a wet snow bomb with temps in the low to mid 30s. 700 mb temp looks alright. This can go either way.

by **aiannone** Tue Nov 25, 2014 10:47 am

can anyone get a sounding for ISP?

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