Possible Nor'easter Dec. 9th-10th

Looks like 12z NAM may be coming slightly colder as well.

Yep, it did. H7 closed low is located over eastern NJ versus western NJ at 00z. Surface low doesn't really reflect that in it's location, but that will result a huge difference in the low and mid-level temperature profiles.

rb924119 wrote:Looks like 12z NAM may be coming slightly colder as well.

Oh boy here we go - maps??

12z nam colder and stronger, am really concerned the winds here on coast and LI could top 60mph. Hold on will post euro snow map. Wow it serious snows through 144 hrs, and another low develops and pushes from east to W into cape code and CT then backs out what a nutty run.

Ok Mugs, the first link is going to be the 00z NAM for 00z Wednesday and the second will be the same time but on the latest 12z. Note the eastward shift in location of the H7 closed low for period.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/WRF_0z/wrfloop.html

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/WRF_12z/wrfloop.html

Ok, I tried the links out and it looks like you'll have to manually set the time to 00z Wednesday on both :/ sorry. I would post the pics but every time I try I don't ever get them to come up on here lmao

rb924119 wrote:Ok Mugs, the first link is going to be the 00z NAM for 00z Wednesday and the second will be the same time but on the latest 12z. Note the eastward shift in location of the H7 closed low for period.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/WRF_0z/wrfloop.html

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/WRF_12z/wrfloop.html

WOW that is a big difference and the EURO and UKMET shifted a tick east as well from what I am reading from last night too.

What a complex and really difficult forecast. Thanks for posting and I see exactly what you are referring to that H& is big n terms of the r/s line Lets hope the trend continues.

Here is the NAM 700Mb at hour 42 - I do not have the 0Z map to compare but the link is above to see that rb posted - good work rb.

If this were to verify - EPA - Rb, SNOW, and NWNJ FTW as well as areas just North and West of Philly cut off looks like Western Bergen County.

I can't say that I'd mind if it did lmao I have been in the battle ground region for that warm nose for days. I think I've gotten a few gray hairs from trying to figure out which way I should forecast-warmer and wetter, or colder and whiter bahahaha if it shifts another 15-25 miles east I will be able to rest a wholeee lot easier lmfao

Thanks Mugs. I'm just trying to find hope like the rest of us lmao I think after 12z runs today, I'm just going to give up on the models and nowcast it lol Models only help you when you're ahead of an event, not during it aha Besides, watching them go back and forth can't be good for my health the way this storm is going lmfao

rb924119 wrote:I can't say that I'd mind if it did lmao I have been in the battle ground region for that warm nose for days. I think I've gotten a few gray hairs from trying to figure out which way I should forecast-warmer and wetter, or colder and whiter bahahaha if it shifts another 15-25 miles east I will be able to rest a wholeee lot easier lmfao

Other model 12Z runs today are big!!
Now is this going to be the case of models showing a west projection and then shifting back east as the storm approaches?? They showed a track over the benchmark - EURO for a number of runs - going to be interesting and frustrating but hopefully surprising to say the least!!

It's the NAM of course

9Z SREFS - wow - it will be totally ripping about this time tomorrow !!

Yeah, it's going to be very interesting, but now that we are getting within the 48 hour window, I start looking more at the shorter range guidance and leave the crutches of the medium range models. The short range models are designed for this time frame, so what they start showing must be taken into consideration (in my opinion), no matter how awful they seem to be (or are) in longer range predictions. As much as I hate to say it, I will be very concerned if the SREFs hold their ground in the extremely warm solution, especially as we head through the 21z/03z runs overnight. I will start really watching the UKMET as well, since that is a pretty accurate model, particularly within 48 hours. However, I do like what I'm seeing in general in the medium range guidance, particularly the EURO, which may be trending toward a GFS track slightly further east, even though I do not agree with how it (GFS) develops the precip shield.

man mugs that looks like a all out hurricane, concerned winds may be even higher when they issue warnings here, which I believe they will. I don't think we have a shot at snow except maybe on the backside and that's a big maybe. Its 22 right now, damnit why couldn't this be today. Epic blizzard if it was with 2-3 feet of snow!

Not sure if you all realized a new thread was started last night. My bad.