Possible Nor'easter Dec. 9th-10th

Just as a follow-up, the images I reference all follow the body of the paper. Enjoy!!

National Weather Service doesn't even mention snow in its disco for the entire area with this system Mount Holly mentions it for Northeast Pennsylvania time to move on.

NAM FWIW 84 hrs

NAM winds, 25-30kt+ sustained as system moves in, wow.

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Frank and RB

Thanks for the quick and detailed responses.

Rb, I would love to see your write up on that storm. Other than the January 1996 storm where we received 33 inches, that was my second favorite of all time.

We received 35 inches of snow here in eastern Orange County from that storm and the ratios weren't great like in 96, plus up until the day before I thought we'd be lucky to get 4-8 out of it, with the rain/snow line so close.

Also, CP, there had been a foot on the ground before the 2010 storm which left nearly four feet on the level.The howling winds made a nine foot snowdrift on my GF's deck where she lived at Mansion Ridge at the time.Street signs were buried with the plowing.At Mahwah they said there was 20 inches but it was so wet and compacted, I didn't see more than 8 or 9 on my property.Though you say the ratio's weren't that good in Orange County for that storm, in Mahwah they were terrible.

even on the back end of the system they have rain showers for Orange County on Wednesday

NAM rainfall, barely started damn!

algae888 wrote:National Weather Service doesn't even mention snow in its disco for the entire area with this system Mount Holly mentions it for Northeast Pennsylvania time to move on.

Yep, this is torching, looks like a little mix precip to rain in the HV. Don't mind it at all as I have to be in the Fort Lee NJ area mon-weds PM and I would have missed a snowstorm in the HV. Encouraging to be getting a ton of moisture with these two storms but discouraging no cold air.Big storms trending west.

Wow, GFS actually gives us snow, but its well east still.

Yeah just saw radar it is overperforming feel bad for dunzoo. Frank what do u think winds will b like tomorrow here? I hear sustained up to 20 to 30 surprised no advisory. Do u think in senario 1 we could see warning level winds for a time euro showed 12 hrs of gusts 50 plus depending on where strongest winds setup and overall intensity?

GUYS HERE ME OUT YET AGAIN

Here we are at event #8 and I've seen barely a coating of white. I know it's only early December but I remember seeing long range forecasts put out about an epic winter and a few others about a lot of storms but mainly mixing here around 95. No science here but after awhile you gotta begin to wonder what the freak is going on. All this hype and constant misses is getting to me BAD!!!

At some point somethings gotta break our way no? It's been pouring and my son keeps saying "man we'd have like a foot of snow here if it was cold. IMO it gets really cold for 2 months coming up but then we have no storms This sucks.

syosnow94 wrote:GUYS HERE ME OUT YET AGAIN

Here we are at event #8 and I've seen barely a coating of white.  I know it's only early December but I remember seeing long range forecasts put out about an epic winter and a few others about a lot of storms but mainly mixing here around 95.  No science here but after awhile you gotta begin to wonder what the freak is going on.  All this hype and constant misses is getting to me BAD!!!

At some point somethings gotta break our way no?  It's been pouring and my son keeps saying "man we'd have like a foot of snow here if it was cold.  IMO it gets really cold for 2 months coming up but then we have no storms  This sucks.

I totally understand your frustration with all the rain. But we have to roll with the punches. I agree with Frank that later into January is when we will get our fair share. Be patient, I think it will come and there is really no way to predict the long range to a precise science as can be noted by the upcoming storm 3 days away and we still do not have a full consensus. So try to remain optimistic and hopefully we will all be pleasently surprised.

Since I do not have a rain guage this site looks pretty cool to give an idea of precip that has fallen.  I have had over a inch which seems right, overperformed which probably, like Frank said will mean this weeks storm will be more amped, I mean look at the plum of moisture still coming for hours.  I know it sucks its rain but my local met said some may see some flakes near the end : )

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge2/RFC_Precip/

Upton discussion is not nice for snow lovers but is def going to cause problems, they are discounting GFS and going with EC/NAM! IMO to say wind advisory level will not be met sustained is possibly not true, but they have to be conservative. Also said in earlier part that tomorrow gusts will be 40-45 especially NYC and coast, possible gusts to 50 but not warrent advisory at this time.

THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE NWP THAT A COASTAL STORM WILL
IMPACT THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER
THERE ARE MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK AND FORWARD SPEED OF THE
SYSTEM. THIS WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON TO HOW QUICKLY THE DIGGING
UPPER TROUGH CUTS OFF. DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING ALSO DEVELOPS AND THE
AMPLIFICATION OF THIS WILL ALSO CONTROL THE TRACK AND FORWARD
SPEED OF THE SFC LOW.

THE GFS IS UP TO ITS OLD TRICKS BEING TOO FAST WITH THE HIGH
DEPARTING AND NOT HOLDING IN THE COLD AIR LONG ENOUGH AS WELL AS
BARRELING THE SFC LOW UP THE EAST COAST. THIS SOLN HAS BEEN
DISCOUNTED AND HAVE GONE MORE WITH A BLEND OF THE EC AND NAM
THROUGH 84 HOURS (00Z WED). THE EC HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY
INDICATING THE LOW MEANDERING OVER THE AREA WED INTO THU WITH THE
UPPER LOW MEANDERING OHD UNTIL A SPOKE OF VORTICITY ROUNDING THE
BASE OT IT RESULTS IN SECONDARY SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT OFFSHORE WHICH
LIFTS INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WHILE STRENGTHENING. THIS CAUSES
THE PRIMARY LOW TO WEAKEN AND BECOME ABSORBED IN THE LARGE AREA OF
LOW PRES OVER THE NE.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS INCLUDE HEAVY RAIN...STRONG WINDS...COASTAL
FLOODING AND WITH COLD TEMPERATURES INLAND TO START...FREEZING
RAIN/DZ. SOUNDINGS INDICATE LOW LEVELS MOISTEN FIRST AND IT TAKES
A WHILE FOR THE COLUMN TO SATURATE SO DZ (FZDZ INLAND) WILL LIKELY
START AS LOW LEVEL LIFT COMMENCES IN THE LATE AFTN/EVE. DRY
MIDLEVELS WILL KEEP ANY ICE CRYSTALS THAT FORM ALOFT FROM REACHING
THE GROUND AND BY THE TIME THE ENTIRE COLUMN IS SATURATED MOST
PLACES ARE ABOVE FREEZING. THE EXCEPTION BEING PORTIONS OF THE
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND POSSIBLY INTERIOR SW CT AND NE NJ.
THEREFORE...A FEW HOURS OF FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE HERE. HAVE
FORECASTED AROUND 1/10 OF AN INCH OF ICE AS A RESULT BEFORE IT
CHANGES OVER TO PLAIN RAIN TUE MORNING WITH STRONG WAA.

IF THE EC`S SOLN DOES VERIFY...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR 1.25
INCH PWATS RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL. WPC HAS PLACED
MUCH OF THE TRI-STATE AREA IN AN EXCESSIVE RAIN OUTLOOK.
ADDITIONALLY...IF THE HEAVY RAIN COINCIDES WITH HIGH TIDE...THE
SITUATION WILL BE EXACERBATED. SEE HYDRO AND COASTAL FLOODING
SECTIONS BELOW FOR MORE INFO ON QPF AMOUNTS AND IMPACTS.

WIND ADVSY IS POSSIBLE IF WE CAN MIX HIGHER WINDS DOWN BUT IT`S
TOUGH ON A SLY FLOW UNLESS IT GETS FAIRLY WARM AT THE SFC. BEST
CHC LOOKS LIKE EASTERN COASTAL ZONES...BUT TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN
THE SCENARIO OVERALL TO DETERMINE THIS NOW. LOW LOOKS TOO WEAK TO
REACH IT ON SUSTAINED WINDS.

if it happens the 10th it would be the second year in a row I get snow on my birthday.

Hector the except for far northern area this is going to be a strong wind and heavy rain event, unless there are big changes soon.

Right now im not too worried about wind, no strong HP making that pressure gradient that pumps the winds, right now its mostly just a rain issue here and much further n and w snow.

for u probably not, but I am right near the coast where it will be a issue.

Ground saturation is also high already and going to be even moreso with the storm so uprooted trees is a possibility. SREF members have sustained winds ranging from 30-50mph FWIW along coast and maybe 15 miles inland

As of 7pm, and been raining hard since then, area of 40dbz rain coming in, I think some places could top 2 inches.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=OKX&product=PNS&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

Frank_Wx wrote:One thing to note is todays system is really doing a number on our area. Many places are well over 1.00 inch of rain and may have been raining for 24 hours straight going back to last night. Remember what i said in my blog about this storm, which is if it proves to be stronger than modeled it could buckle the flow a bit and help slow down the southern stream energy asslciated with the Tuesday storm. This leads me to believe the Euro solution, or scenario #1 from my blog, may hold greater weight than scenario 2. Euro is pretty tucked to the coast though, and the overall flow remains progressive, so a track just inside the BM is where my confidence lies at the moment.

frank looks like you may be right about this. 00z nam shows this first storm stronger at hr 33 and is allowing the n/s s/w to dig further south causing surface Low to form well east of 18z.


ooz nam


18z


surface 00z lets see how it plays out

18z surface

Al Nam is strong. Has winds sustained 30 mph plus and rain but not quite as much as shown in past runs. Nam terrible as we know past 48 hrs

jmanley32 wrote:Al Nam is strong. Has winds sustained 30 mph plus and rain but not quite as much as shown in past runs. Nam terrible as we know past 48 hrs

wait nam is only out to hour 51 how do you know 00z nam is strong?

it is east of 18z so far

No I meant 18 z sorry.