Re: December 20th-21st Storm Threat

by **NjWeatherGuy** Mon Dec 15, 2014 4:32 pm

Im going to hold off a bit getting excited about this one. I dont know, im going to wait for it to get under to get under 100 hours to get involved.

by **amugs** Mon Dec 15, 2014 4:57 pm

Check this out

December 20th-21st Storm Threat - Page 2 Post-910-0-23179900-1418676079

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Dec 15, 2014 5:50 pm

Lee likes a cold storm for the weekend, but how much depends on exact track

by elkiehound Mon Dec 15, 2014 5:55 pm

Yep, Lee also mentioned a Xmas eve potential storm. Which will be bigger Dec 20th or Dec 24th ?

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Dec 15, 2014 6:16 pm

elkiehound wrote:Yep, Lee also mentioned a Xmas eve potential storm. Which will be bigger Dec 20th or Dec 24th ?

Hard to say right now, but learning toward Christmas Eve. However, that storm is dependent on the 20th storm.

by Guest Mon Dec 15, 2014 6:38 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:
elkiehound wrote:Yep, Lee also mentioned a Xmas eve potential storm. Which will be bigger Dec 20th or Dec 24th ?

Hard to say right now, but learning toward Christmas Eve. However, that storm is dependent on the 20th storm.

You guys have to stop!! Please!! I can't get off my damn computer. Every 30 minutes I'm checking back in to see what might happen on a storm 6 days away and now you mention Christmas Eve potential!! I'm a teacher. I have papers to grade. I have to help my wife prep and cook for the holidays. I have my own kids' practices but I can't focus. All I do is keep checking this forum. I'm like a crack addict. It's unhealthy.

That being said I actually like the trend south and east 6 days out. The trend is for the models to correct back N/W 2 to 3 days out. It's gonna happen. It has to. All that disappointment the last month can finally be put to rest.

by **jmanley32** Mon Dec 15, 2014 8:52 pm

LOLOLOLOLOL, Syo, I hear ya my wife curses me out for bing on the weather all the time but for the past week or so I have really been focusing on my finals wich are due Wed, and happy to say nearing completion. A little more tonight and finish up tomorrow evening, thank god then I can TRY to be all over the weather lol (of course things get priority like my child.

by **amugs** Mon Dec 15, 2014 9:23 pm

syosnow94 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:
elkiehound wrote:Yep, Lee also mentioned a Xmas eve potential storm. Which will be bigger Dec 20th or Dec 24th ?

Hard to say right now, but learning toward Christmas Eve. However, that storm is dependent on the 20th storm.

You guys have to stop!! Please!! I can't get off my damn computer. Every 30 minutes I'm checking back in to see what might happen on a storm 6 days away and now you mention Christmas Eve potential!! I'm a teacher. I have papers to grade. I have to help my wife prep and cook for the holidays. I have my own kids' practices but I can't focus. All I do is keep checking this forum. I'm like a crack addict. It's unhealthy.

That being said I actually like the trend south and east 6 days out. The trend is for the models to correct back N/W 2 to 3 days out. It's gonna happen. It has to. All that disappointment the last month can finally be put to rest.

Snow 94 - I am too a teacher and I can definitely relate but I do my work in between the euro model runs - GFS is crap and I know it is like crack, an 8 ball, snuff and all that bad stuff!

I have an email blog/blast of over 100 people (B&G supervisor, athletic director and even the superintendent has checked in with me on a few occasions and now wants personal emails not part of my group) that I forecast for and OMG they wait with baited breathe on my reports and are hooked like Sugar Ray Richardson from the NBA in the late 70'a and 80's (got the name sugar a reason!!) Hang in there my man and it will come - I BELIEVE

Like the USA Soccer chant

I Believe

I believe that it will

I believe that it will.....snow

I believe that it will snow - 3x say this and jump up bounce

and down and there you have it!!

by Guest Mon Dec 15, 2014 10:07 pm

amugs wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:
elkiehound wrote:Yep, Lee also mentioned a Xmas eve potential storm. Which will be bigger Dec 20th or Dec 24th ?

Hard to say right now, but learning toward Christmas Eve. However, that storm is dependent on the 20th storm.

You guys have to stop!! Please!! I can't get off my damn computer. Every 30 minutes I'm checking back in to see what might happen on a storm 6 days away and now you mention Christmas Eve potential!! I'm a teacher. I have papers to grade. I have to help my wife prep and cook for the holidays. I have my own kids' practices but I can't focus. All I do is keep checking this forum. I'm like a crack addict. It's unhealthy.

That being said I actually like the trend south and east 6 days out. The trend is for the models to correct back N/W 2 to 3 days out. It's gonna happen. It has to. All that disappointment the last month can finally be put to rest.

Snow 94 - I am too a teacher and I can definitely relate but I do my work in between the euro model runs - GFS is crap and I know it is like crack, an 8 ball, snuff and all that bad stuff!

I have an email blog/blast of over 100 people (B&G supervisor, athletic director and even the superintendent has checked in with me on a few occasions and now wants personal emails not part of my group) that I forecast for and OMG they wait with baited breathe on my reports and are hooked like Sugar Ray Richardson from the NBA in the late 70'a and 80's (got the name sugar a reason!!) Hang in there my man and it will come - I BELIEVE

Like the USA Soccer chant

I Believe

I believe that it will

I believe that it will.....snow

I believe that it will snow - 3x say this and jump up and down and there you have it!!

Funny amugs. My principal and transportation head are all over me too all winter about the weather. As far as the chant goes i coached HS Varsity soccer for 20 years. I know that chant well.

by Guest Mon Dec 15, 2014 10:08 pm

I replied incorrectly again sorry.

Funny amugs. My principal and transportation head are all over me too all winter about the weather. As far as the chant goes i coached HS Varsity soccer for 20 years. I know that chant well.

by **aiannone** Mon Dec 15, 2014 10:33 pm

HEY GUYS! Been busy working on finals. I'll peak in periodically tomorrow and Wednesday as I know things are getting interesting this weekend. My last final is Wednesday and I will be back home Thursday and ready to track and enjoy my whole month off! Talk to you all soon!

by **rb924119** Mon Dec 15, 2014 10:36 pm

It's all good, man!! GOOD LUCK!!!

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Dec 15, 2014 10:38 pm

00z GFS is rolling

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Dec 15, 2014 10:49 pm

Through 66, there is more digging with the southern vort in the SW CONUS

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Dec 15, 2014 10:55 pm

Do not think the GFS is going to show anything meaningful here. Everything looks sheared out. I am more interested in what the upgraded GFS says.

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Dec 15, 2014 10:59 pm

Through 81 on Para GFS, the southern stream is more potent than regular GFS and there is more interaction with the northern stream

by **jmanley32** Mon Dec 15, 2014 10:59 pm

Ehhh, hey Frank why even bother with the GFS, so many others are off of it even I am. Just came from a 9 hour day at work and 4 hours at the library, cannot wait till 7:50pm Wednesday, over a month off from school! I so hope this weekend becomes a beast, looks like it has the potential def, Euro ensembles had some very strong stamps, but as you said thing still to work out and lots of time to do it.

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Dec 15, 2014 11:02 pm

jmanley32 wrote:Ehhh, hey Frank why even bother with the GFS, so many others are off of it even I am. Just came from a 9 hour day at work and 4 hours at the library, cannot wait till 7:50pm Wednesday, over a month off from school! I so hope this weekend becomes a beast, looks like it has the potential def, Euro ensembles had some very strong stamps, but as you said thing still to work out and lots of time to do it.

Yea, I think it is just a habit of mine to always use it. I forgot how awful it is. I'll stick with new GFS

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Dec 15, 2014 11:06 pm

The one thing with the Para, if you compare it to the EURO, is it has the 50-50 further north and east

by **jmanley32** Mon Dec 15, 2014 11:09 pm

Is that a good or a bad thing if we want this to work out? And I kinda meant both GFS models but hey, you can look at whatever u want and I certainly can't read these things like u.

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Dec 15, 2014 11:11 pm

Ridge collapsed on Para GFS

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Dec 15, 2014 11:12 pm

jmanley32 wrote:Is that a good or a bad thing if we want this to work out? And I kinda meant both GFS models but hey, you can look at whatever u want and I certainly can't read these things like u.

50-50 further north and east is bad. Want to stay in southeast Canada

Para GFS not going to show what it did at 18z

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Dec 15, 2014 11:15 pm

Some light snow, but it is suppressed.

by **jmanley32** Mon Dec 15, 2014 11:37 pm

CMC made a big move at 12z lets see what it does, and Euro will have to wait till the morning for me. Maybe come end of the week if we are seeing a big storm i will stay up for it.

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Dec 15, 2014 11:50 pm

00z CMC looks like 12z CMC

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Dec 16, 2014 1:31 am

Euro lost the storm mainly because it flattened the ridge out west. That's a very important feature.

by **SoulSingMG** Tue Dec 16, 2014 1:50 am

Frank_Wx wrote:Euro lost the storm mainly because it flattened the ridge out west. That's a very important feature.

Eeeek. I'm sad. Well we are still far out, hope it changes. But the euro is pretty consistent usually, no?

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