December 20th-21st Storm Threat

Hey Syosnow,

Longtime lurker here from the 7online days.
I totally understand your frustration and laughed at your comment because it's pretty true. The one word you always hear on these forums is "patience."

So, forget about patience because if you're like me, you probably get pissed off every time a "potential" storm shows up on the models and gets talked about for 10 days and does little or nothing (9 out of 10 times at least)

We all want the super monster storm of the century but they just don't happen here all that much. However,  I think that's what makes tracking here so fun. If we got these blizzards or whatever kind of  storms you prefer all the time, they wouldn't be all that exciting. They wouldn't be epic masterpieces which we all pray for. They would be routine and my friend, nothing routine maintains our excitement for very long.
I look forward to experiencing a Macdaddyzilla of all zillas with you all in the near future but until then, we will all be praying for the big one together and hopefully learning more about the fascinating world of weather in the process.

Ok my speech is over lol I'll go back to reading all your In formative posts. Thanks for all you do!( Frank, Tom, sroc and the rest. It's a pleasure to follow this forum.

Manny

Something to keep in mind everyone - the energy doesn't come on shore until Wed night then we get full sampling at the 00Z or the 12Z I would suggest since the energy will be all in and in a better data sampling region so let's have patience to see what happens by then - models seem to do this to storms in this medium range (lose them and or make them weaker only to have them return to their previous modelling)

We have seen this so many times that within 84 hours we get changes - some good, some not to good.

We shall see.

Great speech Manny, haha. 

Anyway...the ensembles are still showing a storm along the coast. This threat is not over. It's all up to the western ridge. If we can time what happens downstream correctly before the ridge collapses we can get a storm. Keep in mind it's still pretty early.

Mannyjaffe wrote:Hey Syosnow,

Longtime lurker here from the 7online days.
I totally understand your frustration and laughed at your comment because it's pretty true. The one word you always hear on these forums is "patience."

So, forget about patience because if you're like me, you probably get pissed off every time a "potential" storm shows up on the models and gets talked about for 10 days and does little or nothing (9 out of 10 times at least)

We all want the super monster storm of the century but they just don't happen here all that much. However,  I think that's what makes tracking here so fun. If we got these blizzards or whatever kind of  storms you prefer all the time, they wouldn't be all that exciting. They wouldn't be epic masterpieces which we all pray for. They would be routine and my friend, nothing routine maintains our excitement for very long.
I look forward to experiencing a Macdaddyzilla of all zillas with you all in the near future but until then, we will all be praying for the big one together and hopefully learning more about the fascinating world of weather in the process.

Ok my speech is over lol I'll go back to reading all your In formative posts. Thanks for all you do!( Frank, Tom, sroc and the rest. It's a pleasure to follow this forum.

Manny

The monster storms don't show up anywhere very often no matter where you live.

I've lived in very cold places where 6 inch snowfalls are their blizzards, high winds, cold temperatures but ground visibility near zero from blowing snow causing the blizzard conditions.

We've had a good run of monster storms the last decade, several storms have seen 30 plus inches in parts of our area during that time but they'll always be the exception no matter where you live, unless that happens to be the Sierra Nevada or the snow belt of NY.

If you're wondering what suddenly is killing our western ridge, it is the pacific jet stream. At 250 mb level, there is a 170kt jet roaring into the west coast just completely tarnishing the ridge and keeping the flow progressive all the way toward the east coast. The southern stream is getting sheered.

We have to time this possible storm by getting the northern and southern stream interaction in before the PAC jet comes into the west coast

Possible? Yes. But I'll be honest the odds of a storm have taken a hit since models started showing this PAC jet.

if euro comes in with a non event today then we owe the gfs an apology and should give it some props. todays cmc basically shows very little. gfs never had this storm from the start while euro has hyped it. it seems from mid feb. until now what ever model is showing a non event for our area 3+ days out is the one we should consider most.

if you remember last march snowstorm  that never happened the euro and gfs had us getting big snows up to 3 days out while cmc was adamant in storm passing well south of us. cmc was correct and other models followed shortly there after. their has been very little consistency with models in regards to snow fall for our area since then. always one model is totally different than the other models and the one that shows a miss has been correct overwhelmingly. just my thoughts on this trend. however I do believe we will have a great winter. just have to be patient.

Unless temps plan on dropping I don't see this weekend storm happening. Looks to actually start on Sunday and even then looks like it will be rain.

Euro already better than 00z

HectorO wrote:Unless temps plan on dropping I don't see this weekend storm happening. Looks to actually start on Sunday and even then looks like it will be rain.

Temps wont need to start falling until Sat into Sunday.

sroc4 wrote:

HectorO wrote:Unless temps plan on dropping I don't see this weekend storm happening. Looks to actually start on Sunday and even then looks like it will be rain.

Temps wont need to start falling until Sat into Sunday.  

If the two pieces phase cold shouldn't be too much of a concern. Imm coast maybe rain to snow

Even if this does not turn into a big storm, I can still see how it is a minor event for some folks given the H5 energy coming over our area.

sroc4 wrote:Euro already better than 00z

I agree. the 50-50 low is much stronger and the pac enregy weaker. the trough is neg at hr 96 however it looks warm.


12z today


yesterdays 12z

Probably some coatings to an inch or 2 per EURO

With the positioning of the energy at H5 concentrated over PA and NJ the surface map doesn't seem to jive. I would expect the center of the surface Low to be further N and east towards the BM with this H5 look. But instead the surface Low is centered off the NC coast. What do you think about that Frank??

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Yea Doc I can see how the surface low should be a tad further north, but I think the strong block to the north is one of the reasons why it develops further south. Over time, I can see this trending a little wetter (like most of the storms have this season). Give this threat until Thursday

Frank_Wx wrote:Even if this does not turn into a big storm, I can still see how it is a minor event for some folks given the H5 energy coming over our area.

Hey Frank. I'm more than happy with minor events. I'll take a bunch of 2 to 4 events. Think I even said something like that to my LI buddy out in Wading River a week or so again. Yeah the big ones are what we all want but I'll take a few inches any day.

Good step by the euro though not big but a good step in the RIGHT direction - still plenty of time and like I said in a post at 10:40AM - the energy does not get fully sampled onshore until WED night at best 00z so the 6Z and more so 12z euro runs are big to see improvements IMO.

Great work Doc and Frank - grading Engineering tests - so not much to see on models this afternoon. Ensembles still showing a storm or did they back off this afternoon. I know not like yesterday but even if we had 1/3 or better half showing a minor to decent event then I think we may be in good shape.

syosnow94 wrote:

Yeah the big ones are what we all want but I'll take a few inches any day.  

That's what she said!

gigs68 wrote:

syosnow94 wrote:

Yeah the big ones are what we all want but I'll take a few inches any day.  

That's what she said!

Haha!

Frank_Wx wrote:

gigs68 wrote:

syosnow94 wrote:

Yeah the big ones are what we all want but I'll take a few inches any day.  

That's what she said!

Haha!

Sorry, Couldn't resist. It was just too easy.

gigs68 wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:

gigs68 wrote:

syosnow94 wrote:

Yeah the big ones are what we all want but I'll take a few inches any day.  

That's what she said!

Haha!

Sorry, Couldn't resist.  It was just too easy.

LMAO

amugs wrote:Good step by the euro though not big but a good step in the RIGHT direction - still plenty of time and like I said in a post at 10:40AM - the energy does not get fully sampled onshore until WED night at best 00z so the 6Z and more so 12z euro runs are big to see improvements IMO.

Great work Doc and Frank - grading Engineering tests - so not much to see on models this afternoon. Ensembles still showing a storm or did they back off this afternoon. I know not like yesterday but even if we had 1/3 or better half showing a minor to decent event then I think we may be in good shape.

The CMC Ensembles still show a strong coastal storm. Curious to see what euro ensembles say

Frank, Mugs, myself et al. have all been saying have to wait until all the energy is sampled better. Euro still came back from what is was showing at 00z.

Steve Dimartino says the same thing:
"The 12Z models continue to come out and continue to have the same problem, a poor lack of sampling. The GFS is all strained out at 500 MB with a poor representation of the disturbances over the Pacific this afternoon. The ECMWF is not much better although the far southeast storm track is now gone.

The overall theme this afternoon is that we need to wait another 24 hours before these models can be used with any confidence."

gigs68 wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:

gigs68 wrote:

syosnow94 wrote:

Yeah the big ones are what we all want but I'll take a few inches any day.  

That's what she said!

Haha!

Sorry, Couldn't resist.  It was just too easy.

I actually thought to myself while typing "should I put this in writing" Next time I'll add a disclaimer.

syosnow94 wrote:

gigs68 wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:

gigs68 wrote:

syosnow94 wrote:

Yeah the big ones are what we all want but I'll take a few inches any day.  

That's what she said!

Haha!

Sorry, Couldn't resist.  It was just too easy.

I actually thought to myself while typing "should I put this in writing"  Next time I'll add a disclaimer.

I was just about to type the same post you beat me to it! At least we kindly tussle with one another on this board. Over at American WX where I also post, there"s been a lot of anger issues going on resulting in some bans. Man, we need a snowstorm in the worse way!

The 12z Euro Ens are now weaker and pretty ugly at H5 with a raging Pac. jet killing the ridge out west.

Lets see how things look by Thursday, but trends have not been good