December 29th-30th Potential Overrunning event

Here we go again. See Ya!!

Say what you want about this event but we are going to watch still.  Esp for a few inches.  If and only If the energy coming out of the STJ is more robust than modeled.  There is a very robust moisture fetch setting up S and west of Mexico being drawn up by the trough that is digging in the western conus right now. This is the energy that will lead to this potential.  Look at the last few frames and you will see it getting organized and drawn up where it will cross mexico into the GOM. Odds are the majority of this passes to the south, but dont sleep on it just yet.  
I cant get the loop to work in the post so here is the link to the loop.
http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SAT_NHEM/animwjap.html

The threat is not dead, but the differences from model run to model run gives me agita

Frank_Wx wrote:The threat is not dead, but the differences from model run to model run gives me agita

Thats just the truth Frank. The Gods honest truth. Do I believe that surprise snow WILL actually pan out...not really. But with the chaos theory in full effect with these dang models, and with the energy from the STJ in poor sampling area over the subtropics S and W of Mexico, and with current satellite observations showing a healthy batch of STJ convection firing up and beginning to lift towards Mexico and the GOM I am going to continue to post about it until I feel 100% confident it is no longer a threat. (deep sigh)

12 para shows snow showers for our area on 29th, a little heavier in SNJ but do not think it would stick.

12z Cmc

Looks like 1-2 inches

It's been the main story the last month or so, but the 12Z EURO ensembles from today really backed off on the snow for NYC next week that the 0Z EURO ensembles had and with this pattern who knows if we will get any good snowstorms this winter. I know it's late December but I'm still waiting. The day before the storm Thanksgiving week I purchased winter boots thinking I would need them a lot this winter. They have yet to come out of the box...

So some members purchased a snow blower, Mike purchased boots, Janet got her new weather station...who is to blame for this junx? Certainly not little ol' me

Hug a real model not a weather model,and Frank, get rid of those annoying birds. Just throwing that out there fwiw.

Frank_Wx wrote:So some members purchased a snow blower, Mike purchased boots, Janet got her new weather station...who is to blame for this junx? Certainly not little ol' me

I still did not fix mine. Somebody is responsible. Someone will pay.

Frank_Wx wrote:So some members purchased a snow blower, Mike purchased boots, Janet got her new weather station...who is to blame for this junx? Certainly not little ol' me

Oh Im sure its me...

Looks like the models are starting to improve on the 2nd wave. Nice to see.

Snow88 wrote:Looks like the models are starting to improve on the 2nd wave. Nice to see.

The 00z para and ggem were both flurries with a warm surface. There's still major improvement needed if you're looking for meaningful snow.

0z Ukie for the 2nd wave


Not bad at all

GEFS look interesting

Euro has nothing

There is a reason why the models are showing different solutions to the 29th storm (2nd wave). It all comes down to how they handle the H5 energy. Notice how on the GFS, EURO, and CMC the energy is modeled differently in terms of location, intensity, and angle. The model that has the best handle or understanding of the general pattern will be the one to come out on top. The CMC is quite amazing in the sense of how everything looks sharper and the energy is angled from SW to NE.

Just one thing to note.  Euro shows us nothing for the 29th-30th because it has the flattest soln which shears out the STJ energy and prevents any moisture from reaching far enough north to make a difference; however I would just like to point out a few observations.  
Here is the current water vapor (WV) image and loop showing the actual current conditions as of 7am this morning.  Take notice of a few things.  1) there is a deep tropical moisture connection (yellow arrows)  2) pay particular attention to the trough in the west.  The trough def appears deeper and further off the SW coast/Baha; it also appears a tad sharper sharper, and the trough axis is slight less positive and def further west than where last nights 00z Euro has for this same time frame.
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Now I am not saying that this will have large impacts on our area for better or worse yet, but I am saying if the Euro is off with its forecast at hr 6 when compared to actual observations then its error only increases at its run continues.  With other model guidance still bringing the precip closer to our area it leaves a small window for change over the next 24-48hrs potentially for the better.  That is all carry on.

That makes sense sroc, lets see what happens not much time left something best change todays 12z or by latest tomorrows 12z. Otherwise I think we are probably locked in on a non-situation. I feel that way now but what u say makes total sense. How the models can be off only 6 hrs before the actual time show something different makes me wonder why these models cannot be better. I mean we almost have a cure for some serious diseases, and we can't even get a computer model to give us a accurate forcast 6 hours ahead.

12z NAM is a solid 1-3 CNJ South
This is not a bad look. Surface temps are solid too(30-32).

12z para caved to euro 

Nothing

Now lets see if the Euro caves to the Para. The way these models behave it wouldnt surprise me at all

And now with the CMC in.......(deep breath in through the nose and.....sigh)

sroc4 wrote:And now with the CMC in.......(deep breath in through the nose and.....sigh)

Nada -what a frickin shame too warm



then to our south

amugs wrote:

sroc4 wrote:And now with the CMC in.......(deep breath in through the nose and.....sigh)

Nada -what a frickin shame too warm

Yeah Mugs the 28th is when the front moves through. I never really expected anything but the liquid precip during this time frame.  And it be light at that.  But once the cold air moves through a second wave of energy was supposed to come up along the stalled front, but is unfort being surppressed by the cold arctic HP building in.  So it looks like the 28th is too warm, and the 29th-30th is too cold (suppression depression)  We need the baby bear...jjjjjust right.  Unfort baby bear is grounded and cant come out and play.  Look at the 12z NAM.  Its still close, but unfort prob no cigar.  

If Euro shows nothing like I bet it does, closing this thread.