December 29th-30th Potential Overrunning event

GFS is way south compared to the 18z GFS run for Sunday lol. GFS has a different solution every time lol

Snow88 wrote:GFS is way south compared to the 18z GFS run for Sunday lol. GFS has a different solution every time lol

Stop using it. Stick with Para

Next week looks really active and cold on the GFS. GFS cooks up something for midweek.

GFS Para has some rain showers for this event. Really shears out the energy and gets nothing organized. Model mahem continues.

Ggem is a snowstorm for the area 

Euro with a drastic change from 12z. Back to the snowstorm idea

It warms up on the Euro since the energy is very sheared out and there's no clear surface reflection. 



Verbatim, maybe 1-3 inches for the city, more north and west

Euro is turning this into a 2 part storm. 1 piece on the 29th...another on the 31st 

Now has a coastal storm 

Oh boy 

frank when do you think the models will have a good handle on these storms next week? it's crazy how they are flipping back and forth and even changing which days they happen

algae888 wrote:frank when do you think the models will have a good handle on these storms next week?  it's crazy how they are flipping back and forth and even changing which days they happen

I've never seen such drastic changes in model runs. I can't really answer that question, but my guess is Thursday.

yes I agree. the good thing is we at least have something to track. this last week or so has been frustrating to say the least. also just read article that scott posted. very encouraging. I always felt and still do that we will have a very good winter.

I agree about the models going hellawackshiznit lol (if you have never seen the blue man group you won't get that word) I never recall them being so all over the place, Euro starts only 144 hrs out and I would think it would at least have a day picked lol, GFS para losing it and bringing it back, cmc does same thing. I honestly wonder if that NWS hack has anything to do with it and its just being kept under wraps that its a issue.

06z GFS para misses with the 28-29th and has a dang cutter around the first, changes areas N & west to snow, I dunno what to believe.

Euro was beautiful even down to the coast with both systems, we all get a pretty good dumping verbatim on snow map. Nope not gonna post it no reason too, its going to change at 12z.

Im not sure that the solns for the 28th and beyond are all that far off from one another actually.   Why you ask??

Well  Keep in mind all of this energy that is creating the system today into tomorrow eve has yet to all interact, so although this system today through tomorrow is not going to be affecting our area positively with regards to snow it is still a very large complex system with many working parts that are still in the process of coming together.  If an individual model has any deviation with one or more pieces to this system, even subtle differences, with how this energy comes together this will cause deviations on the exact evolution (positioning of arctic front, strength and speed of HP building in, strength of the LP waves involved in the STJ etc.) from run to run/model to model.  

So it is no surprise at all at this time that we are not seeing consistency yet with the 28th-31st time frame.  Start to take notice to the solns by 12z tomorrow the earliest.  Until that time any and all solns are valid.  By 12z Thurs we will start to see convergence on a soln.  Again I said it before and Ill say it again.  Take a break people.  Don't try so hard to figure this out just yet because until the system today evolves we wont know how the system over the weekend evolves.  

MERRY CHRISTMAS AND HAPPY HANUKKAH!!!!!!

Europ ensembles have some good hits, Euro control for fun 15 day is nuts with snow totals, mostly north of NYC but even into NYC has per this run a good amount of snowfall in that time, the majority falling in the 28-1st timeframe.

Anyone see the NWS forecast from Sunday to Tuesday? They increased precip. potential for all 3 days but also increased temperatures a good 6 to 8 degrees every day. Could this be because they expect a much further north low track?

I'll check in later. Going to zio's now for a full 7 course fish feast. Happy holidays to all and Buona Natale to my italian brethren on this sight.

syosnow94 wrote:Anyone see the NWS forecast from Sunday to Tuesday?  They increased precip. potential for all 3 days but also increased temperatures a good 6 to 8 degrees every day.  Could this be because they expect a much further north low track?

I'll check in later.  Going to zio's now for a full 7 course fish feast.  Happy holidays to all and Buona Natale to my italian brethren on this sight.

Geez you guys eat early! By the way, those forecasts are generated off the GFS model. In other words, useless so stop looking at them. 

GFS shows just a frontal passage with rain on the 28th. Very different from euron

syosnow94 wrote:

I'll check in later.  Going to zio's now for a full 7 course fish feast.  Happy holidays to all and Buona Natale to my italian brethren on this sight.

Buona Natale to you too! Fish fest later tonight! Can't wait!

Frank_Wx wrote:

syosnow94 wrote:Anyone see the NWS forecast from Sunday to Tuesday?  They increased precip. potential for all 3 days but also increased temperatures a good 6 to 8 degrees every day.  Could this be because they expect a much further north low track?

I'll check in later.  Going to zio's now for a full 7 course fish feast.  Happy holidays to all and Buona Natale to my italian brethren on this sight.

Geez you guys eat early! By the way, those forecasts are generated off the GFS model. In other words, useless so stop looking at them. 

GFS shows just a frontal passage with rain on the 28th. Very different from euron

We eat from 1 till 6. Course after course of fish. Traditional Italian. Then I drink too much vino and play santa for all the kids and lose about 5 pounds of sweat. I love it. Best day of the year. A little white would be the icing on the cake.

Hahaha

syosnow94 wrote:Anyone see the NWS forecast from Sunday to Tuesday?  They increased precip. potential for all 3 days but also increased temperatures a good 6 to 8 degrees every day.  Could this be because they expect a much further north low track?

I'll check in later.  Going to zio's now for a full 7 course fish feast.  Happy holidays to all and Buona Natale to my italian brethren on this sight.

Buona Natale to you too Syo!!

I got in the christmas spirit today when i passed by a best buy parking lot and saw a snow mound piled into a corner from previous snow even. Pretty durable snow if you aske me. Merry Christmas to everyone. I have to work today from 5-1:30am and tomorrow from 6-2:30 am. Can't wait to be independent next year and spend holidays with my family. And to stay on topic, snow came back for Monday again instead of rain. Next week the cold definitely kicks in, but of course moisture looks to be absent afte Tuesday. Seems to happen a lot, when cold is here the moisture disappears. Last yea was different. It was bitter cold and moisture was there.

HectorO wrote:I got in the christmas spirit today when i passed by a best buy parking lot and saw a snow mound piled into a corner from previous snow even. Pretty durable snow if you aske me. Merry Christmas to everyone. I have to work today from 5-1:30am and tomorrow from 6-2:30 am. Can't wait to be independent next year and spend holidays with my family. And to stay on topic, snow came back for Monday again instead of rain. Next week the cold definitely kicks in, but of course moisture looks to be absent afte Tuesday. Seems to happen a lot, when cold is here the moisture disappears. Last yea was different. It was bitter cold and moisture was there.

Buon Natale, sorry to hear about your work schedule. Sucks, man. 

12z Cmc looks snowy for 30th. Rain to snow

The Cmc looks like the euro in the sense that it's combining these waves into 1 event. Cmc has a storm from 29th-31st, like euro.

GFS has a storm on the 28th then another around the 30th-31st. 2 events. 

Big difference on how the energy is being handled.