BLOG: Next 2-3 Weeks Will Determine Fate Of Winter

Idk if any of you guys noticed, but we have to watch how a trailing shortwave develops (or hopefully doesn't develop) as the larger trough starts deepening and inducing cyclogenesis. Just as a "for instance", look at hour 96 on the latest Euro run; do you see that small shortwave over southwestern MN/northwestern IA? That is the reason why the system remains offshore and the main trough responsible for the coastal development stays neutrally tilted....it's too close. This acts as a kicker for the larger system, and does not allow it to deepen to its fullest potential, nor tilt negative (almost identically to how this clipper is going to work out). We must keep an eye on that second shortwave; it's going to be the key to this whole event, I think. The stronger that secondary piece, the further OTS and weaker this possible storm is; the weaker (or nonexistence thereof), the better shot we have of seeing a widespread significant snowstorm.

Hour 96 - 999
Hour 108 - 975
24 mbs in 12 hours - Stronger deepening than at 0Z

Could be one run or a trend????

mugs that would be incredible, the Euro showed two HECS last night offshore, imagine two HECS a few days apart, and if they are close enough it will be a allout hurricane blizzard for both, they bomb like crazy, just when it happens will be critical, and I disagree Al no disrespect that it will trend east again, maybe a bit now but in long run I think it will be much further east, packing sub 970mb and producing its own cold and giving what Bastardi said! Hey he can get it right from time to time, look at Sandy, that's their staple.

rb924119 wrote:Idk if any of you guys noticed, but we have to watch how a trailing shortwave develops (or hopefully doesn't develop) as the larger trough starts deepening and inducing cyclogenesis. Just as a "for instance", look at hour 96 on the latest Euro run; do you see that small shortwave over southwestern MN/northwestern IA? That is the reason why the system remains offshore and the main trough responsible for the coastal development stays neutrally tilted....it's too close. This acts as a kicker for the larger system, and does not allow it to deepen to its fullest potential, nor tilt negative (almost identically to how this clipper is going to work out). We must keep an eye on that second shortwave; it's going to be the key to this whole event, I think. The stronger that secondary piece, the further OTS and weaker this possible storm is; the weaker (or nonexistence), the better shot we have of seeing a widespread major significant snowstorm.

Correct. 100%

Was going to show this in analysis tonight. Also, there is still no northern stream phasing so we're not exactly replenishing the cold air mass. The only phase involved with this system occurs in the SW CONUS with the STJ

Damnit why you guys have to throw that in there NOW lol, I really hope it weakens then, and that we see a northern phase, presumably if we saw a northern piece phase this thing would be beyond monstrous?

Yes things are going to change back and forth. Like Frank and rbj said have to see how that kicker does if anything

jmanley32 wrote:Damnit why you guys have to throw that in there NOW lol, I really hope it weakens then, and that we see a northern phase, presumably if we saw a northern piece phase this thing would be beyond monstrous?

There is northern stream phasing...well offshore.

So is there anyway that northern stream phasing could have anything to do with this system closer to us?

Lets me keep things in perspective here folks.  There is no doubt the trends over the past 48hrs with this system are Fantabulous.  We are close but we ARE NOT there yet.  We are still at least 4 - 4.5days away from game time.  The one this that is becoming clearer is the lieklyhood of a very strong storm.  But weather its at or near the BM or grazing us harmlessly and OTS is still up in the air.  That being said confidence grows rapidly for at least some sort of impacts for most of us.

Let me remind everyone of this as well.  With a storm that is modeled as strong as it is being shown on pretty much every model now dynamics of the storm will absolutely play a role if it is close enough.  For those who don't know what that means:  A storm that is strong enough will generate its own cold air drawing it in from the upper levels even if there is no full phase with the northern jet which this storm is looking like (at least not as it approaches 40N Lat. A Phase with the N branch occurs as it passes 40NLat).  The intensity of the rising motion with such a deep LP leads to heavy precipitation rates which ultimately drags the cold air down cooling the column as it does so by a process known as evaporative cooling.  Global models NEVER, and WILL NOT be able to pinpoint how those dynamics will play out and exactly where 4days out.  I promise you if a sub 975MB LP passes on or near the BM areas that look like might be marginal will end up colder and snowier.  TRUST ME.  The highest snow fall amts occur right on that R/S line with these types of bombs and it will not be fully known until inside 24hrs, and in some cases not until actual game time.  I will use the Feb 8th 2013 "Nemo" I received 29" of snow with that system in northern Suffolk county.  Six miles to my due south 12-14" and 8-12 miles to the south anywhere from 3-6".  Now those are some cutoffs.  Ciao for now!

jmanley32 wrote:So is there anyway that northern stream phasing could have anything to do with this system closer to us?

I think definitely maybe but prob def not until it is N of our Lat.

Ahh ok, well I do not think that's too big a deal if what you just posted happens. Its strong enough at 975mb, 955mb, would bring super high winds and damage, we do not need that, nova scotia may endure that.

12Z EURO ensembles for the weekend. WOW Those are some HUGE BOMBS from a lot of the 51 members!

so I'm hearing that the Euro ensemble mean is west of the operational and the GFS ensemble is east of its operational.

Math23x7 wrote:12Z EURO ensembles for the weekend.  WOW Those are some HUGE BOMBS from a lot of the 51 members!

Ummm feast yo eyes on Dat! Most if not all sub 980.
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sroc4 wrote:

Math23x7 wrote:12Z EURO ensembles for the weekend.  WOW Those are some HUGE BOMBS from a lot of the 51 members!

Ummm feast yo eyes on Dat!  Most if not all sub 980.  
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Scott, if you look at several frames before you may also see that Clipper moving through Canada that is pretty much in Quebec by hr 96 and notice the superbomb it has near Nova Scotia by hr 120. Imagine if the Clipper went south of the Us-Canada border and it phased sooner. But looking at this, it would feature both a "Miller A" and "Miller B" because of what I just mentioned.

amugs wrote:114 on Euro - SYOSNOW you watching????????

Yeah I'm watching and very skeptically!..NOT 1 threat this winter has worked out not 1!! EVERY single threat has gone poof as we got inside 3 days time including this clipper which went 3 to 5 down to maybe c to 1. Why would this be any different. I'm hopeful but doubtful. And where's the cold air???? If this trend happened inside of 3 days I'd be excited. The fact that it's 5 days out gives it plenty of time to trend either OTS or more likely too close and rain. Talk to me Thursday night!

I believe a system like that would make its own cold air

by the way. The Weather Channel has me on LI for a high of 36 degrees and a 90% chance of snow changing to rain for Sat.

syosnow94 wrote:by the way.  The Weather Channel has me on LI for a high of 36 degrees and a 90% chance of snow changing to rain for Sat.

Believe this and call it a night Syo.

syosnow94 wrote:by the way.  The Weather Channel has me on LI for a high of 36 degrees and a 90% chance of snow changing to rain for Sat.

The WHO Channel? Lol

The weather channel they still on!!!lol

The Euro ensembles are way west sroc beat me to the posting and they are also pretty tightly clustered from just a day or two ago and wow what bombs, I think it is safe to say we are in for it, well not 1`00% safe but its looking more likely.

sroc4 wrote:

syosnow94 wrote:by the way.  The Weather Channel has me on LI for a high of 36 degrees and a 90% chance of snow changing to rain for Sat.

Believe this and call it a night Syo.

I Don't believe them just offering a different forecast perspective. I'm as hopeful as all of you and see the positive trends. But it's still 4+ days out and this winter has broken my spirit so I'll be only lukewarm about the potential till we're inside of 3 days then I'll be as fired up or moreso than most.

Lets try to keep positive vibes then. Keep the neg for the banter thread

sroc4 wrote:Lets try to keep positive vibes then.  Keep the neg for the banter thread

Temporary ban for anyone being a Debbie downer or negative comments until next weekend.

sroc4 wrote:Lets try to keep positive vibes then.  Keep the neg for the banter thread

Be careful.   There was a good old fashioned witch hunt going on in those parts earlier today with a penchant for a monster burning    Apologies as this also belongs in banter.