Update #1: The Next One (1/26/15)

The next storm threat is Monday. The good news with this storm is there should not be p-type issues. The injection of cold air that comes down with the northern stream energy is impressive and will take us into the 20's next week.



The GFS is a better solution than the EURO if you want to see a big storm off the coast. The trough goes negative in an ideal location and a surface low develops off the coast. Unfortunately, there is no west-based blocking so we actually want to see the surface low mature INLAND to see big snows, not off the coast. It can deepen offshore, but I would like to see it developed before it gets to the coast.



The EURO keeps some of the northern stream energy left on the backside of the trough instead of phasing it into the mean trough at its base. It also digs the energy much more so the surface low develops even further offshore.

Again, the POTENTIAL is there for a big storm depending on the timing of the trough going negative and whether or not H5 closes off. We'll see what happens. Timing is for Monday

Why don't we make this the Monday thread since it really isn't long range anymore?

This is the Monday thread. It's in parentheses.

Frank_Wx wrote:This is the Monday thread. It's in parentheses.

Great, if solutions like the GFS work out, this could be a lot bigger than Saturday's.

Yes, but if there was a -NAO this would be much easier. That said, this could be a high ratio snowfall as well. It's just a matter of where the surface low forms. No doubt that it will.

question does this storm on the weekend have an affect on Mondays if so what are they.

skinsfan1177 wrote:question does this storm on the weekend have an affect on Mondays if so what are they.

Nope. The northern jet is so fast that it quickly takes the Saturday storm into the Arctic

Frank_Wx wrote:

skinsfan1177 wrote:question does this storm on the weekend have an affect on Mondays if so what are they.

Nope. The northern jet is so fast that it quickly takes the Saturday storm into the Arctic

Thanks Frank was curious that's all. This one looks like it could be a long duration event. I know no details yet but im excited I know this Saturdays is a disappointment but im looking at the postives for this one on Monday. Positive Vibes Everyone

skinsfan1177 wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:

skinsfan1177 wrote:question does this storm on the weekend have an affect on Mondays if so what are they.

Nope. The northern jet is so fast that it quickly takes the Saturday storm into the Arctic

Thanks Frank was curious that's all. This one looks like it could be a long duration event. I know no details yet but im excited I know this Saturdays is a disappointment but im looking at the postives for this one on Monday. Positive Vibes Everyone

Long duration events are fun, as you can watch snow falling for a long time, but can be annoying, because the dry slot lasts longer, too.

00z GFS dug the northern stream energy too much. Caved to the EURO but still manages to get high ratio snows into the area.

00z NAVGEM

no pic

wow, a ton of snow from monday NAV GEM!

All of the models are now south for this storm. 6z Navgem went south, Euro doesn't give us anything. Euro Ensemble mean is way south. GFS is still the furthest north along with the ensembles but it also went south.

Snow88 wrote:All of the models are now south for this storm. 6z Navgem went south, Euro doesn't give us anything. Euro Ensemble mean is way south. GFS is still the furthest north along with the ensembles but it also went south.

Really!! I see that the NWS also lowered the duration of the snow. We're getting inside of 3 days!. Here we go again?

6Z GFS is a little better than 00Z.

Analog96 wrote:6Z GFS is a little better than 00Z.

How so? I don't see it.

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:

Analog96 wrote:6Z GFS is a little better than 00Z.

How so? I don't see it.

QPF is higher and it snows longer.

Oh boy I hope thus one doesn't go

skinsfan1177 wrote:Oh boy I hope thus one doesn't go

Big difference between Ocean County, NJ, and Orange County, NY with this one.

Yes about 159 miles

skinsfan1177 wrote:Yes about 159 miles

I'm talking about impacts.

I know analog so at this time what's it looking like amounts duration

skinsfan1177 wrote:Yes about 159 miles

Geographically more like 120 miles.

Monday south is better, tomorrow we should do better. The amount of qpf showing up on the models everywhere on Monday concerns me, it's pretty dry as of latest runs.

skinsfan1177 wrote:I know analog so at this time what's it looking like amounts duration

I wouldn't even want to do this until the next event is gone, but it's very possible you could have a warning level snow while orange county gets next to nothing?