Update #1: The Next One (1/26/15)

skinsfan1177 wrote:Yes about 159 miles

Geographically more like 120 miles.

Monday south is better, tomorrow we should do better. The amount of qpf showing up on the models everywhere on Monday concerns me, it's pretty dry as of latest runs.

skinsfan1177 wrote:I know analog so at this time what's it looking like amounts duration

I wouldn't even want to do this until the next event is gone, but it's very possible you could have a warning level snow while orange county gets next to nothing?

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:

skinsfan1177 wrote:Yes about 159 miles

Geographically more like 120 miles.

Monday south is better, tomorrow we should do better. The amount of qpf showing up on the models everywhere on Monday concerns me, it's pretty dry as of  latest runs.

NWS shows an average of .33 QPF for Long Island Monday/Monday night.  Less north and only slightly more south.  If this verifies we're looking at 2 minor events with tremendous hype coming in.  Tomorrow's and Monday's.

True but snow ratios should be of the 15:1 and possibly a bit higher with the cold air/temps aloft. So with .33 QPF you can squeeze a decent measurable snowfall.

Lets get this Saturday storm out of the way and then we can focus on Monday's peeps. Is the clipper even on land - I do not see it on any maps?

syosnow94 wrote:

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:

skinsfan1177 wrote:Yes about 159 miles

Geographically more like 120 miles.

Monday south is better, tomorrow we should do better. The amount of qpf showing up on the models everywhere on Monday concerns me, it's pretty dry as of  latest runs.

NWS shows an average of .33 QPF for Long Island Monday/Monday night.  Less north and only slightly more south.  If this verifies we're looking at 2 minor events with tremendous hype coming in.  Tomorrow's and Monday's.

True but snow ratios should be of the 15:1 and possibly a bit higher with the cold air/temps aloft. So with .33 QPF you can squeeze a decent measurable snowfall.

Lets get this Saturday storm out of the way and then we can focus on Monday's peeps. Is the clipper even on land - I do not see it on any maps?

No, it isn't on land yet.

OKX mentioned that in their discussion.

0.33" with that storm could be like 5" given that it's a clipper and the air mass will be cold.

Don't know if this is worth anything, and I hope it isn't but the 12Z NAM shows nothing north of ACY for the Monday system basically.

This thing may be dead on arrival.

Now the NAM is a trendsetter?

I've seen it all this winter.

Monday looks to be all south and not even that wet on latest model runs, maybe this will change...hopefully. For now focus on tomorrow and hope for a overperformance, tomorrow may be our chance at some excitement if things go in the right direction. But I can honestly say it seems like the models are a clusterf+++ and don't have a clue except the short rangers, which are calling for a possibly dangerous snow/ice event.

jmanley32 wrote:Monday looks to be all south and not even that wet on latest model runs, maybe this will change...hopefully.  For now focus on tomorrow and hope for a overperformance, tomorrow may be our chance at some excitement if things go in the right direction.  But I can honestly say it seems like the models are a clusterf+++ and don't have a clue except the short rangers, which are calling for a possibly dangerous snow/ice event.

It's REALLY bad this year.

I know we say this every year, but this year seems worse than ever, with models not having a clue on anything until we get within like 36 hours.

Let's keep our eye on this and see what happens until 00Z tomorrow night at least.

Then maybe there's another clipper a couple days after that at least good for an inch or two of powder.

Monday storm threat dead yet??? Seems like it on NWS!

NWS had me at a 50% chance of snow Sunday night,Monday and Monday night.  Now down to 20 to 30%

syosnow94 wrote:NWS had me at a 50% chance of snow Sunday night,Monday and Monday night.  Now down to 20 to 30%

Suppression depression my friend. Looks more of a Dc Baltimore area system

syosnow94 wrote:NWS had me at a 50% chance of snow Sunday night,Monday and Monday night.  Now down to 20 to 30%

As well they should, based on today's guidance.

I like that step down method of forecasting, go from 50 down to 20 or 30.

Then tomorrow if the models show nothing, you can go down to flurries.

Yeah this is frustrating Monday seemed like a lock Ace for us pattern better but nope

One thing I don't understand is I thought this would not be suppressed that the PV wasn't going to be an issue so what happened?

skinsfan1177 wrote:One thing I don't understand is I thought this would not be suppressed that the PV wasn't going to be an issue so what happened?

Te winter of 2014/2015 happened!

I know syo lol but am looking for analysis why

It is not done yet - once we get this storm out of the way the models will have a better handle on this next week - two pieces are looking interesting as per GFS run here.

Looks south as of now but we'll see if we get the crazy phase as shown on the gfs.

Just chiming in, TWC took all snow out for Monday just cloudy day

Yeah this is not looking good as of now a day ago great this just isn't our winter

Now 18Z GFS gives this a little life lol.

Sunday, February 1st. That's what I'm thinking is our next chance.

devsman wrote:Sunday, February 1st. That's what I'm thinking is our next chance.

One at a time... there's a clipper the night of the 29th that could give everyone a nice inch or two also.

Wow look at euro..blew this storm up!

No wonder...it closed off H5 off the coast of NJ.

Stay tuned. Another moderate snowfall possible for coast

Frank_Wx wrote:Wow look at euro..blew this storm up!

frank gfs and nam did too. just a little east though

There's two pieces of northern stream energy to focus on. The euro was able to phase in the second one into the mean trough faster before it was too far out to sea. H5 closed off and the storm was closer to the coast. There's also some higher heights in Nova Scotia that could act as a block. Full latitude troughs are nothing to mess with...

holy crap anyone wanna see the snow map for this one on euro? If this comes west at all may be uncaging the monster.