Update #4: Final Snow/Ice Map, January Blitz Storm

syosnow94 wrote:

sroc4 wrote:BTW Great Map Frank.  Your 4-8 zone does look a touch Phallic however

Holy crap Frank sroc is right.  I couldn't have drawn a more perfect pe__s if I tried.  I also remember back in November you said you had trouble forecasting LI.  I think having 2 to 4 over suffolk including the north fork and just 10 miles north 6 to 10 is a little strange, but great job.  and thanks.

CT is a different animal. Much different climate. They always do better than LI especially when temps are marginal. P.S.- temps are already 34-35 degrees so any hint of warmup in the mid layers is going to cause snow to quickly changeover to mixed or rain. Not one model shows anything greater than 4 inches for LI, and if it does, it's probably sleet. We'll see though. Even if isolated locations out there see a 5 spot I won't be bent out over it. This is a tough forecast.

What's up Frank, Doc. Zoo, et al. nothing but crap little events out here on the East End thus far this winter. The snowblower hasn't been arisen from dormancy yet. just saying hello.

Cheers,
Nofo

Frank_Wx wrote:

syosnow94 wrote:

sroc4 wrote:BTW Great Map Frank.  Your 4-8 zone does look a touch Phallic however

Holy crap Frank sroc is right.  I couldn't have drawn a more perfect pe__s if I tried.  I also remember back in November you said you had trouble forecasting LI.  I think having 2 to 4 over suffolk including the north fork and just 10 miles north 6 to 10 is a little strange, but great job.  and thanks.

CT is a different animal. Much different climate. They always do better than LI especially when temps are marginal. P.S.- temps are already 34-35 degrees so any hint of warmup in the mid layers is going to cause snow to quickly changeover to mixed or rain. Not one model shows anything greater than 4 inches for LI, and if it does, it's probably sleet. We'll see though. Even if isolated locations out there see a 5 spot I won't be bent out over it. This is a tough forecast.

still no comment on what sroc and I think about the shape of your 4 to 8 zone?

4 to 8 for me. Not extreme like we all would prefer but if I get 4 to 8 I will be happy its a nice event. I am not the weather expert like some of you guys on this board and I know a lot of factors play into storms. However since I was child I was always watching the weather channel 24/7 leading up to and during a storm. This reminds me of what led to many good storms. Seeing the radar full of dark green on the gulf getting ready to move towards and up the coast with a questionable rain snow line in NYC.
Frank forget the wine you earned yourself something harder like a Jameson after a hard week of work

nutleyblizzard wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:I think depending on what the ice accumulates on will determine how dangerous it will be of course if it accumulates on trees that's a whole not her story. And I'm not talk bout nyc but frank does include them in the .1 or more which I was surprised even if it is sleet. It's a nowcast though.

I just don't think there will be much of an ice problem for us for a couple of reasons. For one thing with a lot of years under my belt tracking miller A storms, if there is a changeover with these big storms, it would tend to favor sleet or rain versus ice. On a more important note, the NAM and RGEM have been trending colder with each run. If the RGEM ticks any colder, I would move that 4-8 area on Frank's map down to the NYC area.

If NYC gets more than 6 inches I'll make you a mod for 1 week.

Sorry, hello to sroc as well. Hope you are well buddy.

nofoboater wrote:What's up Frank, Doc. Zoo, et al. nothing but crap little events out here on the East End thus far this winter. The snowblower hasn't been arisen from dormancy yet. just saying hello.

Cheers,
Nofo

Nofo! Hope all is well.

2004blackwrx wrote:4 to 8 for me. Not extreme like we all would prefer but if I get 4 to 8 I will be happy its a nice event. I am not the weather expert like  some of you guys on this board and I know a lot of factors play into storms. However since I was child I was always watching the weather channel 24/7 leading up to and during a storm. This reminds me of what led to many good storms. Seeing the radar full of dark green on the gulf getting ready to move towards and up the coast with a questionable rain snow line in NYC.
Frank forget the wine you earned yourself something harder like a Jameson after a hard week of work

I do have Captain Morgan....

Looks awesome! Heres hoping!

Is there any chance this storm stalls out a little and slows down?

Scullybutcher wrote:Is there any chance this storm stalls out a little and slows down?

No.

Nice Frank, spent much time with cap morgan when I was in college. Cap n Coke as I would call it, splash of Coca Cola with Captain Morgan on the rocks, haha.

What is that coming down from the Great Lakes Does that get involved in our storm? Somebody

OMGGG, HRRR smacks NYC with 6" and delays changeover even more

Nice and wet. Got to love the yellows

The 0Z HRRR has NYC going from snow to ice through 10 AM tomorrow (the end of the run). Maybe southern Queens (including me) get to plain rain, but it looks ugly in terms of ice. I await the 0Z Hi-Res Nam and the 0Z RGEM.

having a real hard time deciding what to do.....do I stay or go tomorrow.....in Massachusetts.....

oldtimer wrote:What is that coming down from the Great Lakes   Does that get involved in our storm? Somebody

No. It's actually preventing winds from coming out of the northwest. That's why coast will experience p type issues

Thanks Frank But that gives us a SW flow

SoulSingMG wrote:OMGGG, HRRR smacks NYC with 6" and delays changeover even more

I just might have to brush up on my mod skills Frank.

Latest HRRR has 6-8" in CNJ, this is going to be a long night

I know technically a WSW in our area is 6 inches or more of snow. Yet they're predicting up up to 6 and considering the ice that they're also predicting I'm surprised they haven't issued one.

.WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY...

* LOCATIONS...MUCH OF SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY...AND INTERIOR NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW AND ICE.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH
LOCALLY 6 INCH AMOUNTS. 1 TO 2 TENTHS OF AN INCH OF ICE.

* VISIBILITY...ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES SATURDAY
MORNING.

* SNOWFALL RATES...1 INCH PER HOUR EARLY TO MID SATURDAY MORNING.

damn thats some heavy ass frz for my area!

CP, I bet you anything they up it late tonight, they just wait till the last second.

Jman:

But some very intense snow bands as is often the case on the dividing line. Who knows maybe you'll be under those.

Hi guys sorry if I'm posting on wrong thread , dont want to get ahead of this storm but is Monday's storm still there ?