Re: Update #3: Roidzilla Coming, But For Who? (1/26-1/27/15)

by Abba701 Mon Jan 26, 2015 1:09 am

So Frank...will the NWS stick with their numbers you think?

by **jmanley32** Mon Jan 26, 2015 1:10 am

it came east but compared to 12z totals in some areas around NYC went up lol this is too crazy.

by **jmanley32** Mon Jan 26, 2015 1:10 am

Al are we a lock or is 12z tomorrow still a threat if the other model do not change

by **jmanley32** Mon Jan 26, 2015 1:11 am

Al your picture all the way lol

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Mon Jan 26, 2015 1:12 am

jmanley32 wrote:Al with ratios its still 30+! OMG I cannot explain the relief I have, its close enough to game time i do not think we can say the euro is wrong.

Euro has been consistent but it is the outlier.

I'm not really sure what to think now.

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Jan 26, 2015 1:12 am

My final snow map is coming out soon. I have work all day tomorrow and really want to get it out for everyone to see.

by **algae888** Mon Jan 26, 2015 1:14 am

jmanley32 wrote:Al are we a lock or is 12z tomorrow still a threat if the other model do not change

its only a lock when I put the ruler in the ground.lol best way to go from hear is what I stated earlier expect a foot which is great and if we get 30" all the better. I do have a feeling that some will be disappointed with this storm as we now see there will be sharper cutoffs. jman lets hope its not us

by **jmanley32** Mon Jan 26, 2015 1:15 am

Oh please I hope its the same or close, CP yes it is the one on its own but it was also with sandy, although this is not sandy the intensity of a storm like this might be why the other models may never get it right. It is a debacle as to what to think though.

by **jmanley32** Mon Jan 26, 2015 1:16 am

Al we are well into the 20+ area on Euro and even still well into the foot plus on the other models, I think the euro wins I really do, I know I do not have scientific explanation but I had this feeling with sandy and I do about this too.

by chief7 Mon Jan 26, 2015 1:17 am

How does the Trenton area do

by **jmanley32** Mon Jan 26, 2015 1:17 am

Ha with the euro you will need more than a yardstick possibly lol friggin awesome, but if we get less so be it, at least we were not totally let down tonight, i am so tired and if euro caved i was going to call it quits for staying up late for rest of winter

by **SNOW MAN** Mon Jan 26, 2015 1:18 am

Anyone have any thoughts on todays forecast. I'm only asking because I have to commute to NJ from EPA and I don't feel like getting out of work at 4:00 and having a rough commute home. Thanks.

by **algae888** Mon Jan 26, 2015 1:18 am

if euro verifies they should just get rid of the other models and take the money invested in them and use it to make the euro better

by **rb924119** Mon Jan 26, 2015 1:21 am

SNOW MAN wrote:Anyone have any thoughts on todays forecast. I'm only asking because I have to commute to NJ from EPA and I don't feel like getting out of work at 4:00 and having a rough commute home. Thanks.

You'll be headed out of it. It should just be getting going between 4-6pm tomorrow, so you should be fine, I think.

by **jmanley32** Mon Jan 26, 2015 1:21 am

Are u giddy Al, I sure am when the nam started the east trend i was like omg, for hours I had to wait and much weight has been lifted, yes its still strange but i really do feel the euro wil lwin out. what is your gut feeling?

by **algae888** Mon Jan 26, 2015 1:21 am

algae888 wrote:this from another board. I believe he is a met with nws and he explains nws thinking on this storm

Good evening everyone...yes today's NWS forecasts were heavily weighted toward the 12Z NAM/ECMWF...no secret there if you read the WPC QPF discussion. Seeing 850 winds whose u-component was I think +6 SD's beyond the mean (to say nothing of a fetch from almost beyond Nova Scotia, something I have not seen since Sandy) tends to make one think big on snowfall. My forecast of 24-30" (the graphics showing 24-36" are a little misleading) may be a little broad-brushed, and depends on where the most intense banding sets up. As usual I think it'll be west/north of model forecast and more along a line from Danbury to NYC than from Hartford to Huntington. Will probably be widespread 18-24" with a band of at least 24-30". GFS was totally discounted due to its more progressive solution...no loop-de-loop near or inside the benchmark late Mon night-Tue from a Miller B storm of this magnitude? C'mon now

I posted this before and what I agree with is in bold. basically that's what euro does

by **rb924119** Mon Jan 26, 2015 1:23 am

The fact that this has NO other support, especially by short-range guidance, still makes me question it. Not like it matters for me anyway, I'm out of this picture regardless ahahaha

by **jmanley32** Mon Jan 26, 2015 1:24 am

i do not see it suddenly changing at 12z tomorrow i just do not

by **SNOW MAN** Mon Jan 26, 2015 1:25 am

rb924119 wrote:
SNOW MAN wrote:Anyone have any thoughts on todays forecast. I'm only asking because I have to commute to NJ from EPA and I don't feel like getting out of work at 4:00 and having a rough commute home. Thanks.

You'll be headed out of it. It should just be getting going between 4-6pm tomorrow, so you should be fine, I think.

Thanks. What about the snow we're suppose to get during the day today, do you think it will add up to anything ?

by **algae888** Mon Jan 26, 2015 1:26 am

jmanley32 wrote:Are u giddy Al, I sure am when the nam started the east trend i was like omg, for hours I had to wait and much weight has been lifted, yes its still strange but i really do feel the euro wil lwin out. what is your gut feeling?

i'm excited and I just want to enjoy this storm I hope for 30" of snow but that is the extreme solution at this point except for e li and mass. if i had to make a forecast 12-24 from just west of nyc on east. cant ask for much more than that.

by **rb924119** Mon Jan 26, 2015 1:27 am

SNOW MAN wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
SNOW MAN wrote:Anyone have any thoughts on todays forecast. I'm only asking because I have to commute to NJ from EPA and I don't feel like getting out of work at 4:00 and having a rough commute home. Thanks.

You'll be headed out of it. It should just be getting going between 4-6pm tomorrow, so you should be fine, I think.

Thanks. What about the snow we're suppose to get during the day today, do you think it will add up to anything ?

Probably like a 1-3/2-4" event at most. Just enough to make it slick, but it should be a steady light snow; nothing heavy.

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Mon Jan 26, 2015 1:28 am

algae888 wrote:
algae888 wrote:this from another board. I believe he is a met with nws and he explains nws thinking on this storm

Good evening everyone...yes today's NWS forecasts were heavily weighted toward the 12Z NAM/ECMWF...no secret there if you read the WPC QPF discussion. Seeing 850 winds whose u-component was I think +6 SD's beyond the mean (to say nothing of a fetch from almost beyond Nova Scotia, something I have not seen since Sandy) tends to make one think big on snowfall. My forecast of 24-30" (the graphics showing 24-36" are a little misleading) may be a little broad-brushed, and depends on where the most intense banding sets up. As usual I think it'll be west/north of model forecast and more along a line from Danbury to NYC than from Hartford to Huntington. Will probably be widespread 18-24" with a band of at least 24-30". GFS was totally discounted due to its more progressive solution...no loop-de-loop near or inside the benchmark late Mon night-Tue from a Miller B storm of this magnitude? C'mon now
I posted this before and what I agree with is in bold. basically that's what euro does

Excellent points Al.

I think I can finally sleep now. Should be fascinating tomorrow.

by **jmanley32** Mon Jan 26, 2015 1:28 am

guys we need to thank my wife, this is going to verify,, she has been my good luck charm many times. before she went to bed i told her models looked backing off (she is not a weenie like me) but for the sake of us she said "I know you love the euro and it will verify this storm is coming in"! She also told me in 2008 on new years eve we would hit a jackpot at the yonkers raceway, she hit the button as we took turns and we won 6 grand on a progressive!

by **jmanley32** Mon Jan 26, 2015 1:29 am

Dont u guys want to see franks snow map, he is painting it up now

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Mon Jan 26, 2015 1:30 am

rb924119 wrote:The fact that this has NO other support, especially by short-range guidance, still makes me question it. Not like it matters for me anyway, I'm out of this picture regardless ahahaha

But that's the other thing that bothers me, forget the GFS and NAM but no short range model support, another big concern, IMO.

by **SNOW MAN** Mon Jan 26, 2015 1:30 am

rb924119 wrote:
SNOW MAN wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
SNOW MAN wrote:Anyone have any thoughts on todays forecast. I'm only asking because I have to commute to NJ from EPA and I don't feel like getting out of work at 4:00 and having a rough commute home. Thanks.

You'll be headed out of it. It should just be getting going between 4-6pm tomorrow, so you should be fine, I think.

Thanks. What about the snow we're suppose to get during the day today, do you think it will add up to anything ?

Probably like a 1-3/2-4" event at most. Just enough to make it slick, but it should be a steady light snow; nothing heavy.

Thanks !

by smoggy14 Mon Jan 26, 2015 1:31 am

anxiously awaiting it jman

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