Update#2: BLOG + 1st Call Snow Map

.50 now to NYC on GEFS - here we go peeps FN HERE WE GOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!

More GEFS these are beautiful

mugs how much coffee did you have today you are more amped up than I am lol

I have pushed back the release of my final call snow map until 10pm tonight, after the chat. I would like to see 1 more wave of hi resolution models before releasing. I can say that I do expect at least 3 inches of snow to fall for the NYC Metro area, thus Mets calling for 1-3" are likely to bust low.

As the H5 upper vort makes its way through PA and toward the NJ coast, the wave of vorticity that is going to cross over us could produce thunder snow tomorrow afternoon

. Five will put us into winter storm warning criteria because of ratios

amugs wrote:Jeff Smith keeping with 1-3 NNJ to NYC and 3-6 NYC east to suffik and 6+ to the end of LI - playing it safe

Jeff also said whiteout conditions and very slippery roads between 5pm and 9pm....would anyone agree with this in NNJ? I had valentines dinner plans tomorrow night :/

Frank_Wx wrote:I have pushed back the release of my final call snow map until 10pm tonight, after the chat. I would like to see 1 more wave of hi resolution models before releasing. I can say that I do expect at least 3 inches of snow to fall for the NYC Metro area, thus Mets calling for 1-3" are likely to bust low.

As the H5 upper vort makes its way through PA and toward the NJ coast, the wave of vorticity that is going to cross over us could produce thunder snow tomorrow afternoon

could we also see that Thunder snow in and around New York City that would be really cool I haven't seen that since I was little

GEFS QPF YEAAHHH BABY !!

amugs wrote:More GEFS these are beautiful

mugs for you it may be 50 to 75 miles but for me it's more like 30 to 40 to get into the point five plus

@jman no coffee for this guy kid just pure love, passion for exciting weather and more so snow storms!!

@sabamfa - I would say Ixna on the vday dinner out plans - order food in early evening, make a fire, nice bottle of wine and let the love few as you watch a dynamic storm or not.

Have any of these runs shown any kind of enhancement along coastal areas with precip

Jman I will get good lift here and I will take my 4-6" and be happy that my friend will bring me to or above my seasonal average.

amugs wrote:@jman no coffee for this guy kid just pure love, passion for exciting weather and more so snow storms!!

@sabamfa - I would say Ixna on the vday dinner out  plans -  order food in early evening, make a fire, nice bottle of wine and let the love few as you watch a dynamic storm or not.

wow how do you not drink coffee I can't wake up in the morning without it looks like we are going to at least get into winter storm warning blizzard warning doesn't really matter it's just fun to say hey I have a blizzard warning!

amugs wrote:Jman I will get good lift here and I will take my 4-6" and be happy that my friend will bring me to or above my seasonal average.

I am thinking possibly 6+ here but how much more than six I don't know or maybe it's just around 6 still gonna be fun to watch this unfoldand the winds will definitely be ridiculous and a concern for power in a lot of areas probably including southern Westchester and the majority of the area actually

jon...did you look into the frost king tape....at lowes or home depot...it will def help with your draft problem?

oops posted a question for jman in the wrong area...wanted under banter...sorry do know know how to move

Thanks, mugs! I can always count on you

Here is my first call snow map. I will be waiting until later tonight (probably after 11) or tomorrow morning to make my final call map. I feel like I might change this, just not sure if it's for better or for worse yet.

Btw mugs, I'm loving the enthusiasm!

Snow lets get 'er done said I would wait until last night and today and here i ma - need to go to bball so out until 9ish but I am chatting as soon as I get in.

Great map Snow I concur and in my blog wrote up the same as far as snow amounts.

Playing catchup between the board and Upton lol been out of action all day

Btw, ignore the little 6"-8" shade on part of Staten Island on my map, paint.net sucks lol.

Hearing the SREFS look just as good as the last run.

Upton discussion mentions possibility of b word criteria in the wwa area if they see trends for at least 3 hrs of those conditions. I see that being plausible. I also think tonight's runs might put nyc in the watch or warning area. They are only one inch off as the others have 4 to 8 and we have 3 to 7. Exciting runs tonight. I hope I make it home in time for chat.

snow247 wrote:

2.5 to 5 with ratios def put us just on wsw criteria I think or hope to see 6 inches maybe more maybe less. Of course I want more but being greedy in this setup makes no sense.

SREFS cut back. Not good.

nope not good!!!