1st Call Snow Map, March 4th-5th

12z UKMET looks a little better as well, more precip a little further north. Don't know how much is snow though.

from a met from another board.
"The reality of the situation though with the two waves being so close is that if wave 1 goes north so should wave two, the first wave isn't a dynamic system that would pull the boundary south, if anything it slows it up and keeps it north, it's possible the models are having trouble again because of two different features following so closely."

 

CMC and UKIE - thank God !!

ukie precip map:

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Hmmm interesting, and Al when you all are saying NYC, does this include me and you? Because right now southern parts of N YC have a warning and we do not, do you think there is an y chance we get upgraded or is this just another WWA, or will we not really know since it seems, as you posted above models may be having trouble.....once again lol

jmanley32 wrote:Hmmm interesting, and Al when you all are saying NYC, does this include me and you? Because right now southern parts of N YC have a warning and we do not, do you think there is an y chance we get upgraded or is this just another WWA, or will we not really know since it seems, as you posted above models may be having trouble.....once again lol

North of SI will probably go to a WWA

sroc4 wrote:ukie precip map:

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Wow if that's all snow NYC and northern suburbs that looks like 6-10 or so!

Quietace wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:Hmmm interesting, and Al when you all are saying NYC, does this include me and you? Because right now southern parts of N YC have a warning and we do not, do you think there is an y chance we get upgraded or is this just another WWA, or will we not really know since it seems, as you posted above models may be having trouble.....once again lol

North of SI will probably go to a WWA

Of course....so close yet so far.

jmanley32 wrote:

sroc4 wrote:ukie precip map:

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Wow if that's all snow NYC and northern suburbs that looks like 6-10 or so!

Its not

UKIE is 7-10 for NYC and just north, thank god hoping this one verifies, and wow crushes southern jersey 15-18!

Quietace wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

sroc4 wrote:ukie precip map:

" />

Wow if that's all snow NYC and northern suburbs that looks like 6-10 or so!

Its not

I figured it wasn't how much is rain, or can we not know for sure?

jmanley32 wrote:

Quietace wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

sroc4 wrote:ukie precip map:

" />

Wow if that's all snow NYC and northern suburbs that looks like 6-10 or so!

Its not

I figured it wasn't how much is rain, or can we not know for sure?

Ill wait for it to come out on Wxbell to really judge...maybe 1/4 of it

is there anyway to know when the bulk of the precip will be coming in? When its rain or when its snow?

Damn, that's like a few inches then for me at most.

lglickman1 wrote:is there anyway to know when the bulk of the precip will be coming in? When its rain or when its snow?

I think its going to be very hard to predict when the changeover occurs by looking at models. The arctic air is going to win out and my guess is that change over starts occuring earlier than what most will think. I think the models solns lag behind what is actually going to happen because it happens too quickly for them to pick up on it.

Its getting late for a Winter Storm Watch for Manhattan, BX, So. Westchester. Really is a complicated forecast. Its time to join the rest of NYC in a Warning or go to a WWA.

The fact that there is still so much waffling over the past 24hrs amongst models including some of the S/R tells me that this is going to be a very dynamic and fluid situation overnight.

Dtone wrote:Its getting late for a Winter Storm Watch for Manhattan, BX, So. Westchester. Really is a complicated forecast. Its time to join the rest of NYC in a Warning or go to a WWA.

They will update between 3:30-4:30 today if they are going to today

NWS still has me for 3-7" .  I am very confused as to what to expect.

This Afternoon: Showers likely. Cloudy, with a high near 39. West wind 8 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Tonight: Rain and sleet before 10pm, then rain, snow, and sleet between 10pm and 2am, then snow after 2am. Low around 22. Calm wind becoming northwest 5 to 8 mph in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow and sleet accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

Thursday: Snow, mainly before 4pm. Temperature falling to around 19 by 3pm. Wind chill values between 10 and 15. Northwest wind around 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

Thursday Night: A chance of snow before 7pm. Cloudy during the early evening, then gradual clearing, with a low around 8. Wind chill values between zero and 5. North wind around 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.


TWC has me for 2-6"

hopefully the nowcast will favor us

IMO we are right at now cast time.  This is not your run of the mill LP that will move to the NE and spread moisture into the area.  This is a pretty unique set up, esp for this time of year.  The intense temp gradient is really running the show here.  There are other factors like the upper level jet stregth and placement, and the strength of the waves riding the frontal boundary and the timing of it all etc. that play a huge role in determining where the best forcing will ocur.  However;  after reading through rb's case study it is clear it becomes the sum of all moving parts that determines the outcome to a given area.  Because there are several key players at diff levels of the atmosphere we really are going to have to wait and see how they all begin to develop and interact to really get a sense of who gets what.  Franks map will be dead on for many on here but I can "almost" guarantee that there will be areas that bust high and/or low with how dynamic a set up this will be.

Bill just released his updated snow map...........totals down a whole lot..........2-4 for me. Oh well I'm over this. Bring on Spring, I cant wait to see my grass again

Euro looks great. This is not over. Upper air looks much better at 12z than it did at 00z. Plus, UKIE/EURO have not wavered.

deadrabbit79 wrote:Bill just released his updated snow map...........totals down a whole lot..........2-4 for me.  Oh well  I'm over this.  Bring on Spring, I cant wait to see my grass again

I see..pushed 4-8" Staten Island south, 2-4" north of there, maybe nothing in Orange, Putnam.

deadrabbit79 wrote:Bill just released his updated snow map...........totals down a whole lot..........2-4 for me.  Oh well  I'm over this.  Bring on Spring, I cant wait to see my grass again

I really do hope this is the case. Pity should be taken on those who have hectic jobs out doors during this haha. Last night at work, was a disaster and I really don't need another disaster this week. Slammed from 5pm until 1am, it was BS. I'm tired of the weather and just need calm warmer weather now.

EURO is holding and going to serve!!!

Sroc That was a nice right up for me Very clear and I understood all that you stated Thanks