1st Call Snow Map, March 4th-5th
+39
H.G. Rising
mako460
Artechmetals
HectorO
deadrabbit79
lglickman1
sroc4
Sanchize06
Fededle22
Mathgod55
weatherwatchermom
Grselig
Taffy
mancave25
carvin1079
Nyi1058
devsman
rb924119
Abba701
NjWeatherGuy
Yschiff
SoulSingMG
jimv45
jmanley32
WeatherBob
Math23x7
algae888
amugs
skinsfan1177
oldtimer
Quietace
nutleyblizzard
Dtone
CPcantmeasuresnow
billg315
RJB8525
snow247
Biggin23
Frank_Wx
43 posters
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Re: 1st Call Snow Map, March 4th-5th
EURO is holding and going to serve!!!
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: 1st Call Snow Map, March 4th-5th
Sroc That was a nice right up for me Very clear and I understood all that you stated Thanks
oldtimer- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 1st Call Snow Map, March 4th-5th
I respect Bill but I do not see it - is he hugging the NAM here?? Look at this compilation of model runs at 12Z - red flag when GFS OP is south of GEFS !!
NYC
UKIE 8 PLUS
GEM 6 -8
GEFS 6 -8
RGEM 6-8
EURO 6-8
Ratio`s will be good NW so the gradient may not be as tight as we once thought .
Great turn around from bridge jumping yesterday and this AM .
And the weather channel says 1-3" for me in NNJ.
My administration asked me my opinion and said I heard it was giong to be nothing - that is wish casting on their part.
Cold air rushed in faster than the models can pick it up or it is shown on radar - ala 2002 xmass storm had me raining when it was puking ice and then snow in about 1/2hr timeframe.
Do not doubt the minds on this weather board
Euro 10:1 ratios - many surprises happen at night - usually for the good here!!
NYC
UKIE 8 PLUS
GEM 6 -8
GEFS 6 -8
RGEM 6-8
EURO 6-8
Ratio`s will be good NW so the gradient may not be as tight as we once thought .
Great turn around from bridge jumping yesterday and this AM .
And the weather channel says 1-3" for me in NNJ.
My administration asked me my opinion and said I heard it was giong to be nothing - that is wish casting on their part.
Cold air rushed in faster than the models can pick it up or it is shown on radar - ala 2002 xmass storm had me raining when it was puking ice and then snow in about 1/2hr timeframe.
Do not doubt the minds on this weather board
Euro 10:1 ratios - many surprises happen at night - usually for the good here!!
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AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: 1st Call Snow Map, March 4th-5th
Euro way down on totals from 00z, all came south, unless last nights 00z included what fell last night.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 1st Call Snow Map, March 4th-5th
Fred , I'm with you have no idea what to expect . This year seems like we have been in between storms either too far north or too far south
Artechmetals- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: 1st Call Snow Map, March 4th-5th
Is there a start and finish time for this? Would greatly appreciate it b/c I need to staff my snow removal crew.
mako460- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: 1st Call Snow Map, March 4th-5th
Temperature looks to be an issue on every single one of these maps. When it is able to change from rain to snow will be key to how much we get. IMO, it looks like we're not getting more than 4" in NNJ. I-78 and north will be 2-4".
H.G. Rising- Posts : 19
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Re: 1st Call Snow Map, March 4th-5th
jmanley32 wrote:Euro way down on totals from 00z, all came south, unless last nights 00z included what fell last night.
With ratios Jman: and last nights did include some of what fell
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_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
sroc4- Admin
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Re: 1st Call Snow Map, March 4th-5th
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_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
sroc4- Admin
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Re: 1st Call Snow Map, March 4th-5th
Now I do not think the hiogher ratios will be realized south of Staten Island and maybe the south shore of LI, but N and W of it should look at the second map for sure.
_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
sroc4- Admin
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Re: 1st Call Snow Map, March 4th-5th
Okay so if Euro is right I could get a warning, especially if ratios are 15;1 and the changeover is not too long.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 1st Call Snow Map, March 4th-5th
I feel, for some reason, you mentally need a winter storm warning to validate this storm.. It's snowing in March, take what you can get no matter what watch/warning/advisory you are in...jmanley32 wrote:Okay so if Euro is right I could get a warning, especially if ratios are 15;1 and the changeover is not too long.
Quietace- Meteorologist - Mod
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Re: 1st Call Snow Map, March 4th-5th
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Re: 1st Call Snow Map, March 4th-5th
Not that, ok let me clarify, I am hoping for at least 6 inches, that would be a warning for me. If it goes to a advisory that means likely 2-4 maybe 3-5. So I will speak in totals instead of advisorys ok.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 1st Call Snow Map, March 4th-5th
That map included ratios?
lglickman1- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: 1st Call Snow Map, March 4th-5th
this isn't going to be a big deal except southern areas but Q your right take what you can get in March!
jimv45- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 1st Call Snow Map, March 4th-5th
Frank_Wx wrote:
that looks nice but northern suburbs of city ratios 15:1, sroc mentioned north of SI? And how much of that is rain, like sroc said probably going to be hard to know exact totals because of when the changeover occurs right?
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 1st Call Snow Map, March 4th-5th
12z suite looks very nice, on EURO about on the 9" line imby, will take it in a heartbeat, GEFS good and so is UKIE/GGEM, NAM only bad run.
NjWeatherGuy- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: 1st Call Snow Map, March 4th-5th
I'm literally on pins and needles right now waiting for manhattan to go from the blue WSW color to either purple (I'll cry) or pink (yippeeeee). It's just a matter of some sick WX validation; let me be.
SoulSingMG- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 1st Call Snow Map, March 4th-5th
SoulSingMG wrote:I'm literally on pins and needles right now waiting for manhattan to go from the blue WSW color to either purple (I'll cry) or pink (yippeeeee). It's just a matter of some sick WX validation; let me be.
lol
_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
sroc4- Admin
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Re: 1st Call Snow Map, March 4th-5th
SoulSingMG wrote:I'm literally on pins and needles right now waiting for manhattan to go from the blue WSW color to either purple (I'll cry) or pink (yippeeeee). It's just a matter of some sick WX validation; let me be.
LOL, I'll take the purple, right now I'm just white!
docstox12- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: 1st Call Snow Map, March 4th-5th
docstox12 wrote:SoulSingMG wrote:I'm literally on pins and needles right now waiting for manhattan to go from the blue WSW color to either purple (I'll cry) or pink (yippeeeee). It's just a matter of some sick WX validation; let me be.
LOL, I'll take the purple, right now I'm just white!
The way this winter has been I am Black and Blue!!!!
HEATMISER- Posts : 62
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Re: 1st Call Snow Map, March 4th-5th
I have a sinking suspicion that this is what we have coming to us...
H.G. Rising- Posts : 19
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Re: 1st Call Snow Map, March 4th-5th
Quietace wrote:I feel, for some reason, you mentally need a winter storm warning to validate this storm.. It's snowing in March, take what you can get no matter what watch/warning/advisory you are in...jmanley32 wrote:Okay so if Euro is right I could get a warning, especially if ratios are 15;1 and the changeover is not too long.
Mean...but funny from a 17-year-old. Don't worry JMan he "yells" at me too.
Guest- Guest
Re: 1st Call Snow Map, March 4th-5th
Honestly, everyone needs to stop the imby questions. There are a LOT of variables with this storm, some good, some bad. We also have members from all over the place, so it is difficult to forecast in detail for all. You have a general idea where the accumulations stand, an inch here or there is not a big deal. Keep an eye on radar and temps in your area and let it play out. If there are significant changes to the current thoughts, updates will be made... but you need to relax and enjoy the fact that we have had a great backend to this winter after a slow start! Hoping for a decent amount for those who want it!
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Snowfall winter of 2023-2024 17.5"
Snowfall winter of 2022-2023 6.0"
Snowfall winter of 2021-2022 17.6" 1" sleet 2/25/22
Snowfall winter of 2020-2021 51.1"
Snowfall winter of 2019-2020 8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019 25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018 51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017 45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016 29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015 50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014 66.5"
Dunnzoo- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
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Re: 1st Call Snow Map, March 4th-5th
Warnings south of NYC (already in one), advisories north, NYC itself borderline, up to NWS discretion.
NjWeatherGuy- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: 1st Call Snow Map, March 4th-5th
syosnow94 wrote:Quietace wrote:I feel, for some reason, you mentally need a winter storm warning to validate this storm.. It's snowing in March, take what you can get no matter what watch/warning/advisory you are in...jmanley32 wrote:Okay so if Euro is right I could get a warning, especially if ratios are 15;1 and the changeover is not too long.
Mean...but funny from a 17-year-old. Don't worry JMan he "yells" at me too.
Yup, not gonna start this here, but I have too much going on to let a 17 year old get to me. I am allowed to want what I want and if it doesn't happen it doesn't and like soul said yeah maybe it is some kind of validation feeling I dunno, but who cares.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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