3/20 Spring Snowstorm Observations / Final Call Snow Map

Radar from about State College west looks good. From there east just spotty light returns. Moving due east. I'll put my trust in what sroc4 said for now!!

We already have some good frontogenesis over the area. Once it starts snowing it should come down rather heavily.

syosnow94 wrote:2 things.  

1.  I never said "bust"  I said the radar doesn't look good so I'm not confident about accumulating snows right now.

2. Quietace has to be the most contrarian/negative person on this board when it comes to a snow forecast

Ouch...haha, fair statement though..
Anyway 37 and light snow

2pm HRRR we should all be blitzing

OK, Frank, looking good!

5pm HRRR shows a really heavy swath of snow from southern NY into west NJ

SREFS are a general 3-6" for the area

11am I think is a good start time still

Latest NAM at 4pm...green is 850 line

NAM sim 4pm



1pm H7 VV's



1-5pm seems like the heaviest time frame for heavy snow

Radar filling in and picking up nicely in western PA.

HRRR and SREFS showing a jog north with precip - looks like March 5th storm to me minus the heavy dry air on the north of this.

Once we get the coastal going things swill be interesting

Surface pressures:


925mb


850mb

HAHAHAHA it worked!!! My plan was to plant a seed of doubt so Frank would come out of hibernation and post a bunch of colorful maps to make all us snow weenies happy.

syosnow94 wrote:HAHAHAHA it worked!!!   My plan was to plant a seed of doubt so Frank would come out of hibernation and post a bunch of colorful maps to make all us snow weenies happy.

sroc4 wrote:Surface pressures:


925mb


850mb

Is it just me or does that coastal low look really far south?

Snow has commenced in Hackettstown, NJ.

Lovely.

Frank_Wx wrote:

sroc4 wrote:Surface pressures:


925mb


850mb

Is it just me or does that coastal low look really far south?

Goes to show how you can get a storm with potent upper air energy, favorably positioned jet streaks and being near the baroclinic zone

12z nam is much farther north 4 to 6" for the entire area. the nam is always late to the party. a good sign is most temperatures are no higher than 35 degrees in and around New York City don't think they will go up much more. still need precipitation to come down hard for it to accumulate during the early afternoon

I have been so productive at work the last 2 weeks. Practically MVP.

Today? Not happening. It's snowing.

Latest HRRR for 1pm - NICE

3pm...Madonne

syosnow94 wrote:HAHAHAHA it worked!!!   My plan was to plant a seed of doubt so Frank would come out of hibernation and post a bunch of colorful maps to make all us snow weenies happy.

genius!

Northerly tilt to the storm now on radar. -NAO working its magic

I don't want to let my guard down but I'm starting to believe we even have a chance here up north for a decent snow. Models now ticking a bit north rather than south trend and as Mugs said earlier we don't have that heavy dense cold dry air to our north like we did on the March 5th storm.

I probably just doomed the HV with the KOD.

28.8 waiting for a flake.

Frank_Wx wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:

sroc4 wrote:Surface pressures:


925mb


850mb

Is it just me or does that coastal low look really far south?

Goes to show how you can get a storm with potent upper air energy, favorably positioned jet streaks and being near the baroclinic zone

Exactly Frank. Our last 3 events showed us that beautifully. Ive learned alot studying these set ups. Youll notice there are two areas of LP currently on the meso surface pressure map.
[img][/img]

I think the one over WV ultimately wins and takes over and a single LP forms in the black circle.

BTW looks like 850 is trying to close off.

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:I don't want to let my guard down but I'm starting to believe we even have a chance here up north for a decent snow. Models now ticking a bit north rather than south trend and as Mugs said earlier we don't have that heavy dense cold dry air to our north like we did on the March 5th storm.

I probably just doomed the HV with the KOD.

28.8 waiting for a flake.

Yep, CP, even though it is futile, I still liked the look of that radar with lots of snow to our N and W.

We've got the cold, just need the snow now.Almost here.

37.7 here and I just saw a few flakes falling. Frank's prediction of start time was right on schedule for my area.