Re: Long Range Thread 8.0

[nutleyblizzard]

This from Isotherm on El Nino

Tropical convective forcing has generally congregated around 160-180W over the past week [continued conducive forcing overall].

Date Line baby - woop woop. This is where the forcing looks to be/will set up - great news.



Evolution the past week

Although I'm willing to wait and see where we stand in a month as far as anomaly placements are concerned, I'm beginning to grow increasingly confident that we will see an above normal snowfall season if not historic. I wonder what Frank's thoughts are. Guess we will wait till November 1st.

[skinsfan1177]

Hearing models GFS and Euro both have backed off the blocking.

[Frank_Wx]

Hearing models GFS and Euro both have backed off the blocking.

They have indeed. Uber +NAO now to start next week instead of having the trough over us like models originally progged.

What was supposed to be the Aleutian trough ended up staying further west into Asia. There is still ridging near the EPO region but the +NAO allows the SE ridge to flex it's muscles a bit. It's not an overly warm look but Def above average. I think Sroc warned this could happen, kudos to him.

[skinsfan1177]

Not sure if this should be in this thread What are temps looking like for this upcoming weekend

[Frank_Wx]

Northern Asia forecasted snow depth from EURO

[amugs]

For what it is worth at this point,. I m guessing it will change as we get closer to December

[amugs]

NICE GROWTH!!!!
YESTYERDAY


LAST WEEK -7 DAYS EARLIER

[Frank_Wx]

For what it is worth at this point,. I m guessing it will change as we get closer to December

That's textbook El Nino looking. I like forecasts that do not go solely off of El Nino. Other factors to consider.

[Frank_Wx]

A lot of talk about Nino region 3.4 not being as warm as the eastern regions. If you look at the +ENSO progression from a broader scale, you'll notice the slow but steady rise. Region 1.2 cooled off during the summer but re-surged the last few weeks. I have a feeling it's going to go back in decline soon.

[amugs]

This............. westerly winds bringing the goods to the dateline - very nice and the east propagation has slowed considerably so the forcing is setting up in the 3.4 and 4 (dateline area) - this supports or Franks number support this and will do so even further.

[amugs]

A lot of talk about Nino region 3.4 not being as warm as the eastern regions. If you look at the +ENSO progression from a broader scale, you'll notice the slow but steady rise. Region 1.2 cooled off during the summer but re-surged the last few weeks. I have a feeling it's going to go back in decline soon.  

Frank - it reads from 1.2 , 3 3.4 and 4 across the top where you marked 3.4. May want to note that on your chart for information/clarification purposes. Good data.
That slight spije in 1.2 was from a kelvin wave I believe that hit in late August - it shows up usually about 4-6 later in the data of sst.

[amugs]

CHIA PET GROWTH IN CANADA!!!

[Frank_Wx]

This............. westerly winds bringing the goods to the dateline - very nice and the east propagation has slowed considerably so the forcing is setting up in the 3.4 and 4 (dateline area) - this supports or Franks number support this and will do so even further.

Good post. This will surely bring some "zest" to the 3.4 region

[nutleyblizzard]

Originally my thinking was that this winter was going to be a back loaded one- typical of an El Nino year. It could still happen. However lately I've been leaning more towards an "end to end" type winter. Reason being is the anomalies that seem to be lining up for us like Pacific forcing by the dateline and increasing signs of a prevalent -AO developing. We'll know for sure in the next month when things shake out. Interesting times indeed.

[skinsfan1177]

I hope the nao will cooperate this year and recently the models where showing blocking now have backed off just like last year.

[nutleyblizzard]

I hope the nao will cooperate this year and recently the models where showing blocking now have backed off just like last year.

The NAO has always been the wildcard as far as forecasting is concerned. Very hard to predict. The ideal setup though is to have a transient NAO where it flips back and forth from positive to negative. Often you see a big storm when that occurs. As far as the -AO, I'm pretty confident that will occur which in itself would be a big help.

[Guest]

Hey people. Surfing the internet I came upon this very detailed and well written winter outlook by some girl called Rebecca. Take your time and read it. It looks really well done and has tons of cool graphics and easy to read charts.

http://wx4cast.blogspot.com/

[nutleyblizzard]

For anyone interested. I'm not one of them...http://theatlantic.com/notes/2015/10/winter-storm-yolo/410287/

[amugs]

2002-03 analog being discussed as a parallel to this winter incoming as is 77-78. Need to see what those 500 mpas and ssts looked like.

Agree with Nutely's post above on the NAO and AO - I feel the July correlation for this indicator will come to fruition this winter - at least I hope!

[amugs]

For anyone interested. I'm not one of them...http://theatlantic.com/notes/2015/10/winter-storm-yolo/410287/

Goliath- this one has beast written all over it!!

[nutleyblizzard]

Hey people.  Surfing the internet I came upon this very detailed and well written winter outlook by some girl called Rebecca.  Take your time and read it.  It looks really well done and has tons of cool graphics and easy to read charts.

http://wx4cast.blogspot.com/

Nice read. Do you think Frank would suspend me if I borrowed Rebecca's avatar?!

[amugs]

Hey people.  Surfing the internet I came upon this very detailed and well written winter outlook by some girl called Rebecca.  Take your time and read it.  It looks really well done and has tons of cool graphics and easy to read charts.

http://wx4cast.blogspot.com/

Excellent and well well explained read here Syo - thanks for sharing!! And more so I hope her predictions come to fruition!!

[skinsfan1177]

A Great read everything seems to be going in the right direction but I want to see how things go in November.

[amugs]

Basin Wide Equatorial Nino

[rb924119]

Just thought I'd post this here for those interested:

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0Byod2Sk27yNYclZMUmQ5dmtIUXc/view?usp=sharing

This is not my work, but that of Joe Bastardi who works for WeatherBell. It's short, sweet, and adds even more hope for this upcoming season. I personally hold the UKMET as one of my favorite models, but am unfamiliar with its longer range prediction performance. That said, whispers from a guy that I work with were along the lines of that it's usually pretty decent. Again, I can't say one way or the other. Interesting none the less....

[jmanley32]

So from what I am seeing here we could be looking at a slow start but a possible blockbuster winter come JFM? Is there still a storm signal for the end of OCtober? Seems that tropical system disappeared. Models been all over the place in the LR, as to be expected. Goliath, yes that has roidzilla (dare I say frankzilla, hopeful lol) attached to it for me already lol, but so silly to name winter storms. One of my concerns is the fact that Juno did such a flip last year that if we had another projection even right up to the event it will not be taken seriously, that could really mess things up IF its not taken seriously.

[jimv45]

Been hearing that this winter looks promising for non snow lovers why is everyone so excited about this winter that these so called experts say otherwise? But I trust this site so hope is there.

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