01/23/16 Storm Update #6 - Final Call

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:

sroc4 wrote:My final call.  Win lose or draw I have to say its been quite a ride.  I feel like the anxiety over the last 2 days has been like when you are strapped into the seat of a roller coaster...click click click...up the hill butterflys and nerves about whats to come.  Well now boys and girls we no longer have to feel the anxiety of what is to come...we are just about over the top so sit back and get your hands up above our heads and enjoy the ride!!!  

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So people in the HV are getting 2-4 or 6-10? No 4.1 to 5.9 areas. Seems extreme.

Ahh crap CP. I didn't see that. I raced home from work to update things and missed it. Leave it to the HV guy to spot that. Lol. And now I'm mobile waiting for my pizza and garlic knots. Son of a....

jimv45 wrote:just got back looking at the last GFS looked good hope up now

It had All of Orange County in 12-16 range. I'd be very happy with that but of course I have my doubts. I'd take 8-10 and be satisfied after all the ups and downs of this storm.

yea it got me close more like 8-10 and yes that would be nice!!!

sroc4 wrote:

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:

sroc4 wrote:My final call.  Win lose or draw I have to say its been quite a ride.  I feel like the anxiety over the last 2 days has been like when you are strapped into the seat of a roller coaster...click click click...up the hill butterflys and nerves about whats to come.  Well now boys and girls we no longer have to feel the anxiety of what is to come...we are just about over the top so sit back and get your hands up above our heads and enjoy the ride!!!  

" />

So people in the HV are getting 2-4 or 6-10? No 4.1 to 5.9 areas. Seems extreme.

Ahh crap CP. I didn't see that. I raced home from work to update things and missed it. Leave it to the HV guy to spot that. Lol. And now I'm mobile waiting for my pizza and garlic knots. Son of a....

Scott. Don't stress my man I was just joking about it, I know what your map intended. Can't thank all of you for all the work you guys do. It's just incredible.

NWS STILL not convinced HV does okay. Still only a winter storm watch for max 6 inches.

FWIW the weather channel just upped me to 9-13 inches. Nervous times in the CP household tonight.

Frank, Sroc4 Great Jobs. Thanks for all you do here. I know Devman kind of answered my question but I'm telling you guys there is no way we don't see ratios of at least 13:1 even on the coast tonight.

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:NWS STILL not convinced HV does okay. Still only a winter storm watch for max 6 inches.

FWIW the weather channel just upped me to 9-13 inches. Nervous times in the CP household tonight.

Honestly, I think our area is looking very good for 6-10. Maybe even a bit more than that. We'll see.

Just have to watch how far north the snow gets, we are right on the edge.

Frank do you think the north trend may continue? I just looked at the current obs trough alignment it looked like it went negative to me.

has anyone checked out Joe coffii Facebook page he Think .  the snow totals might go up more including northI of  our area

Eerily calm and quiet here in coastal Ocean County. They've begun evacuating people near the water in multiple towns in OC.
First flakes just began to fall here....

frank 638 wrote:has anyone checked out Joe coffii Facebook page he Think .  the snow totals might go up more including northI of  our area

I like Cioffi

syosnow94 wrote:Frank, Sroc4 Great Jobs.  Thanks for all you do here.  I know Devman kind of answered my question but I'm telling you guys there is no way we don't see ratios of at least 13:1 even on the coast tonight.  

Along the coast and LI 850mb and 925mb temps will be pretty cold in the range of -3 to -6 through the duration of the storm. What's going to prevent ratios from being anything more than 10:1 is two things. 

1. The wind. Dendrites are not doing to be there best when winds will be sustained over 25-30mph. Soundings do not show the greatest snow growth. 

2. Surface temps may stay above freezing. The snow will accumulate, but the east wind off the warm Atlantic keeps surface temps above freezing. See map below and the 32 line. Notice how it's north and west of coast and LI during the height of the storm. 



3. This will not be a well organized low. It's only going to get down to 985mb or so. Dynamics are enhanced thanks to track of the 500mb low allowing the PVA to wrap into the area, but frontogenesis is expected to be west of the coast into central NJ and eastern PA.

nutleyblizzard wrote:Frank do you think the north trend may continue? I just looked at the current obs trough  alignment it looked like it went negative to me.

Still neutral, but I do think there may be a small bump north on the 00z tonight. 

nujerzeedevil wrote:Eerily calm and quiet here in coastal Ocean County. They've begun evacuating people near the water in multiple towns in OC.
First flakes just began to fall here....

Have fun. I encourage everyone to post picturees!!!

I have been "lurking" since the old Channel 7 days....and I just wanted to say THANK YOU for all that you guys do!  You all do such a fantastic job of keeping everyone updated and informed!  My husband works for the Town of Brookhaven, here in Suffolk County, and he even asks "What is Frank and everyone saying"...... I think he even gets the trucks set up based on what you say.  I even have everyone at my job hooked on your website.  Thank you again so very much and keep up the AMAZING work you all do!

Frank_Wx wrote:

syosnow94 wrote:Frank, Sroc4 Great Jobs.  Thanks for all you do here.  I know Devman kind of answered my question but I'm telling you guys there is no way we don't see ratios of at least 13:1 even on the coast tonight.  

Along the coast and LI 850mb and 925mb temps will be pretty cold in the range of -3 to -6 through the duration of the storm. What's going to prevent ratios from being anything more than 10:1 is two things. 

1. The wind. Dendrites are not doing to be there best when winds will be sustained over 25-30mph. Soundings do not show the greatest snow growth. 

2. Surface temps may stay above freezing. The snow will accumulate, but the east wind off the warm Atlantic keeps surface temps above freezing. See map below and the 32 line. Notice how it's north and west of coast and LI during the height of the storm. 



3. This will not be a well organized low. It's only going to get down to 985mb or so. Dynamics are enhanced thanks to track of the 500mb low allowing the PVA to wrap into the area, but frontogenesis is expected to be west of the coast into central NJ and eastern PA.

Great write-up Frank so I guess for me it's close whether we see mixing or not but as the storm pulls away it should change back over

Thanks guys, I love you guys

Frank_Wx wrote:

nujerzeedevil wrote:Eerily calm and quiet here in coastal Ocean County. They've begun evacuating people near the water in multiple towns in OC.
First flakes just began to fall here....

Have fun. I encourage everyone to post picturees!!!

Oh I certainly plan on it Frank!! Fire going outside, case of beer, bottle of bourbon. Life is good sir

Hi all - check out the RAP model and the surface wind gusts. 50mph going well inland into NJ!!! If I lose power I will not be happy 

Shannon1829 wrote:I have been "lurking" since the old Channel 7 days....and I just wanted to say THANK YOU for all that you guys do!  You all do such a fantastic job of keeping everyone updated and informed!  My husband works for the Town of Brookhaven, here in Suffolk County, and he even asks "What is Frank and everyone saying"...... I think he even gets the trucks set up based on what you say.  I even have everyone at my job hooked on your website.  Thank you again so very much and keep up the AMAZING work you all do!

Thanks for following Shannon. Glad we can help!

nujerzeedevil wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:

nujerzeedevil wrote:Eerily calm and quiet here in coastal Ocean County. They've begun evacuating people near the water in multiple towns in OC.
First flakes just began to fall here....

Have fun. I encourage everyone to post picturees!!!

Oh I certainly plan on it Frank!! Fire going outside, case of beer, bottle of bourbon. Life is good sir

Wow, I need to come over.

The 12z NAM is so impressive. I said the brunt of the storm will be 1-7 but it very would could be 11am-7pm. The band's coming off the ocean are INSANE

I'm giddy right now. And I don't say that often.

Even I'm excited, and I'm north of the city.

Sometimes I use 3-hour snow total increments to see what the snow rates could be. Purple in NW NJ and eastern PA suggest 2" per hour between 1-4pm tomorrow 

One thing that's nice to see on the radar is the moisture on the coast is moving north and not east at all. It's always nice to see the actual verifying the prediction..

Hey does anyone know what model is used for those point forecasts on the NWS weather site?

sorry wrong area for post