01/23/16 Storm Update #6 - Final Call

Hey does anyone know what model is used for those point forecasts on the NWS weather site?

sorry wrong area for post

So far H5 still has yet to close off to 540 dam. That said, the only models that I can find that were accurate with this are the NAVY, CMC and SREF mean. That makes for an interesting blend lmao

SREFS!

Just want to say, feels so good to finally share a storm with you guys after the brutal start to winter. This should be the biggest snow storm during an EL nino year. Will be drinking right along side you guys. Thanks for the awesome job u all do. Especially you Frank. U are famous in my math department after the last 3 years. lol

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:

sroc4 wrote:

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:

sroc4 wrote:My final call.  Win lose or draw I have to say its been quite a ride.  I feel like the anxiety over the last 2 days has been like when you are strapped into the seat of a roller coaster...click click click...up the hill butterflys and nerves about whats to come.  Well now boys and girls we no longer have to feel the anxiety of what is to come...we are just about over the top so sit back and get your hands up above our heads and enjoy the ride!!!  

" />

So people in the HV are getting 2-4 or 6-10? No 4.1 to 5.9 areas. Seems extreme.

Ahh crap CP. I didn't see that. I raced home from work to update things and missed it. Leave it to the HV guy to spot that. Lol. And now I'm mobile waiting for my pizza and garlic knots. Son of a....

Scott. Don't stress my man I was just joking about it, I know what your map intended. Can't thank all of you for all the work you guys do. It's just incredible.

I know Cp.  And I really appreciate the thanks.  I of course had to go back and fix it. I do have to say I am a bit drained.  I have two bottles of my favorite cab (Estancia, and Meiomi) breathing while I wait for my wife to get the kids down.  The fire is roaring, and Im so ready for it to start.  I am of course looking forward to the storm itself, but one of my favorite times of the storm will be Sunday morning.  I plan on being up and going for a walk in my neighborhood before anyone else is up.  My avatar says it all.  

Bill if you are reading I am officially ready to point out that I nailed January 22nd for the first Godzilla back in November at the GTG!!!

rb924119 wrote: So far H5 still has yet to close off to 540 dam. That said, the only models that I can find that were accurate with this are the NAVY, CMC and SREF mean. That makes for an interesting blend lmao

What a trio. Scary too. 

snow247 wrote:SREFS!

UHMMMM WOW!!! 

devsman wrote:Just want to say, feels so good to finally share a storm with you guys after the brutal start to winter. This should be the biggest snow storm during an EL nino year. Will be drinking right along side you guys. Thanks for the awesome job u all do. Especially you Frank. U are famous in my math department after the last 3 years. lol

Good cause I SUCKED at math.

Thanks to all the major guys (you know who you are) for your expert analysis and pure enjoyment for the weather. I warned my wife about this storm way before the networks announced it and, thanks to you all, I am prepared with enough food, beer, wine and alcohol to make it a week. Just waiting for the first flakes to fall.

sroc4 wrote:

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:

sroc4 wrote:

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:

sroc4 wrote:My final call.  Win lose or draw I have to say its been quite a ride.  I feel like the anxiety over the last 2 days has been like when you are strapped into the seat of a roller coaster...click click click...up the hill butterflys and nerves about whats to come.  Well now boys and girls we no longer have to feel the anxiety of what is to come...we are just about over the top so sit back and get your hands up above our heads and enjoy the ride!!!  

" />

So people in the HV are getting 2-4 or 6-10? No 4.1 to 5.9 areas. Seems extreme.

Ahh crap CP. I didn't see that. I raced home from work to update things and missed it. Leave it to the HV guy to spot that. Lol. And now I'm mobile waiting for my pizza and garlic knots. Son of a....

Scott. Don't stress my man I was just joking about it, I know what your map intended. Can't thank all of you for all the work you guys do. It's just incredible.

I know Cp.  And I really appreciate the thanks.  I of course had to go back and fix it.  I do have to say I am a bit drained.  I have two bottles of my favorite cab (Estancia, and Meiomi) breathing while I wait for my wife to get the kids down.  The fire is roaring, and Im so ready for it to start.  I am of course looking forward to the storm itself, but one of my favorite times of the storm will be Sunday morning.  I plan on being up and going for a walk in my neighborhood before anyone else is up.  My avatar says it all.  

Bill if you are reading I am officially ready to point out that I nailed January 22nd for the first Godzilla back in November at the GTG!!!

I REMEMBER THAT!!! Dude go play the lottery hahaha

Finally off of work and home with a fridge full of beer. Tracking this one has been frustrating at the least, but now it's time to sit back and enjoy watching it unfold. And to add to the enjoyment, we get the weekend to do it! Excellent job by our meteorologists, admins, and moderators here. Virtual cheers to all.

devsman wrote:Just want to say, feels so good to finally share a storm with you guys after the brutal start to winter. This should be the biggest snow storm during an EL nino year. Will be drinking right along side you guys. Thanks for the awesome job u all do. Especially you Frank. U are famous in my math department after the last 3 years. lol

devsman Frank is famous all over the NE.

Yeah Frank, pretty funny, because you have three models, with the same H5 start (now) but three entirely different evolutions ahaha SREF mean is the wet and northern extreme, CMC is the dry and southern extreme, and the NAVY is in the middle of those two lmao I'm in the process of sifting through the data and making my final call as we speak lol

Fededle22 wrote:Thanks to all the major guys (you know who you are) for your expert analysis and pure enjoyment for the weather. I warned my wife about this storm way before the networks announced it and, thanks to you all, I am prepared with enough food, beer, wine and alcohol to make it a week. Just waiting for the first flakes to fall.

No problem man. Anyone I speak with the first thing out of their mouth is they bought the alcolhol. 

#priorities

Truck is gassed up. full up with salt and ready to rock...

Its time to make the Donuts... will post pics when possible...

sroc4 wrote:

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:

sroc4 wrote:

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:

sroc4 wrote:My final call.  Win lose or draw I have to say its been quite a ride.  I feel like the anxiety over the last 2 days has been like when you are strapped into the seat of a roller coaster...click click click...up the hill butterflys and nerves about whats to come.  Well now boys and girls we no longer have to feel the anxiety of what is to come...we are just about over the top so sit back and get your hands up above our heads and enjoy the ride!!!  

" />

So people in the HV are getting 2-4 or 6-10? No 4.1 to 5.9 areas. Seems extreme.

Ahh crap CP. I didn't see that. I raced home from work to update things and missed it. Leave it to the HV guy to spot that. Lol. And now I'm mobile waiting for my pizza and garlic knots. Son of a....

Scott. Don't stress my man I was just joking about it, I know what your map intended. Can't thank all of you for all the work you guys do. It's just incredible.

I know Cp.  And I really appreciate the thanks.  I of course had to go back and fix it.  I do have to say I am a bit drained.  I have two bottles of my favorite cab (Estancia, and Meiomi) breathing while I wait for my wife to get the kids down.  The fire is roaring, and Im so ready for it to start.  I am of course looking forward to the storm itself, but one of my favorite times of the storm will be Sunday morning.  I plan on being up and going for a walk in my neighborhood before anyone else is up.  My avatar says it all.  

Bill if you are reading I am officially ready to point out that I nailed January 22nd for the first Godzilla back in November at the GTG!!!

Haha. I am reading and you are right. Congrats! You win our informal GTG contest. I went out of my way to be "vague" about it earlier this weeks so as not to jinx you!

rb924119 wrote:Yeah Frank, pretty funny, because you have three models, with the same H5 start (now) but three entirely different evolutions ahaha SREF mean is the wet and northern extreme, CMC is the dry and southern extreme, and the NAVY is in the middle of those two lmao I'm in the process of sifting through the data and making my final call as we speak lol

Does H5 trough seem to be going negative faster to you? It's neutral now. I thought some models had it positive in this time frame.

crippo84 wrote:Finally off of work and home with a fridge full of beer. Tracking this one has been frustrating at the least, but now it's time to sit back and enjoy watching it unfold. And to add to the enjoyment, we get the weekend to do it! Excellent job by our meteorologists, admins, and moderators here. Virtual cheers to all.

You're welcome! 

dad4twoboys wrote:Truck is gassed up. full up with salt and ready to rock...

Its time to make the Donuts... will post pics when possible...

Boston Kreme ftw

Is negative at this point good or bad?

If the H5 closes off quicker, does that effect the duration of the storm, snow totals, or both?

Wow, NWS may raise totals. They're just waiting for the 21Z SREFS which already came out. Now they're waiting for the 00z NAM 

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SNOW IS SPREADING NEWD AT AROUND 28 KT PER RADAR TOWARDS THE
REGION FROM PA AND NJ. THIS BRINGS THE SNOW INTO THE CITY AND
NERN NJ ABOUT 9PM. DRY AIR IS IN PLACE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS. MOST OF THE STEADY AND ACCUMULATING SNOW AFT
MIDNIGHT MOST AREAS BECAUSE OF THIS ATTM. WRT THE STORM
OVERALL...THE 18Z GFS DID COME IN FURTHER N...SO WILL BE
AWAITING THE 21Z SREF PLUS 00Z NAM. NEXT UPDATE MAY BE CLOSER TO
1045 PM TO ALLOW FOR A PEAK AT THE 00Z GFS.

ANALYSIS OF GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN/NAM INDICATES A FASTER ONSET OF
SNOW TONIGHT. EXPECT SNOW TO DEVELOP FROM SW TO NORTHEAST TONIGHT.

POTENT TROUGH AND SFC LOW PIVOTS EAST...WITH LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENING RAPIDLY OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT.

EXPECT SNOW ACCUMS TO RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES NEAR THE COAST TO
LITTLE ACCUMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR BY SUNRISE.

lglickman1 wrote:Is negative at this point good or bad?

Fededle22 wrote:If the H5 closes off quicker, does that effect the duration of the storm, snow totals, or both?

Negative would draw the surface low closer to the coast. And yes, duration would be longer.

We can't forget what got us to this point! Huge Atlantic trough buckling the low and allowing the eastern US trough to amplify and go negative. Also some east based blocking  

Frank_Wx wrote:

rb924119 wrote:Yeah Frank, pretty funny, because you have three models, with the same H5 start (now) but three entirely different evolutions ahaha SREF mean is the wet and northern extreme, CMC is the dry and southern extreme, and the NAVY is in the middle of those two lmao I'm in the process of sifting through the data and making my final call as we speak lol

Does H5 trough seem to be going negative faster to you? It's neutral now. I thought some models had it positive in this time frame.

Honestly, it's hard for me to tell. If you look above the "pinch point" where the mouth of the trough is, that looks positively tilted to me, but if you look at the base it looks neutral, I'd agree. I don't know how this will play out; maybe if the mouth stays positive it will prevent H5 from truly closing off and strengthening, at which point EVERYBODY will get dumped on, because it will allow the entire system to remain just progressive enough that the bottom can never really fully wrap itself up beneath it, but the flow out the the neutrally tilted base will allow the low to parallel the coast (through the column) instead of escaping to sea as quickly. I don't know.

21Z SREFS ain't playing around 

HRRR snow map - and it's still snowing after this frame

Frank_Wx wrote:Hi all - check out the RAP model and the surface wind gusts. 50mph going well inland into NJ!!! If I lose power I will not be happy 

Is this at all reliable, it has some pretty serious winds into my area too, looks around 45-50kts wow. And btw those are kts so its more like 60mph by you. maybe 50 by me.

Channel.12 still has me 4-8" what a fn joke they are!

Hahahaha.

Frank great map and awesome job this week the stirm, fricking exhausting as all hell but kudos to you and the rest of our family..
We got er done whew now let sit back and enjoy the white gold from big Momma!!!