Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)
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Re: Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)
I feel its extremely dependent on precipitation intensity. Also, looking at the RAP/HRRR, if the changeover occurs prior to sunrise, surface temperatures will have the ability to cooler easier without any incoming solar radiation, lessening wasted QPF. A 5am changeover is more favorable rather than a 7am changeoversroc4 wrote:Latest HRRR valid 6am tomorrow morning. People are going to be very shocked by this system. I really dont think temps are goiong to hold down accumulations that much
Last edited by Quietace on Thu Feb 04, 2016 4:36 pm; edited 1 time in total
Quietace- Meteorologist - Mod
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Re: Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)
sroc4 wrote:Latest HRRR valid 6am tomorrow morning. People are going to be very shocked by this system. I really dont think temps are goiong to hold down accumulations that much
Wow beautiful but uggggly for a drive into city.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)
The latest GFS has 1.00 qpf for NYC
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Re: Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)
18z GFS precipitation
http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=280482
http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=280482
NjWeatherGuy- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)
Pushing the 1.00 line out by me, wow...
NjWeatherGuy- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)
CAN U SAY NW TREND MADONNE!!
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amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)
Been trending to a deeper and more consolidated LP system riding along that sharper trough..
http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2016020418&time=INSTANT&var=PRMSL&hour=021
http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2016020418&time=INSTANT&var=PRMSL&hour=021
NjWeatherGuy- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)
18z RGEM snow map, 4" line by me, 6" near the city
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/rgem/2016020418/rgem_asnow_neus_11.png
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/rgem/2016020418/rgem_asnow_neus_11.png
NjWeatherGuy- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)
Quietace wrote:I feel its extremely dependent on precipitation intensity. Also, looking at the RAP/HRRR, if the changeover occurs prior to sunrise, surface temperatures will have the ability to cooler easier without any incoming solar radiation, lessening wasted QPF. A 5am changeover is more favorable rather than a 7am changeoversroc4 wrote:Latest HRRR valid 6am tomorrow morning. People are going to be very shocked by this system. I really dont think temps are goiong to hold down accumulations that much
Great Points. I believe sunrise is around 7am. I am pretty confident based on what Im seeing that the changeover happens before that for most areas. Its going to be a great now cast
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sroc4- Admin
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Re: Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)
Is it safe to say changeover between 4-6 am for my area dinner north you go.
skinsfan1177- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)
And is this rain that's going on now part of the same system
skinsfan1177- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)
sroc4 wrote:Quietace wrote:I feel its extremely dependent on precipitation intensity. Also, looking at the RAP/HRRR, if the changeover occurs prior to sunrise, surface temperatures will have the ability to cooler easier without any incoming solar radiation, lessening wasted QPF. A 5am changeover is more favorable rather than a 7am changeoversroc4 wrote:Latest HRRR valid 6am tomorrow morning. People are going to be very shocked by this system. I really dont think temps are goiong to hold down accumulations that much
Great Points. I believe sunrise is around 7am. I am pretty confident based on what Im seeing that the changeover happens before that for most areas. Its going to be a great now cast
Latest HRRR for around 2am tonight
http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=280481
NjWeatherGuy- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)
rgem 18z and gfs 18z...
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)
The changeover will take place from 2am to 4am from west to east. 3am around NYC
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Re: Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)
skinsfan1177 wrote:And is this rain that's going on now part of the same system
This rain is rain via the frontal boundary. The LP center is just starting to develop along the same boundary but way down south. As the LP approaches it will enhance the movement of the cold air into the area
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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
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sroc4- Admin
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Re: Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)
do you think the roads will be wet or snow coverd because its been warm for couple days
frank 638- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)
My concern is school tom morning..Lee Goldberg has us in the 3-6 range, but wonder if they see rain to start if they will call the day...
weatherwatchermom- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)
21z RAP QPF
http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=RAP&grid=255&model_yyyy=2016&model_mm=02&model_dd=04&model_init_hh=21&fhour=18¶meter=PCPIN&level=18&unit=HR&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false
http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=RAP&grid=255&model_yyyy=2016&model_mm=02&model_dd=04&model_init_hh=21&fhour=18¶meter=PCPIN&level=18&unit=HR&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false
NjWeatherGuy- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)
weatherwatchermom wrote:My concern is school tom morning..Lee Goldberg has us in the 3-6 range, but wonder if they see rain to start if they will call the day...
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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
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WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
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sroc4- Admin
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Re: Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)
May need to shift each of those to the left. With the city and LI being 6-8" possible if these trends continue.sroc4 wrote:weatherwatchermom wrote:My concern is school tom morning..Lee Goldberg has us in the 3-6 range, but wonder if they see rain to start if they will call the day...
NjWeatherGuy- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)
Frontal boundary hanging back and GOM moisture pumping
http://climate.cod.edu/janis/satellite/reg/index.php?type=usa-wv-48
http://climate.cod.edu/janis/satellite/reg/index.php?type=usa-wv-48
NjWeatherGuy- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)
NjWeatherGuy wrote:May need to shift each of those to the left. With the city and LI being 6-8" possible if these trends continue.sroc4 wrote:weatherwatchermom wrote:My concern is school tom morning..Lee Goldberg has us in the 3-6 range, but wonder if they see rain to start if they will call the day...
Yeah I am going to update my snow map when I get home from work. I have to expand my 3-6 west. I like his 3-6" zone I just may add the 6-8 out east. No sure yet. Worried the changeover lower ratio factor may come into play.
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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
sroc4- Admin
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Re: Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)
sroc4 wrote:NjWeatherGuy wrote:May need to shift each of those to the left. With the city and LI being 6-8" possible if these trends continue.sroc4 wrote:weatherwatchermom wrote:My concern is school tom morning..Lee Goldberg has us in the 3-6 range, but wonder if they see rain to start if they will call the day...
Yeah I am going to update my snow map when I get home from work. I have to expand my 3-6 west. I like his 3-6" zone I just may add the 6-8 out east. No sure yet. Worried the changeover lower ratio factor may come into play.
I think the changeover lower factor ratio is more of a factor SE of 95, most models show precip as snow by 1am ish in my neck of the woods and it could take quite a few more hours for the line to sag south and east to reach the coast. Overall the enhanced qpf will make up for it there but the latest models bringing nearly 1" into my area enhances totals NW as well.
NjWeatherGuy- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)
this from a pretty good met on another board. he always tells it like it is. gets under peoples skin sometimes but never hypes anything.
"there is an unstable layer on gfs bufkit. i think we get thunder snow"
that would be great!!! scott and frank what are you're thoughts on this?
"there is an unstable layer on gfs bufkit. i think we get thunder snow"
that would be great!!! scott and frank what are you're thoughts on this?
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)
Any thoughts on a 1:30 flight tomorrow afternoon? Serious impacts to air travel?
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Re: Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)
I know exactly who your talking about lolalgae888 wrote:this from a pretty good met on another board. he always tells it like it is. gets under peoples skin sometimes but never hypes anything.
"there is an unstable layer on gfs bufkit. i think we get thunder snow"
that would be great!!! scott and frank what are you're thoughts on this?
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