2016 Spring Snowstorm: Observations & Snow Map

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2016 Spring Snowstorm: Observations & Snow Map

Post by Frank_Wx on Sat Mar 19, 2016 10:46 pm

A surface low is going to develop in the southeast and track up the coast crossing the BM. As it does so, a swath of snow will spread from NJ through NYC and southern New England. On and off rain and snow showers are expected Sunday. By mid to late afternoon, any rain should change to snow and pick up in intensity as we go through the night. By nightfall the surface low should also deepen and throw back heavier snow rates. This will not be a major storm like models originally depicted, but it should be a decent one for most of Long Island into Boston. It will be nice to see some white covering the landscapes again!

Here is the snow map I went with. A last minute west trend this afternoon helped push the 3-6" amounts further west into NJ. There is lots of PVA within the trough but it will remain slightly positively tilted. The lack of consolidation of the upper energy within the base of the trough is one reason why the surface low remains unorganized / weak. There also is no phase with the northern branch.

Start time on the map is when I believe precip will change to all snow and pick up in intensity. Rain and snow showers are possible as early as 10am tomorrow morning.



Enjoy the snow. Should be a fun one to track.

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Re: 2016 Spring Snowstorm: Observations & Snow Map

Post by algae888 on Sat Mar 19, 2016 10:55 pm

rgem held it's ground li special...



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Re: 2016 Spring Snowstorm: Observations & Snow Map

Post by algae888 on Sat Mar 19, 2016 10:57 pm

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Re: 2016 Spring Snowstorm: Observations & Snow Map

Post by Vinnydula on Sat Mar 19, 2016 11:00 pm

Start time?
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Re: 2016 Spring Snowstorm: Observations & Snow Map

Post by Frank_Wx on Sat Mar 19, 2016 11:00 pm

Vinnydula wrote:Start time?

It is on the map

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Re: 2016 Spring Snowstorm: Observations & Snow Map

Post by weatherwatchermom on Sat Mar 19, 2016 11:06 pm

Frank..thank you for the map(forgot to originally state)why do you think the tv mets are underrating this storm..they make it seem like its only a tip of long island storm...and do you think it is strange..were is syosnow94-jim..not heard from him this storm..this is in his back yard..hope he is ok...(is this part banter)


Last edited by weatherwatchermom on Sat Mar 19, 2016 11:21 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Re: 2016 Spring Snowstorm: Observations & Snow Map

Post by frank 638 on Sat Mar 19, 2016 11:14 pm

Frank excellent post and map u made let's hope for the best snow wise

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Re: 2016 Spring Snowstorm: Observations & Snow Map

Post by Frank_Wx on Sat Mar 19, 2016 11:21 pm

weatherwatchermom wrote:Frank.. why do you think the tv mets are underrating this storm..they make it seem like its only a tip of long island storm...and do you think it is strange..were is syosnow94-jim..not heard from him this storm..

Some believe the snow will not stick at all - even if it does fall at night. Others are not sold on the west trend that began at 12z today. To be honest, 500mb is not the greatest. I rather people be over prepared than under prepared that is why I rather be on the bullish end. I do feel pretty confident in the low end totals being achieved.

I am not sure where James is.

frank 638 wrote:Frank excellent post and map u made let's hope for the best snow wise

Thank you.

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Re: 2016 Spring Snowstorm: Observations & Snow Map

Post by weatherwatchermom on Sat Mar 19, 2016 11:23 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:
weatherwatchermom wrote:Frank.. why do you think the tv mets are underrating this storm..they make it seem like its only a tip of long island storm...and do you think it is strange..were is syosnow94-jim..not heard from him this storm..

Some believe the snow will not stick at all - even if it does fall at night. Others are not sold on the west trend that began at 12z today. To be honest, 500mb is not the greatest. I rather people be over prepared than under prepared that is why I rather be on the bullish end. I do feel pretty confident in the low end totals being achieved.

I am not sure where James is.

frank 638 wrote:Frank excellent post and map u made let's hope for the best snow wise

Thank you.

thank you..I think the same way you do...better to be a little over prepared than be caught in a bad spot..thank you and happy tracking..
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Re: 2016 Spring Snowstorm: Observations & Snow Map

Post by Frank_Wx on Sat Mar 19, 2016 11:24 pm


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Snow Accumulation Archive
2013-2014: 62.1"
2014-2015: 56.0"
2015-2016: 34.0"
2016-2017: 19.0"

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CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
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Re: 2016 Spring Snowstorm: Observations & Snow Map

Post by sroc4 on Sat Mar 19, 2016 11:36 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:

I hope I dont fall victim to the knee jerk effect of todays modl runs.  That said I took an image of the current SPS mesoscale 500mb analysis as well as the rgem to see compare its initialization vs actual mesoscale maps and there are some differences.  The actual observations have both the 546 line and 552 lines about 35miles or so north of where the rgem initialized.  It may not seem like much but IMO the heights are actually a tad higher out ahead of the ULL than what the REGM had.  Meaning the higher the hieghts along the coast the better for us.



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WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
Dec 11th = coating
Dec 17th = 4.2
Jan 5th-6th = 3"
Jan 7th = 10.4"

Jan 14th = 1.75"
Jan 31st = 2.5"
Feb 9th = 12"
March 10th = 4.8"
March 14th = 3.5"
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Re: 2016 Spring Snowstorm: Observations & Snow Map

Post by snow247 on Sat Mar 19, 2016 11:41 pm

GFS is east.
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Re: 2016 Spring Snowstorm: Observations & Snow Map

Post by oldtimer on Sun Mar 20, 2016 12:13 am

Snow Anymore info on the GFS. More east than last run?

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Re: 2016 Spring Snowstorm: Observations & Snow Map

Post by Snow88 on Sun Mar 20, 2016 1:17 am

Ukie has a tight gradient. Good run from NYC east . way less precip west of NYC. GGEM is also good from NYC east. GEFS and GEPS also east.
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Re: 2016 Spring Snowstorm: Observations & Snow Map

Post by nutleyblizzard on Sun Mar 20, 2016 6:21 am

Don't have access of snow maps but the 6z Nam came west.
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Re: 2016 Spring Snowstorm: Observations & Snow Map

Post by jake732 on Sun Mar 20, 2016 6:37 am

Hearing the nam is west giving snj cnj big hits. Can anyone confirm
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Re: 2016 Spring Snowstorm: Observations & Snow Map

Post by mmanisca on Sun Mar 20, 2016 6:45 am

jake732 wrote:Hearing the nam is west giving snj  cnj  big  hits. Can anyone confirm

Nam showing about 5-7 inches in that area
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Re: 2016 Spring Snowstorm: Observations & Snow Map

Post by jake732 on Sun Mar 20, 2016 7:04 am

Bernie just tweeted me for cnj snj a few inches. Y is nam showing more? Does he not trust it?
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Re: 2016 Spring Snowstorm: Observations & Snow Map

Post by mmanisca on Sun Mar 20, 2016 7:08 am

Well that's what the nam shows, that doesn't make it the reality!
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Re: 2016 Spring Snowstorm: Observations & Snow Map

Post by docstox12 on Sun Mar 20, 2016 8:06 am

25.8, 55%. 29.90 r. Partly cloudy.

I like Frank's map the best because it gives me 3 inches but after looking at NWS advisories and warnings, it looks like YET AGAIN this storm goes S and E of me and I get a coating to an inch.

Can't wait for this misery to end and get on with fishing and out of doors activities in the warm sun.
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Re: 2016 Spring Snowstorm: Observations & Snow Map

Post by snow247 on Sun Mar 20, 2016 8:14 am

docstox12 wrote:it looks like YET AGAIN this storm goes S and E of me and I get a coating to an inch.

That's the new normal, doc. We should really look into why every storm has screwed N & W areas the past few years. I am starting to believe it's not just bad luck.
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Re: 2016 Spring Snowstorm: Observations & Snow Map

Post by Frank_Wx on Sun Mar 20, 2016 8:42 am


_________________
Snow Accumulation Archive
2013-2014: 62.1"
2014-2015: 56.0"
2015-2016: 34.0"
2016-2017: 19.0"

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Re: 2016 Spring Snowstorm: Observations & Snow Map

Post by sroc4 on Sun Mar 20, 2016 8:45 am

snow247 wrote:
docstox12 wrote:it looks like YET AGAIN this storm goes S and E of me and I get a coating to an inch.

That's the new normal, doc. We should really look into why every storm has screwed N & W areas the past few years. I am starting to believe it's not just bad luck.

Doc and or snow do you guys have a reference for snow totals for your areas over the last few decades?

_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
Dec 11th = coating
Dec 17th = 4.2
Jan 5th-6th = 3"
Jan 7th = 10.4"

Jan 14th = 1.75"
Jan 31st = 2.5"
Feb 9th = 12"
March 10th = 4.8"
March 14th = 3.5"
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Re: 2016 Spring Snowstorm: Observations & Snow Map

Post by docstox12 on Sun Mar 20, 2016 8:47 am

snow247 wrote:
docstox12 wrote:it looks like YET AGAIN this storm goes S and E of me and I get a coating to an inch.

That's the new normal, doc. We should really look into why every storm has screwed N & W areas the past few years. I am starting to believe it's not just bad luck.

No, snow it is not bad luck.There has been a big change in the upper wind patterns and I am not qualified to call it climate change but it IS a change and it is set in concrete.I make my living as a trader of various investment vehicles and I would make a fortune trading long storms going S and E! You just can't lose.Wish I could find a "Long storms S and E ETF", LOL!
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Re: 2016 Spring Snowstorm: Observations & Snow Map

Post by jake732 on Sun Mar 20, 2016 8:47 am

Frank, can we trust that map??? Shows big snow
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