Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2

Bob u should let frank know ur a merologist he will change ur stars to signify that I'm sorry did not realize u a pro met too.

Bob, I cannot say that I disagree about the models haha it's actually kind of sad that with all of the technology we have, they are still so unrefined. Mother Nature ultimately has the final say, and I'm anxious to see wha the final result is. If I'm wrong, I'll be the first to admit it. But as I said, I personally do not have enough signals to feel good about writing this off and think that the worst is behind already. This system has defied modeling the whole way, so why should it stop now? Lol

Jman, one thing to realize is that I'm young, only 24, and have a lot to learn. Bob has been doing this a lot longer than I've even been alive haha always a good idea to listen to people who are older and wiser than you; they always know more ahah which is why I am absolutely not saying he is wrong and/or that I am right. Simply discussing my opinion with his.

Had no idea u were so young just noted ur age now. but im just an enthusiast I'm sorry I do not have a lot to offer.

rb, your a good kid!!! Keep it up!

Both of u have good pts. One of you is right or a blend. We will see.

I have a degree in meteorology, was a weather forecaster for about a year for a small company in teterboro after college. Then I was off doing something else but the passion never left me. Never stopped trying to forecast the weather for family and friends!

Haha thanks Teterboro.........National Weather Station??

I appreciate all the effort put in here and the information is a great learning tool for me personally so please everyone keep posting. As far as hermine the threat is over for anyone who lives away from the coast. I would say 20 miles or more. Anyone right along the coast still needs to follow carefully but even there the odds are against any Major Impact. Actually this was never a threat for at least half of our area. If you drew a line from Shelton Connecticut to White Plains towards Morristown then South dividing Jersey in half this was never a threat for anyone west of that line ever in this long process of tracking this storm

It was called the National Weather Corporation. We did weather forecasting and flight planning for corporate aircraft. The guy that ran the flight planning used a Texas Instrument , get this, handmade computer from the 70's to run the flight planning program. Real basic stuff.

Agreed with that statement, Al. Good way to depict the threat zone. And I think it's the same place, Bob, just under a different name now. I applied there a while back haha actually work for Connecticut Weather now.

Yeah I dont think theres enough support and its still been moving ENE wobbling so I'd say the ECM/GFS/NAM combo are most likely to verify.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=16#

Our floodgates just closed and will stay closed for the night as a precaution...they will re access in the morning...Hope everyone has a safe night!

Can we get some links of the westward predicting models? Every forecast that I'm seeing has this thing not just moving east, but way east

Just got back from a day at the beach and then dinner. Gorgeous day out. Waters unswimmable, but you could wade in up to your knee if you were careful. went to walk the dog around the neighborhood with my wife. Not a cloud in the sky, and not a single breath of wind. A fart is gustier than what's going on outside right now. Calm is an understatement and I'm on the coast. What a disastrous dud this "storm" turned out to be!!

Looks like the NAM is squishing Hermine to death

Evacuation on point pleasant beach. Not from hermine tho

You have gotta be kidding me! The EURO bring Hermine back west by a lot. Here is hr 48 of the 9/5 0Z EURO. Still off our coast. I know it is at 1001 mb, but still, can the ECMWF really be trusted???

Wow didnt see the EURO, but some other oddballs like the latest SREFs still come back (although not as overly amped as earlier runs, its still there) many members too, the Canadian, the GFS looked a nudge further west but it could have been me, sleep deprived. NAM is being NAM. Interesting obs on IR sat, look where the new convection is firing

http://www.intellicast.com/Global/Satellite/Infrared.aspx?region=hiusa&animate=true

Satellite

http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_wv.php?inv=0&t=l12®ion=us

3z SREFs

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SREF21PRSNE_3z/srefloop.html#picture

6z NAM
http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/WRF_6z/wrf42.html

Sends the storm pretty far NE initally, takes a sharp left but rapidly weakens to remnants and makes landfall over eastern LI. Curious to see what next run of hurricane models and 4k NAM do with it.

6z RGEM
http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html

hey I am going to make a observation..look at how elongated the center of the wind pattern is today as compared to yesterday were it the center was very tight and controlled...I know I am untrained...just thought I would throw this image out there...

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/500hPa/orthographic=-74.84,36.66,1179/loc=-74.076,40.281

You're at 500mb layer, switch it to surface.

So the NHC projection brings it about 100-150 back to the west-northwest in the next 24 hours or so before turning back north and then northeast. Still has 70 mph at the center and a decent size tropical storm force wind field. The satellite this morning also seems to show the cloud field expanding a bit. My own two eyes show me a lot more cloud cover in the eastern sky from my house this morning than yesterday. So I'm thinking down at the shore (where frankly I should have stayed Saturday) they will probably be under cloudy skies with increasingly gusty winds most of today and they probably will have some flooding on the barrier islands especially at high tide. Around here the only question appears to be (since obviously this isn't a rain event for anyone probably even at the shore) is will the cloud cover and wind field make it back to the rest of NJ and make this a cloudy and windy day, or will it only affect the shore and we remain mostly sunny with a light breeze as we did Saturday and Sunday.

Even though some models show this turn to the west (almost all show some west wobble, but a significant shift) starting supposedly some time soon, I am still doubtful, since yesterday, the storm has barely moved on SPC meso analysis, maybe stregnthened a bit and moved a bit to the north, but nothing directly westward yet besides satellite convection. An interesting scenario for sure.

6z 4k is odd, north, than due west, than northwest, than north again, landfalling and dissipating as a 1008 low over the twin forks of LI and the sound. This is a warm core system still, not a extratropical hybrid like sandy with an occlusion and negative block where the path was definitively and quickly to the WNW when it was captured. These systems have minds of their own and are extremely difficult to model, this should not have to be stated but lack of traffic here and other boards is a little concerning to me. Especially with clouds and precipitation re-emerging from the south east, both visible on radar and in the sky. Now with this storm I really dont have a call at this point, I'd lean with it staying far offshore based on upper level obs but then again the slight west tick on some overnight runs may be indicative of a complex setup the models are are struggling with and have been. Or they will just keep being wrong and it goes completely out to sea lol, but its not a winter storm, its highly unpredictable and I'd watch its center location and track history plot if I was anyone near the coast just to be safe.

NJ Weather I am here watching and reading. But true. Everyone is now in the downplay mode.